0 $
2,500 $
5,000 $
1,450 $
14 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE END OF APRIL

American Strategists Fearing War With Russia

Support SouthFront

American Strategists Fearing War With Russia

Click to see the full-size image

Written by Lucas Leiroz, journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant

Apparently, American strategists are concerned about the future of US-Russian relations in a post-Ukrainian conflict scenario. In a recent report, one of the most important US think tanks stated that Washington’s implementation of a “hardline” policy in Europe could lead to a direct war with Russia, encouraging American decision-makers to rethink the country’s European policy.

The document was published by the Rand Corporation. According to the think tank’s analysts, if the US tightens its policies in Europe after the conflict, a situation of war with Russia will become very likely. Experts do not believe that Washington is capable of deterring Russia through the militarization of Europe, with all policies in the region becoming forms of provocation against Moscow.

“A hardline postwar US strategy in Europe could make conflict with Russia more — not less — likely,” the report reads.

Analysts also warn of the danger of American policies damaging the unity of the Western bloc. According to them, by implementing bellicose measures in Europe, Washington could come to be seen as a provocateur by its own European partners – mainly France and Germany. Obviously, this would generate discontent and crisis in EU-US relations, as Europeans would feel directly threatened by the imminence of a conflict, given their geographical location close to Russia – which would supposedly make them “easy targets”.

“Russia reinvigorated its defense industry during the war, addressed some military challenges (such as poor training), and gained lethal aid from China. Although NATO is still stronger than Russia, hardline postwar U.S. policies, such as bilateral agreements to deploy more forces to Eastern Europe, lead some allies (such as France and Germany) to see the United States as a provocateur. As a result, those allies’ commitments to collective defense are less robust (…) Both the United States and Russia bolster their force postures along the NATO-Russia frontier. Diplomatic relations remain poor and threat perceptions run high, creating conditions ripe for misperception about intentions. Therefore, the risk of catastrophic conflict is higher than before the war in Ukraine, even if the absolute risk remains low,” Rand’s experts predicted.

The group also warned that a serious escalation of violence in the Ukrainian conflict could have irreversible negative consequences for US’ interests in Europe. American experts believe that at the current moment the best thing for NATO to do is to encourage Kiev and Moscow to negotiate and reach a ceasefire, trying to calm the situation as quickly as possible and reducing the damage on both sides.

However, analysts also state that, although the scenario of war is possible in the future, the current situation generates less fear, as it appears that the US is already taking measures to de-escalate tensions. They believe that Washington wants to resume dialogue on arms control and that it will not be willing to accept Kiev into NATO, thus reducing the risks of war with Russia. Unrealistically, Rand also believes that NATO’s deterrent power remains strong enough to prevent Russia from attacking other countries – although this could change in a post-conflict scenario, when Moscow will become even stronger.

“Washington’s willingness to return to bilateral arms control, its lack of support for deeper Ukrainian integration with NATO, and its restraint on engagement with other non-NATO former Soviet countries all reduce U.S.-Russia political tensions. Despite fears that such moves would embolden Russia, these less hardline policies do not undermine NATO’s already strong deterrent. After all, Russia did not attack NATO member states during the war, despite the allies’ unprecedented support for Ukraine.”

In fact, although there are many interesting points in this analysis, most of Rand’s arguments are biased and baseless. Obviously, an escalation in the militarization of Europe would lead to a scenario of increasing tensions between the US and Russia, which could end in a direct conflict. It is curious to see that even radically anti-Russian think tanks like the Rand Corporation are already admitting this. In practice, this shows how the West’s defeat in Ukraine is already being widely recognized.

However, analysts are wrong in assessing that the US is already taking steps to prevent the worst-case scenario. There is no diplomatic goodwill from the US to resume arms control dialogue with Russia – on the contrary, more and more American aggressive mentality is making the treaties fail, promoting a new arms race.

In the same sense, it is clear that NATO is weakened and at a disadvantage when compared to Russian military capacity. The Western alliance has invested heavily in Ukraine to “wear down” Moscow, spending massive amounts of money and weapons on pointless and unwinnable battles. The bloc is weakened and does not have deterrent power enough to threaten Russia. Therefore, the fact that Russia has not attacked any NATO country is not a consequence of any deterrence or de-escalation measure, but of the lack of Russian interest in waging any war.

Despite the errors in analysis, it would be interesting for the report to be read by American decision makers, so that they can start thinking about the post-conflict scenario. Increasing the militarization of Europe may not only pose a risk of war with Russia, but may be a step towards the destruction of NATO itself, as the Europeans may decide to no longer be used as cannon fodder for American plans.

You can follow Lucas on Twitter and Telegram.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

Support SouthFront

SouthFront

Subscribe
Notify of
guest
40 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
hohou

fake news, us mic needs forever war to sell weapons and weapons they are seliing to ukraine at cost of eu and u.s. taxpayers are only small fraction of that business. because of fearmongering in europe they are selling f35s, radars, missiles and antimissile system by hundreds and making record profits. they don’t fear war against russia, they only fear miscalculation and russian strategic nukes. or maybe not.

hash
hashed
hohou

maybe they want strategic nuclear war and annihilation of the humanity so only few “elites” survive and have the whole planet for themselves. a bit radioactive planet but you know, chernobyl nature is in better shape then anytime before so it is a only a small disadvantage for them as they are running they dark agenda to grab the whole world under their control for 1000 years already. they can afford to wait 50 years in nuclear shelter to give the whole planet to their descendants.

hohou

they are sociopaths so nobody knows what is in their mind.

Edgar Zetar

you are a moron, it’s impossible to get a full scale nuclear war. they are protocols, hidden treaties between usa and ussr, and also hidden treaties in the united nations and the security council of u.n. there is no way they could engage in a full scale nuclear war, maybe a tiny regional nuclear war but not a full scale. also, there is a lot of western propaganda that says that only one nuclear bomb could cause so much damage, and it’s not like that.

Edgar Zetar

great comment. but liked or not you should engage the usa empire using diplomacy, they ruled the western world. guess by now, russia is fully aware that: ‘pretending, cheating, lying and stealing’ are the foundation of western civilization diplomacy, but you must engage them anyway

fat boy slim here

the usa has no chances to win a war against russia. either both will suffer under the atomic armagedom or russia will manage to survive if she strikes first, kill the sats and activate the s-550s at the same time

hash
hashed
Last edited 2 months ago by fat boy slim here
hohou

maybe they don’t fear nuclear armagedon ? maybe they made simulations that if they strike first with enough precise nuclear warheads from the space, they can destroy nearly all russian and chinese icbms before they launch ? why musk has thousands of satelites ? isn’t it only a test for 1st nuclear strike from the space ?

Last edited 2 months ago by hohou
Devon

a wet dream of a moron.

jens holm

musk has some 25 sattelites only.

Fake Inspector

idiot. first of all: its also nk and belarussian nukes. second, the usa does not know where are all hypersonic nukes are hidden, wheelan tried to find out and ended up in prison. besides there are some nukes also in the stealth subs in the deeps of the 7 seas. so do your research before you make your claims, start by reading about the russian “dead hand system” that is specifically designed for the case case of an us first strike. son of a crack bitch.

Dstroj

“kill the sats and activate the s-550s at the same time”

slow down youngtown. before the 550 there is a scheduled five-two-five, complete with unnecessary oversized chrome grill and 28″ rollers.

go back to sleep muppethead…

during his sleep….. mmmmmm…. burgers….

fatboyclownshow…

Last edited 2 months ago by Dstroj
Obese murican boy lard here

video games lately?

Dstroj

the western fools never learn. don’t play poker with chessmasters…

hash
hashed
hohou

it simply doesn’t work like this. it is not a war u.s. against russia. it is war of u.s. (global) elites against all the world. they want to kill their “own” citizens as well. they want to depopulate the whole planet. it is a madness. if russians are killing ukrainians, it is perfect. if eu and especially germany is economically destroyed beyond repair, even better. they want next war in iran and it can start anytime. they will sell weapons to both sides, to kill as many people as possible.

jens holm

as long your kind only use old ussr deranged systems, you will understand less and lees.

your use of elite is far out too.

finally we dint collapse your empjre. wo did. not forget would for reations dint want to have ukraine as well belarus with us i eu and nato.

jens holm

i will remind you the ukraine part of ussr was an has been a very big tradeparther even when the tzars and communists had it. stalin sold to hitler from there too.

i see no destruction in western europe. we grow too much food and has to produce less by expencive and dirty fossils.

nothing is beyound repair and doing fine. its very visible in fx gdp and how long we live well.

Name

why are you talking to your other idiot account?

bloated gestapo mcfries

lost track of timespace.. meds kicked in…

name

its a spoiler.

he use my name and his mail is hidden. he copies others too and many fiktive accounts.

i make normal western text. you might not like it, but thats what it is.

you 2 only once mr and mrs name.

Clyde

there’s no way that last sentence was not the result of you pawing the keyboard right after an amyl nitrate popper hit.

name

i live here.

and nothing is beyound repair and do well. its very visible in fx gdp and how long we live well.

what is ou facts about it?

50% of electrity is by windpower and we sell ozemtic and wegogy til the rest of the wold. im a small shareholder

jens holm

sorry this is made by me – jens holm

Fake Inspector

“-finally we dint collapse your empjre. wo did. not forget woud for reations dint wan to have ukraine as wel belarus with us i eu and nato.” 🤣 🤣🤣 jens holm on drugs 16-02-2024

jens holm

your are kept away from the rest of the world in this too.

pavlov, potemkin, stalin and putin has done a good job.

Fake Inspector

me? i live in the west you dumb fuck ukra

captain hohol

right wing people in the united states know that their government is trying to sacrifice them because the current leftist administration and concern who are trying to keep in power in the united states plan on doing things that massively violate the united states constitution and will spark civil conflict.

hash
hashed
jens holm

far out. democats won and god biden insted of bernie sandiers.

only sanders is a kind of left ove there. i agree in they dont decide needed reforms.

jens holm

the first lines are corrects. trump is a reason, but he is no president.

hash
hashed
Dstroj

stop wraiting garbage jenny, u r a product of libtarded eu thinking, the shit in ur brain would require years of flushing…

Last edited 2 months ago by Dstroj
Name

jen’s holm has been outed as a jew from ukrotardia

jens holm

you migh be in a deep well only seeing the sky when putin remove his behind.

jens holm

i dont think. i refer to facts.

trump babled about it. it was demented from biden and his people. biden is decider and potus over there.

Fake Inspector

fake facts

williebrennan

biden can control his thoughts about as well as he can control his bowels.

which is to say not at all…lol

F**k NATO

biden the feeble minded common criminal risks the lives of billions while following the dim wit plans of rand corp. there is no future with globalism and deep state thinkers.

hash
hashed
jens holm

sure. he might unrisk them as well.

Jull

we see part of us establishement rallying to de-escalation us involvement in ukraine: tucker interview, musk statement, here rand.. on the opposite side, most media (globalist/uk controlled) are pushing the usa into this war.

hash
hashed
Edgar Zetar

usa empire won’t retreat, they will double down against russia. european union (eu) nato, are just tools created by the anglo empire. the children’s of europe were completely educated by usa anglo empire after wwii, received full doses of massive propaganda, those childrens now run europe countries like france and germany, so you cannot expect anything from them, just are lackeys to the empire masters. russia must use contention strategies against nato, usa empire and anglo british maquiavels

hash
hashed
Spiderman

the typical news of a russian gossip by a kremlinn parrot with less brain than a chicken, the normal thing is, no one is afraid of the new russian nazis but still there are people with their brains working but more succinctly with nato they don’t get involved, they are dogs but they are not crazy, they disappear from the map, for some reason russian propagandists think they are immune to radiation

hash
hashed
40
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x