Boko Haram Is Nearing Its End

A screenshot taken from a video released by Boko Haram in 2014 shows the former leader of the group, Abubakar Shekau.

Boko Haram, officially known as Jama’at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da’wah wa’l-Jihad, appears to be nearing its end after receiving several large blows from the rival Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and the African Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF).

The most recent of the blows was dealt by the Niger Armed Force (FAN), which eliminated dozens of Haram terrorists and detained hundreds of followers of the group, including women and children, in a large attack last week.

Niger state television, Tele Sahel, reported that aerial surveillance spotted on March 7 a “massive movement of people ” along the Kamadougou Yoge River, which marks the border with Nigeria, who were heading towards Lake Chad.

The report said they were members of Boko Haram, who were fleeing their hideout in Sambisa forest in northeastern Nigeria after coming under pressure from ISWAP.

Seeking to prevent the terrorists and their followers from reaching Lake Chad, the FAN tried to negotiate a surrender, using envoys and air-dropped leaflets, but eventually launched a large attack on March 11 morning that involved the use of Russian-made Mi-35 gunship helicopters and newly-acquired Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 combat drones.

Around 30 Boko Haram terrorists were neutralized in the successful attack. 960 other people, most of whom were wives and children of the group’s terrorists, were detained, then taken to the town of Diffa where they were provided with food and medical care. Later, they were handed over to Nigerian authorities.

Boko Haram has been also facing increasing pressure from the Cameroon Armed Forces (FAC) and the Nigerian Armed Forces (NAF), also members of the MNJTF. The Voice of America reported on March 15 that recent operations against the terrorist group in northeastern Nigeria displaced some 3,000 people from northeastern Nigeria to Cameroon.

MNJTF announced in February that the month of March will be dedicated to wiping out remaining Boko Haram fighters in the border area. The multinational force said several attacks have been launched on Boko Haram strongholds, but did not specify how many terrorists have been killed or wounded.

Boko Haram originated in northeastern Nigeria in 2002 and later expanded its operations to Chad, Niger, northern Cameroon, and Mali. It was the world’s deadliest terror group during part of the mid-2010s. However In 2016, the group split, resulting in the emergence of the hostile ISWAP.

The ISIS affiliate is now the dominant force around Lake Chad. After killing Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau in 2021, the group seized swathes of territory under Boko Haram control.

According to the 2023 Global Terrorism Index (GTI) report, which was published on March 14, ISWAP’s lethality rate has increased in the northeastern Nigerian state of Borno this year, with the group recording 40 incidents that resulted in 168 deaths in 2022, compared to Boko Haram’s six incidents and 63 deaths. The report stated that the recent decline of Boko Haram has resulted in “substantial improvement in terrorism.”

While pressure from ISWAP and the MNJTF has weakened Boko Haram to the point of near collapse, the terrorist group remains violent. On March 8, the group’s terrorists killed at least 37 fishermen outside Guggo village in Borno. The fishermen were sorting out their catch of the day on the bank of a river when they were attacked by a dozen terrorists who were apparently looking to steal food and other supplies.

The United Nations says that Boko Haram’s main insurgency, which broke out in Nigeria in 2009 before spreading to neighboring countries, has so far claimed the lives of 36,000 people and displaced more than 3 million others. Most of the victims were Nigerians.

With Boko Haram nearing its end, MNJTF members, Nigeria, Benin, Cameroon, Chad and Niger, should begin preparing to step up the battle against ISWAP. The terrorist group’s rapid expansion around Lake Chad poses a serious threat to Nigeria’s neighboring countries. The group will likely benefit to a great extent from the near defeat of Boko Haram as it will become the sole recruiter of radical elements in the region.

Adding fuel to the fire is recent warnings of arms trafficking to Lake Chad. Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari said last November that weapons and ammunition supplied to Ukraine by Western countries to counter Russia have started to flow into West Africa, with many finding their way into the hands of terrorist groups in the region. ISWAP is likely one of the main beneficiaries of this trade.

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