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The world today, is on the brink of seeing a new conflict over Lebanon. While the chances for escalation are high, the essential pre-conditions for a new, large-scale war in the region, are still in the works.
On November 22, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri temporarily suspended his resignation following an alleged request by the country’s president Michel Aoun to reconsider the decision.
Hariri originally announced his resignation in a televised speech from the Saudi capital, Riyadh, on November 4. Hariri’s resignation sparked a new round of tensions between Saudi Arabia on one end and Lebanon with Hezbollah on the other.
Saudi Arabia accused Lebanon of “declaring war” on Riyadh by allowing Hezbollah “aggression” against the kingdom. Meanwhile, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman accused Tehran of delivering missiles to Yemen’s Houthi forces for use against the kingdom, an act he described as “direct military aggression”.
On November 19, an emergency meeting was held between Saudi Arabia and other Arab foreign ministers in Cairo, calling for a united front, to counter Iran and Hezbollah. In a declaration, issued after the meeting, the Arab League accused Hezbollah of “supporting terrorism and extremist groups in Arab countries, with advanced weapons and ballistic missiles.” In turn, the Lebanese authorities and Hezbollah said that Hariri was held captive in Saudi Arabia because he had not returned to Lebanon as he promised. On November 22, Hariri arrived at the Lebanese capital, Beirut, and suspended his resignation. This marked a new phase of the political standoff between the sides.
Hariri is a compromise figure in the Lebanese politics.
His appointment as the Lebanese prime minister was de-facto supported by Saudi Arabia, the United States and some influential groups in Lebanon. This move was aimed to serve the “interethnic dialogue” in Lebanon.
However, the recent developments in the Middle East, including the nearing end of the conflict in Syria and the growing influence and military capabilities of Hezbollah, have changed the political situation in Lebanon. Hezbollah units de-facto fulfil functions of the presidential guard. Lebanese special services and the special services of Hezbollah are deeply integrated. Hezbollah’s victories in Syria and humanitarian activities in Lebanon increased the movement’s popularity among people.
All these have taken place amid the developing crisis in Saudi Arabia where Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has launched a large-scale purge among the top officials, influential businesspersons and princes under the pretext of combating corruption. According to the experts, the move is aimed at consolidating the power of the crown prince and his father, King Salman. In general, the kingdom is seeking to shift its vector of development and to become a more secular state. In 5-10 years, it can even abandon Wahhabism as the official ideology. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is involved in an unsuccessful conflict in Yemen and a diplomatic crisis with Qatar. This situation fuels tensions and a competition for resources among the Saudi clans. As a result, the Saudi regime and the Saudi state in general, are now, in a weak position.
Let’s look at the interests of all parties.
On the one hand, the appearance of a new active foreign enemy could consolidate the Saudi population and its elites. The war with Hezbollah would allow the Kingdom to gain additional preferences from the United States. Furthermore, with Israel entering the conflict, the kingdom would significantly reduce the risks of losses in the direct military confrontation with Lebanon and Hezbollah.
On the other hand, Riyadh has a wide range of foreign and internal problems. Considering the current weakness of Riyadh, any push may lead to a fall of the colossus with feet of clay.
In the case of the conflict in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia will be involved in a military and diplomatic standoff on 3 fronts:
- North – Hezbollah and Iran;
- South – Yemen; and
- East – Qatar.
The conflict will also force a dramatic growth of oil prices. According to various experts, $150 per barrel can be expected by the end of the first month of the conflict, if it is to occur. Some may suppose that this scenario is beneficial for Saudi Arabia or clans that control Saudi Aramco, the largest oil exporter around the world. However, the expected guerrilla war, which will likely erupt in the Shia-populated, oil-rich part of the country, will level out the pros of this scenario. Additionally, there is always a chance, that the main combat actions will be moved to the Saudi territory.
Israel and the West, in general, are not interested in high oil prices. In turn, Russia and Iran, who will not be involved in the initial stages of the conflict, will receive an increase in revenue from this scenario. The problem is that Tehran and Moscow are not interested in this “big new war” as well. Such a conflict in the Middle East will pose a direct threat to their national security
Israel’s attitude is another issue. Tel Aviv believes that the growing influence of Hezbollah and Iran in the Middle East, particularly in Syria and Lebanon, is a critical challenge to its national security. The key issue is that Israeli military analysts understand that Hezbollah is now much more powerful than it was in 2006. Now, Hezbollah is a strong, experienced, military organization, tens of thousands troops strong, which has the needed forces and facilities to oppose a possible Israeli ground invasion in Lebanon.
Iran has also strengthened its positions in the region over the last ten years. It has reinforced its air defense with the Russian-made S-300 systems, strengthened its armed forces and got combat experience in Syria and other local conflicts. Tehran also strengthened its ideological positions among the Shia and even Sunni population which lives in the region.
Thus, Israel will decide to participate in a large-scale conflict in Lebanon only in the case of some extraordinary event. It is possible to assume that in the coming months, a large-scale war in Lebanon will not be initiated. Nonetheless, Israel will continue local acts of aggression conducting artillery and air strike on positions and infrastructure of Hezbollah in Syria and maybe in Lebanon. Israeli special forces will conduct operations aimed at eliminating top Hezbollah members and destroying the movement’s infrastructure in Lebanon and Syria. Saudi Arabia will likely support these Israeli actions. It is widely known that Riyadh would rather use a proxy and engage in clandestine warfare. This means that a peaceful life in the region will not come anytime soon.
In turn, Hezbollah still needs about 1.5 years to further strengthen its positions in Syria and to free additional forces, which could be used in other hot points. The movement will likely put an end to the separation of power in Lebanon. This would mean that Hezbollah and Lebanon would become synonyms. Hezbollah also needs time to expand its network in the Shia-populated part of Saudi Arabia. Additionally, as Hezbollah’s involvement in the Yemeni conflict deepens, the balance of power in the region may begin to shift, creating further setbacks of the Saudi-led coalition.
According to some estimates, Hezbollah will be ready for a new round of the “big game” in the Middle East in the spring of 2019.
No one will profit from a possible new war in the ME , yet it’s only the evi ill-wishers zionists’s wet dream that gentiles again would kill each other off in such a war (who are constantly trying to ignite a possible war either by an open war or by proxy invasion/terrorists war or by a false flag fake terrorist attack ) ,
The Syrian Arab Baathist Army will triumpth ! https://theuglytruth.wordpr… Reporting the truth: smoloko.com purestream-media.com syriatruths.com informationclearinghouse.info electronicintifada.net http://www.12160.info to fight and resist the evil zionists ZOG ,the evil zionists rothschild’s evil israHell and and the evil house of saud crypto-jews in saudi arabia wahhabia who do nothing but damage ( who’s king in the late 1960’s addressed all the UN and arab countries requested them to recognize and accept israHell as a country) and their allies’s control/occupation of governments and the arab land of palestine and its neighbouring arab countries, to fight and resist those zionists is to fight to remove them from governments and economic power without removing them out of these office from these positions and freezing their USD currency assets monopoly dominanting global markets and trades( the 1 dollar bill has shapes of the stars of david ) wars instigated by zionists bankers on sovereignt independent states and and against their territory’s integrity will continue and the zionists’s scheme to establish a one global government control could be all set .
they must be removed from these positons (by us who are fighting them and only by us ) in order to get international peace progress prosperity and a good better and more positive dialogue between all countries and their peoples who their own peoples will lead and decide what to do by and for themselves. manage what their internal and foreign affairs to other countries and people’s would be and not led by some private zionists’s monopoly organisation who wages wars on whoever they want and on behalf of whoever they control and whoever bans rothschild influence and rothschild’s-controlled banks into their country!
should such a future international peace progress proccess dialoge between countires is to be then israHell turkey saudi arabia eritrea/ethiopia and pkk-rojava-peshmerga-kurdistan could be excluded because of their evil role of their tyranny and the logic of them even not being officialy recognised as countries (or maybe even by then they would already cease to exist before that) but rather occupiers of stolen lands by wars of aggression who occupy arab Palestine land and other neighbouring arab countries’s lands and their natural resources assets illegally from wars of aggression like e.g. Yemen and Somalia afghanistan with daesh and AQAP muslim-brotherhood-extremists and taliban and other plots of the the mossadistic so called “alliance of periphery” with their puppet collaborators alCIAda and MI6 .
all of Western Sahara and its people will be freed from the corrupt dynasty government of morocco’s illegal occupation which has a long history of collaborating with the zionists’s mossad and will be a recognised country by all nations ( hassan II and the mossad were behind Mehdi Ben Barka’s dissapperance / kidnap / assassination !
Birobidzhan isn’t enough for the evil zionists’s obssesion of world domination conquest . . History wasn’t written in ink , history was written in blood
Zionist history is written in shit.
If Israel goes to war in Lebanon it will probably end up in Hezbollah getting strongholds also in the Golan Heights and Jordan close to Israel´s borders, and be even much stronger than they are today……..LOL And Israel will be whining and crying the same song again again.
Agreed; provided that the US does not intervene.
I am not so sure that the US has the ability any more. Especially as we learn that circa 60% of senior naval officers are suspended and being investigated for fraud and revealing navy deployments to a wealthy businessman.
The American people would also be shocked to see thousands of body bags coming home.
As for ability, intervention comes in many flavors. However, has there been a war in which the US didn’t like?
Sadly, we live in a time where the government is no longer afraid of public outrage. Back in the day, politicians would lose sleep if the public gets wind of their slightest improper behavior. Remember that photo with Sen. McCain with ISIS members? That photo alone would get McCain booted from office back then. Now? Nothing.
IMO, Israel still have a chance to get their war against Iran, where it would be fought by the US.
You are probably correct but I hope common sense would prevail in the US. Its a lot to expect these days though :)
USA give weapons. So, they intervene.
Arm Hezbollah with heavy weapons.
And with anti-aircraft missiles and Russia should make new basis in Iran and Lebanon.
Sometimes a storm comes whether you are ready or not.
Well in fact Israel and Saudi arabia started a war in 2012 vs Syria and Hezbollah using terrorist gangs as their dirty army!..nowdays in 2017 these mental illness gangs have been defeated..and now they look for how to “varnish” that defeat!…
They have killed more than 600K Syrians (mosty sunnis) to defeat Hezbollah. that shows you how Saudi Arabia is very dangerous for Sunnis themselfs.
I think Saudi Arabia will not last very long. Its implosion have already started!
A major thing is that if Saudi/Israhell/US/NATO war plans go ahead, then they will be taking on Russia backed by China. No one who takes on Russia ever wins. Viva Vladimir Vladimirovich, Rossiya, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and all those opposing the Empire of Chaos based in Washington, though with lackeys in Europe, the ME and even as far afield as Australia, where I happen to live.
http://dissidentvoice.org/July06/Corseri01.htm
I Am a Palestinian by Gary Corseri
July 1, 2006
Before Moses or the Romans, Before Jesus and Muhammad, Before the Turks and the English, We dwelled in this land.
We built cities out of the dust, Watered with our tears, Mortared with our joys; We fished the abundant seas, Blessed our children�s marriages In our cool olive groves.
We did not bother To give ourselves a name. We were �the People,� The ones who had always been.
Intruders came And marched across our land. They brought Sky Gods with weapons Of iron and steel. When we complained, They butchered our babies.
The old men prayed, And they were murdered where they prayed. The women keened And were murdered where they keened.
We wrote petitions to World Councils And were laughed off the stage. We appealed to the Great Powers For mercy, understanding, justice. Sometimes they listened politely. (We were pawns in their games.) Sometimes they yawned at our wounds.
We are a small people, and our skin is dark with the desert sun. White men with pink skin arrive from America, White women with pink babies come from England. This is their land, they say. And they call themselves Semites. But their skin is not the skin of the Semites. Their blond hair and blue eyes are not of the Semites.
While I am unfree, all men are unfree. While my children are walled in, all children are walled-in. Do you think we want less for our children than you want for yours? Do our children deserve less than yours? Is their innocence less precious? Less precious their tears and their laughter? Are they not, also, the children of this Earth?
Are our men less valiant, our women less defiant? You kill us six to one, and still we come back at you. We will never surrender. We are the People, the People of this land, And the People who live next door And in your dreams, and in your nightmares.
And we ask you, Big Fish, What kind of tapeworm tortures your insides? Have you lost all self-control, all honor? You talk of God, but bow before Moloch, Sacrificing your own children And the children of others. Your God grows fat on the sacrifice of others. Power and wealth consume you. You bulldoze mountains, you bulldoze women. You show us your names in your books But fail to discern our names Written in the roots of trees, Scratched in the ancient stones.
I am a Palestinian, And the roaring of a thousand tanks cannot still me. Truth is dark, and I see with my dark eyes. The Turks came, and before them, the others. The English came, and after them, the others. In the name of God, they murder our children. In the name of God, they are murdering God.
I am a Palestinian, And I will live and let live, But not if you take the means of living from me, Not if you belittle me or my wife or my children, Not if you spit on the grave of my father, And manhandle my mother, my brother and my sister. Troy has been; the great gold eagles of Rome Lie beneath the sands. While I am unfree, all men are unfree. While my children are walled-in, all children are walled-in. Time sharpens the tools of my trade. Suffering burnishes memory. I see with my dark eyes.
Gary Corseri
” While I am unfree, all men are unfree.”
This line on its own demonstrates the horrific reality of Khazarian tyranny in all its guises.
Great days indeed.usa ,saudi, turkey and israel all gone backwards since 2011 start to syria war.
I love hezbollah but hezbollah is not equal with Lebanon and Lebanon does not mean Hezbollah!
“Saudi Arabia accused Lebanon of “declaring war” on Riyadh by allowing Hezbollah “aggress”
KSA tried and failed to pick a fight with Qatar – it failed so now they’re trying Lebanon. It will fail too.