2022: Birth Year Of The Multipolar world

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In 2022, emerging nations made it clear that they are not willing to tolerate the US-led unipolar world order anymore.

Written by Lucas Leiroz, researcher in Social Sciences at the Rural Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; geopolitical consultant.

2022 was full of geopolitically important events. Despite being a year marked by conflicts, escalation of tensions and high risks, at the same time it was the mark of an extremely significant multipolar turn.

The year began amid rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which continued to deteriorate and evolve into an open conflict. In late 2021, increasingly adhering to Western anti-Russian paranoia, Kiev began a new campaign of excessive militarization, bringing substantial risks to Russian national security. The Ukrainian neo-Nazi regime also promoted an escalation in the civil war and, according to several intelligence reports released by the Russian government, would be planning a “final solution” to the civil war in the east, with the absolute extermination of the Donbass’ resistance.

To stop this violence and neutralize the risks to its own security, on February 24, Moscow launched a special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine. With that, Moscow finally intervened in the eight-year conflict between ethnic Russians and Ukrainian neo-Nazi forces, bringing hope to the people of Donbass.

At first, NATO refused to participate actively in the conflict, sending only financial and humanitarian aid. But the situation began to change in April, when the first arms packages were sent to Kiev. Moscow ignored the move in order to avoid escalation, and then the Atlantic alliance began a wave of systematic arms shipments, starting to participate actively in the conflict – which is now nothing more than a NATO proxy war against Russia.

Russia is obviously superior militarily, with Ukraine having no chance of victory. But the Western insistence on sending arms, instead of mediating peace, makes it possible for the Ukrainians to prolong the conflict, even without making military progress. Furthermore, it is estimated that one-third of the soldiers currently in combat on the Ukrainian side are foreign mercenaries, including retired NATO soldiers – which shows that the West is indeed at war with Russia.

In this policy of anti-Russian aggression, US allies obey Washington’s orders even without benefiting in any way. The year ends with winter arriving in Europe and generating an unprecedented energy crisis, as the EU decided to adhere to the policy of economic sanctions, which has been encouraged by the US against Russia since the beginning of the operation in Ukraine. The US, UK and EU promote all sorts of boycotts against Moscow, while, on the other hand, the emerging world rejects this anti-strategic policy and builds an order more and more based on pragmatism and solidarity.

The plan to boycott the Russian economy with coercion went absolutely wrong, as the sanctions forced even greater integration between Russia, China and India – and consequently between these countries and all other emerging partners that maintain close ties with them. Furthermore, the current situation has accelerated the de-dollarization process, with Russia currently trading energy and oil in rubles.

With no chance of victory in Ukraine, the West resorts to attacks on its enemies in other parts of the world. In August, US Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, violating Chinese sovereignty over the island, as Beijing had formally prohibited the visit. The case generated an unprecedented security crisis, with China responding to American provocation through military dissuasion exercises in the Taiwan Strait. Indeed, there is danger of escalation in the near future, and, very irresponsibly, the US promises to support Taiwan militarily if China intervenes on the island, which puts the world at serious risk.

At the same time, the US is trying at all costs to foment social chaos in China in other ways. Protests against the Chinese health policy are encouraged, for example. The aim is to destabilize the country in every possible way. Something similar happens in Iran, where an attempt of color revolution was started in October, with violent protests taking place, even with the use of firearms and terrorist methods by the “demonstrators”.

Also, as a domino-effect, other security crises have been worsening recently.For example, Azerbaijani terrorists began roadblocks and generated a humanitarian crisis in the Artsakh region, as well as started several provocations against Russian peacekeepers. Another point of constant friction has been Kosovo, where armed groups have attacked Serbian forces and disrespected existing peace conventions.

In all cases, what we can see is a simple process of attempt by pro-Western forces to foment chaos in as many regions as possible to try to obtain victories in places other than Ukraine, where the Russians maintain control over the military situation. Most of these destabilization and boycott attempts have been neutralized, but the risks of escalation and the emergence of new conflicts are real.

In fact, the world situation will only stabilize when the US realizes that the unipolar world order can no longer be maintained. 2022 was the birth year of multipolarity, as emerging countries came together to say “no” to Western sanctions and continue trading freely with Russia and China. Obviously, the BRICS are a key player in this world transition, as we can see with the growing interest on the part of new countries to join the group.

In 2023, the situation will certainly continue in the same direction. Geopolitical changes tend to be positive for countries in favor of multipolarity, but the process of consolidating these changes will be done with a lot of struggle and conflict, as the West will resist as much as possible, with all its means. At some point, however, the West will have to admit its defeat and negotiate with the emerging countries a peaceful reformulation of the global order.

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