Breakthrough In Hai And Battles For Novopavlivka: Russia Increases Pressure On Ukraine

In the Dnipropetrovsk sector, Russian forces are encircling Novopavlivka. The forces have also broken through to the eastern outskirts of Lyman. According to a Chinese publication, over half of the Ukrainian Armed Forces servicemen who have died are foreign mercenaries.

Dnipropetrovsk Sector

Following the establishment of control over Vyshnevoye, units of the «East» grouping are advancing westwards in cooperation with units attacking Danilovka from the Yegorovka area. Advancements were also noted further north in the Novooleksandrivka sector, where one of the strongpoints was captured.

Further south, Krasnohorske, on the border of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, came under the control of Russian forces. According to Russian sources, the Russian military now controls the entire right bank of the Yahnchar River up to Danilovka.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have launched counterattacks in the area around the towns of Oleksiivka, Sosnivka and Novoselivka. Heavy fighting for Sosnivka continues in particular.

To the north, units are expanding their control of the Ivanivka area and advancing towards Novopavlivka, aiming to reach the rear of its garrison. To the south of Novopavlivka, units of the ‘Centre’ grouping have taken control of several Ukrainian strong points covering near the area. Meanwhile, assault groups have broken into the southern part of Novopavlivka, complicating the position of Ukrainian units — especially given the transfer of reserves in the Grishino and Dobropillia sectors.

In the north-eastern part of this sector, on the border of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Russian forces drove Ukrainian troops out of a well-fortified stronghold on the heights north of Mykolaivka and north-west of Novosergeevka. Reports suggest that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have repeatedly launched counterattacks from this bridgehead. Active operations are also ongoing in the Novopodgorodnoye–Lenine–”Pokrovske” mine administration area.

Units of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade raised a flag in Krasnohorivka, symbolising their control of the right bank of the Dnieper River in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. According to reports, over 5 sq. km of the eastern riverbank defense area was taken under control as a result of these actions. It is estimated that Ukrainian losses amounted to a platoon of personnel, four armored vehicles and nine automobiles.

Having established control over Vyshnevoye, Russian troops occupied several strong points along the tree line and entered the Hai area.

Kupyansk Sector

Units of the «West» grouping advanced south of Kupyansk, taking control of the village of Sadove in the process. A counterattack from the south, from the Petrivka–Osinove sector, was repelled. In the area north of Osinove,  strikes were carried out against a Ukrainian unit attempting to regain control of a crossing point over the Oskil River.

Click to see full-size map.

Sumy Sector

Crews from Russian aviation, artillery and heavy flamethrower systems struck concentrations of Ukrainian personnel and equipment. It is reported that the Ukrainian forces were not undertaking active offensive actions, but rather focusing on restoring their combat capability and regrouping.

In the Kyianytsia area, an airstrike with a UMPK-equipped FAB-1500 guided glide bomb destroyed a temporary deployment point belonging to the 71st Separate Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to reports, up to two dozen personnel were killed or wounded, and up to four units of equipment were destroyed or damaged.

There were no significant changes in the Tykhonivka and Glushkovo sectors of the front. The army aviation and artillery of the «North» grouping struck concentrations of Ukrainian personnel and equipment in the Rohozne and Ryzhevka areas.

Kharkiv Sector

Assault groups have occupied 20 buildings on the left bank of the Volchia River in Vovchansk and are consolidating their new positions. They advanced 300 meters over 24 hours.

It is reported that the Ukrainian command continues to seek ways to hold positions in Vovchansk. Some units from the 129th Separate Tank Brigade in the Kharkiv sector have been transferred to the command of the 57th Separate Motorised Infantry Brigade.

In the forest to the west of Sinelnikove, three Ukrainian strongpoints were seized and part of the forest was cleared. The advance was up to 400 meters.

In the Melove-Khatnie area, Russian forces advanced 700 meters and repelled two Ukrainian counterattacks in the Oradne region. There have been reports of the capture of servicemen from the 159th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade. Aviation struck the positions of the 129th Separate Tank Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kolodekne area.

Seversk Sector

In the Seversk sector, Russian troops are conducting an operation to blockade Seversk. The transport arteries leading to the city are under fire control, which, according to assessments, makes it difficult for Ukrainian units to rotate.

Russian units are also gradually clearing strong points in the outskirts of the city. South of Seversk, assault groups have reached the outskirts of Zvanivka and are advancing towards the center of the village. Meanwhile, units of the 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade have seized several Ukrainian strongpoints to the north-west of Vymka. Russian troops have advanced along the Zvanivka–Vymka line, clearing part of a tactical ‘pocket’. The offensive in this area continues.

Assault groups are gradually expanding their zone of control on Seversk’s flanks. Ultimately, establishing control over Zvanivka and achieving success on the approaches to Platonivka could result in the cutting of the last asphalt road leading to the city.

Click to see full-size map.

Pokrovsk Sector

In the Pokrovsk sector, pressure is being maintained along the Dorozhnyanske–Pankivka line. Ukrainian forces are attempting to push Russian troops back from Zolotyi Kolodyaz, where an extensive ‘grey zone’ remains.

In Mirnohrad, assault groups have entered the 8th Settlement microdistrict on the north-eastern outskirts. Further south, fighting continues around Mine No. 5/6. The position of Ukrainian formations in Pokrovsk is assessed as difficult. It is reported that Russian troops control approximately half of the city. A flag raised on the western outskirts was subsequently struck by a drone. Reports have emerged of Russian assault groups entering the Karakovskyi Settlement area.

Lyman Sector

Assault units from the 25th Army of the «West» military grouping broke through the defenses in the ‘Holy Mountains’ nature reserve. On 30 October, footage emerged confirming that Russian fighters had reached the eastern outskirts of Lyman. At the same time, Russian units managed to push the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of most of the forested area and approach the Krasnolymanskyi sand quarry.

Further south, Russian units cleared the center of Yampil. It is reported that Ukrainian formations withdrew south and are organizing a new line of defense along a chain of strong points between Dibrova and Ozerne.

One of the factors contributing to the breakthrough of the defense was systematic strikes on Ukrainian supply routes. Reports of the methodical destruction of field warehouses and transport are emerging.

Currently, Russian troops in Lyman are only present in the form of small assault groups. Once the main forces have been mobilized, it will be possible to transfer larger reserves to develop the attack towards the city center.

Conclusion 

As of 30 October, the most dynamic development of the situation is observed in the Dnipropetrovsk sector. Units of the «East» and «Centre» groupings have consolidated their success in the Vyshnevoye area and continued to advance in the western and northern sectors. They have taken control of Krasnohorske and a number of strong points and carried out a breakthrough into the settlement of Hai. In the Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad sector, fighting has moved into the urban areas of Pokrovsk and Mirnohrad, with both sides battling for control of individual districts and microdistricts. In the Kupyansk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Seversk and Lyman sectors, Russian units continue their tactical advance and clearing of territory. They are encountering counterattacks and are exerting constant pressure on Ukrainian defensive formations along the entire line of contact.

Taking into account the current rate of advance, the potential threat to the garrison’s logistical routes and the general state of stress within the Ukrainian defense system in the Novopavlivka area, the following operational prerequisites for capturing the settlement by the end of November are emerging:

• Russian units advancing towards Novopavlivka from the north and establishing control over strong points covering the southern approaches;
• Assault groups breaking through into the southern part of Novopavlivka;
• Ukrainian reserves being transferred “firefighting-style” towards Grishino and Dobropillia, indicating the need for the Ukrainian command to respond to the breakthrough on several fronts simultaneously;
• Successful advancement in adjacent sectors, particularly the capture of Krasnohorske and the breakthrough into Hai.

Against this backdrop, publications concerning the composition of military formations are appearing in the foreign media. The Chinese publication NetEase, citing its own sources, claims that over half of those killed in the Ukrainian Armed Forces are foreign mercenaries. It claims that ‘the Ukrainian defense line, built from bodies, is collapsing’, and that citizens of other states, including African Americans and Colombians, are being recruited to replace losses. It adds that the recruitment of mercenaries has become a ‘contingency plan’ for Kyiv.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has previously stated on multiple occasions that the Kyiv regime uses foreign mercenaries as ‘cannon fodder’. Some foreign volunteers have acknowledged in interviews that the Ukrainian command coordinates their actions poorly, and that their chances of survival are low due to the high intensity of combat, which they say is incomparable to conflicts in Afghanistan and the Middle East.

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