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The United States and its allies from the so-called “civilized world” have one time faced the destruction policy and unwillingness of the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance to save Aleppo from the humanitarian crisis, and to negotiate a peaceful solution of the conflict, transferring the power in Syria from the democratically elected president to Al-Qaeda linked militants, backed by the US-led block.
Instead, Syrian forces, backed by Russia and Iran, non-democratically purged terrorists in Aleppo city and saved eastern Aleppo civilians that had been held hostage in the area.
What now?
The mainstream media already called this operation the biggest victory of ‘Assad regime’ in the ongoing war in military, PR and diplomatic terms. However, the war is far from its over in Syria.
Now, Russian and Syrian engineering units are working in Aleppo city to demine its residential areas and allow local population to return their homes. At the same time, a large-scale operation aimed to restore the crucial city infrastructure is set to be started. Providing of medical assistance, including evacuation of violently ill people to Damasucs, Tehran or Moscow, energy, food and water supplies are the top-priority. The next step is restoration of hospitals, schools and other social and infrastructure objects.
In military terms, the liberation of Aleppo means that over 25,000 pro-government fighters that used to be involved in it are now free and a part of it can be redeployed to other front-lines. Before launching new full-scale operations, the Syrian military and its allies will need to regroup, resupply and rotate their forces and to improve security of the Aleppo countryside.
Then, government forces will likely focus on purging miltiant-held pockets near Homs and Damascus. Every pocket draws forces and facilities that the Syrian army could use at other frontlines. So, these areas have to be liberated by force or by agreements with militant groups and to secured by police formations. If all small pockets will be liberated, Damasucs will get a significant number of soldiers for further operations across Syria.
The advance in the direction of al-Bab also looks not likely because this could lead to full-scale military confrontation with the Turkish Armed Forces. However, the Syrian government will likely provide assistance to Kurdish YPG forces if they decide to clean some al-Bab outskirts from pro-Turkish militant groups. The realism of this scenario highly depends on existence or non-existance of some unofficial diplomatic agreements in the Damascus-Tehran-Ankara-Russia axis.
Palmyra will be a high priority front in the nearest future. Major ISIS advance pushed government forces to deploy reinforcements to the area and to focus on retaiking the ancient city that ISIS wants to use as gates to central Syria.
The start of major operation in Idlib province will remain the strategic priority of Damascus, Moscow and Tehran in the midterm. The successful advance will allow to purge the remaining al-Qaeda linked formations in the area and to push to reconciliation organizations that would succeed in cutting off ties with hard-line groups such Jabhat al-Nusra, Jaish al-Islam and Ahrar al-Sham. In case of further radicalization of the so-called “opposition”, the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance will be pushed to repeat Aleppo-like scenario in Idlib province.
With loss in Aleppo, the US-led block and its proteges in Syria lost negotiating positions on the diplomatic level of the ongoing conflict. Right now, to unite efforts and to bargain a kind of economic autonomy and a piece of power in the Assad government looks the only practical solution of their problems. If anti-Assad forces in Syria keep to use Obama’s mantra ‘Assad must go’ in the modern situation, they will likely come to another devastating military defeat after which terms and conditions of possible reconciliation will be much worser than now.
The support of the mainstream media and so-called non-governmental organizations that continue attempts to accuse the Syrian military and its supporters in war crimes will not help because propaganda statements cannot change the objective reality on the ground. However, Damascus, Tehran and Moscow have to be ready to repel a new wave of media and diplomatic attacks from different directions.
Fireworks please!! And maybe more bombing around Tiyas to help celebrate the occasion, along with more white phosphorus to light up the night sky! This may wake up ISUS, don’t let them rest. Tiger forces may be on the road right now, driving south. But in Idlib province, they don’t appear that happy (Why so many sad faces?)
I assume that a safety zone around Aleppo will be high on the list too. And the highway towards Aleppo.
Specially considering what happened to Palmyra if you need 4000 heads to take out SAA/Allies defenses then an attack from North by FSA/Turks and south from JN and Cahoots with a force way more than 4000 can easily reverse the situation. Defenders are not trained for blitzkrieg and ISIS has shown that this can be done.
Difference between SAA and invading forces is simple: while SAA has to be careful while operating in residential areas, rebels don’t care about that. Hence the speed of invasion/liberation difference.
Another thing to consider is to think of VBIEDs, SAA also need to invest in remote controlled exploding vehicles just to return the same kind of gift to the sender.
Remember the main enemy is the US or at least until the current administration is departed and let me focus on the “at least”. So the best to do is to ally with Turkey with terms stressing on that Aleppo city front won’t be disrupted thanks to Turkish support.
The current pressure should be raised on pockets around Damascus and Daraa and culminate to military victory or preferably reconciliation outcome. Most of operative ground forces should be redirected to Eastern Homs to retake a large swath east up to Arrak and fortifying all the hills surrounding western Palmyra’s vicinity ; Russia should not be shy of using nuclear weapons to achieve this deed (either you’re a superpower or you’re not !) Build the T-4 airbase and deploy Russian attack aircraft, Syrian MiG-29 fighters and S-400 air defenses with the Russian personnel to defend it and establish a definite air superiority in eastern Syria..
The moment Russia goes nuclear in Syria it will have lost the war. It will bring in the US and NATO with the mandate to chase thecRusdians out. This will be followed up by massive sanctions on Russia and whoever trades with her, direct action in Ukraine would also be on the table.
Lets hope Russian leaders er smarter than this.
The political implication of using nukes are second to none. Only the US and maybe China could survive the political fallout, Russia would simply disappear from the world stage, and may be the map.
IF Russia use nuclear weapons, the western countries pull back. It would be enough attack riyad and quatar with conventional missiels and say: next time will be nuclear warhead. and say: the integrity of syrian territory is garanteed with russian nuclear powers. so, all rats would flee ant the price of oil would rise over 100$/barrel.
True, but it will not happen. Using SNW in the global theater of war is not on the books. That’s not a method of choice for cutting down the population of the world.
You seem to not grasp the cultural significance of nukes in the western psyche. Should such weapons be used Russian bases in Syria would themselves become targets. May be even the kutznesov group too. Funny as it might seem, even the europeans would grow balls. And crippeling sanctions would be in place at least until the fall of the putin regime. The oil price would be irrelevant for Rusdia, just like it was for Iran before the “deal”
no way!
Go “Viking”, do some light yoga stretching, then quietly wash the dishes and feed the kids proper vegan, or risk going to jail for raping your wife 14 years ago. You know, that other time when she didn’t sign the individual coitus agreement/waiver in her clearest mind. You have more pressing, realistic issues to deal with, than it is to threaten the Russians with nuclear holocaust and famine, like fighting for gender equality at home. Am I grasping the cultural significance enough?
Why you are talking about sweden escapes me… All western europeans seems to have been raised with the “nuke” as the ultimate criminal act, it has a religious conotation in the western euopean phsyche. It might not be wrong to claim it has replaced christianity is not far off, and as its well known fanatics dont act reasonably.
So the consequeses for any nukelar strike will be severe, for Russias part its very doubtfull that the country would survive at all.
Peter… I sound smart but look into hustory. I don’t concuer the thought that using nukes would be wrong. But history says that taking Russia out of the map was attempted many times. Found to be impossible so far.
Few have really tried, it was an option open to the Clinton administration had they chosed to do it. Russia today have much more in common With the Tsarist Russia of 1914 than the Empire of 1812 and The USSR of 1940’s. Its ecconomy is simply completely outdated and easily disrupted. Should the EU and USA really chose to squeeze the Russains to pieces its easily done through really severe sanctions. Such sanction would need something really outrageous to even be considered a nuke would do it. No trade With Russia and no trade With whoever trades With Russia. This was done on a alimited scale agains Iran and it worked. After a Nuclear strike by Russia the sanctions would be on everything, not just oil. And Putin would probably be gone within months, and if regions breaking With kremlin would have their sanctions lifted I Guess there wouldnt be much left within two years.
While the war is far from over, the Syrians and it’s allies should pause and celebrate the retaking of east Aleppo. Just not for long.
Without Aleppo or any of the major cities in Syria, the opposition is going to have a hard time justifying their existence, and any hope for a partitioning (balkanization) of Syria as there is no viable piece of ground that would economically/politically support them. Without this element, what is the west and it’s “moderate rebels” negotiating for? Besides, the lie is out, the civilians inside east Aleppo were being held against their will, so again, who is going to split the country up? With the retaking of east Aleppo the terrorists have lost their major weapon, propaganda and the safety of a large number of non-combatants.
With Assad staying as President, and no partitioning of Syria, the west has lost most everything they wanted. I see no grounds for discussions with such groups as the High Negotiations Committee. Syria and the Russians are holding most all the cards.
Now, lets concentrate on ISIS.
When it comes to the integrity of the Syrian sovereign state prospects are not looking good. SAA has found itself between a rock and a hard. RU seems to be caving in. It has run out of steam while many golden opportunities have been missed. There is also a conflict of various interests regarding the outcome of Syrian war among the RU ruling elite aka shadow government. RU hasn’t succeeded to assert itself as a superpower on the world’s stage because it lacks vision. It seems like their goal has been to attain a position of a power broker in partnership with US and EU and this has not been what the Western World has envisioned as their role. So what do you do? If you can’t beat them (the evil ones) then the only option left is to join them. I’m taking from human point of view. There are many in this discussion space who can’t look straight into the eyes of truth and my primary intention is not to harm anybody by what I’ve just said. Somehow intuitively we are bent on expecting just cause to win over evil one. And maybe it’s winning but not in the context we are expecting to. Surely it will win eventually but not for now and we will have to cope with it until it happens. Never the less it’s worth of fighting it but not on your own with our limited human resources.
If the Oligarchs in Russia which have Interests with Israel, If these have leverage over others and dominate the Geostrategic narrative Concerning Syria,Iraq and Iran. The US might not need to power on against Iran, As Syria May be left to a fragile patchwork in the center and East which finds Iran The party deciding if Shia crescent is worth it,…as they may be near alone in the contest With Israel,Jordan,Saudi,Kurd,…
Iran might not have anything to table to Russia to expend and risk. Israel might not even press for the Golan oil…but work the offshore gas fields and Watch Iran struggle forward.
Thank you for your thoughtful reply. I appreciate it. Unfortunately, I disagree with many of your positions.
Russia has overcome it’s greatest military weakness, the ability of the US to project power with no repercussions. What Brzezinski called the projection of warfare from afar. Russia has very successfully shown its latest military capabilities and they are impressive. It’s a complete package. Notice that once Russia brought its missiles to the battlefield, there was no more mention of “No-fly-zones”. The west was forced to watch from the sidelines. Russia is capable enough to end the 25+ year period of US hegemony.
Nobody is going to split up Syria. The Syrians themselves will not allow for anything that threatens the integrity of Syrian sovereignty. To the Syrians, who are united, this is an existential issue.
I agree that many feel “Somehow intuitively we are bent on expecting just cause to win over evil one. “, but I believe the reality is that the pieces are in place to allow the small countries of the world to relax. We do not have to rely on our beliefs of just causes.
There are two elements in play, military and economics. The Russians have shown they have the military component. Within the last couple of months many of the up-and-coming countries, i.e., those most likely to show economic growth, have wanted to sign bilateral free trade agreements with Russia and also to some degree China. Even Japan is saying that the Russian banking and legal system are becoming transparent and established enough for trade to occur between the countries. The ability of Russia to trade outside of the west is very important. This allows them to wait out the west’s imposed economic sanctions. The sanctions have not worked.
Nobody has to rely on faith, the Syrians are going to stay a sovereign nation, and Russia is a world class player and balance to the power of the US. Good things will happen.
Good try :) “surrender to the evil because its way too powerful anyway” but… Look in the history – Russians think differently. They would not bend to NWO.
Time to focus on the Zionist cancer now.
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201612141048526887-israel-same-sex-marriage-citizenship/
What now?? Simple they will get rid of the terrorists by sending them to Europe. Exactly what Castro did when he emptied his asylums and jails into Miami when Kennedy said ‘refugees from Cuba are welcome’ Now look at drug fuelled Miami the once luxury playground of the rich.
SAA should start a full-scale attack on aleppos countryside. Start with Rashideen 4, Research Center and Khan Touman! Then retake the M4 Hama-Aleppo Highway. In the same time they have to clean the Jihadi-pockets near Homs, Damascus and Daraa. Build Fortifications around Aleppo! And fill the trenches up with gunners that have balls!
fortify allepo, retake palmyra squeeze the CIA rats out of syria