Politically, the Ukrainian leadership has been trying to provoke the Republic of Belarus into joining the ongoing conflict. However, Minsk has responded asymmetrically, in a way that could be more damaging to Kyiv than open military engagement. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko ordered the opening of three border crossings into Ukraine’s Rivne Oblast, where people can now cross without documents. Officially, this measure is intended to accommodate Ukrainian mushroom pickers who may accidentally cross into Belarusian territory. In practice, however, Lukashenko has effectively rolled out the welcome mat for men of draft age fleeing forced mobilization. This route has become popular among conscription evaders — and for one good reason: the Polesie region is a vast expanse of forests and marshes where sealing the border is nearly impossible.
Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine continue to trade blows at a relentless pace. On June 25, Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia and a number of fuel stations across multiple Ukrainian regions. By evening, missiles were raining down on Kyiv, hitting a major logistics warehouse. Five Iskander-M ballistic missiles were used in the strike on the capital. Overnight, Kremenchug was hit by a large-scale, combined attack: the city’s oil refinery and heating plant were struck, causing widespread power and water outages. Ukraine’s infrastructure minister estimated that Russian strikes have destroyed more than 150 fuel stations over the past two months alone. In Dnipro, a major logistics hub was destroyed by ballistic missiles. Overnight, energy infrastructure in the Izmail district of Odesa Oblast was also targeted, leaving parts of the region without electricity.
The precision of Russian strikes on rear-area targets continues to improve steadily. According to Ukrainian sources, use of guided Geran-2 kamikaze drones has increased 93-fold over the past year, rising from 141 units in March 2025 to over 13,000 in June 2026. Meanwhile, the use of conventional GPS-guided Shahed drones is reportedly declining, suggesting a systematic transition to newer guided variants.
Ukraine, for its part, is maintaining a high tempo of strikes deep inside Russian territory. Overnight, a mass drone attack on Moscow was repelled, and the city’s mayor reported that dozens of UAVs were shot down on approach. Seventy-three drones were intercepted over the Tula region, though power lines and an industrial facility in Novomoskovsk were damaged earlier. NASA’s fire monitoring system detected a blaze at the Novomoskovsk Power Plant.
Taken together, the conflict is increasingly focused on infrastructure, with both sides methodically targeting energy networks, logistics chains, and industrial facilities far behind the front lines. All signs point to the confrontation intensifying in the near future.
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