The British economy is not sinking, contrary to the expectations
Written by Ivo Hristov; Originally appeared at A-specto, translated by Borislav exclusively for SouthFront
After the referendum on June 23, 2016, the world mourned the poor Brits. Hollande and Merkel were not cheap with their ruthlessness. “The separation will be without concessions” said the French president. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, was quick to reassure Europeans that “The Brexit does not mean the end of the EU”. The German Finance Minister even said that he believed “the British are also crying, but it’s pointless. They should have thought ahead of time” stated the iron Schaeuble. Even the Bulgarian Euro-claqueurs were pointing a finger at the “dumb Britons”, the “villagers from Wales” who do not know how to vote. In the hours after the referendum, the rating agency Standart & Poor’s lowered the credit rating of the UK with two levels due to “unpredictable and uncertain political context.” The London Stock Exchange hit historic lows, and in the weeks after the quake, the German business community stated their appetite to challenge the primacy of the City as a financial center of Europe, and the second largest platform for financial transactions in the world. The Frankfurt Stock Exchange stated its willingness to expand its operations. The television channels also aired reports of desperate British entrepreneurs who are looking into an uncertain future with empty eyes.
The realists however, prophesied something else: if Britain sinks, the EU will stabilize over the instructive example of the Brexit, but if the British departure proves successful, then many countries would be tempted to follow the islanders and the disintegration of the EU is a matter of time.
Four months later, the statistics are comforting. Alas for the EU. British society is experiencing a difficult moment, racist outrages are multiplying, the future looks unclear, the calls for Scottish independence are again on the agenda, negotiations for the Brexit are yet to come, the conditions for the divorce to be yet specified. But the economy is recovering faster than the fleeting confusion. Contrary to the apocalyptic predictions, growth in the third quarter, which began just after the referendum, is 0.5%. The fortune tellers prophesied 0.3 percent, with the most pessimistic even talking about a recession. Their forecasts did not materialize. “For the moment, the economic growth outlook is not affected by the Brexit, and most dynamic remains the service sector” said the British statistical office. It does not seem that the financial agents of the City, intend to move to Frankfurt or elsewhere. A slight decline was observed in industrial production, but there is encouraging news. Nissan yesterday announced its intention to invest, in its plant in Sunderland. “The government gave us assurances,” explained the head of the company Carlos Ghosn, without specifying.
Consumption of British households remained almost unaffected by the referendum, and while the British pound depreciated against the dollar and the euro, it regained some of its value after the announcement of economic statistics for the third quarter. Analysts say the effect of the Brexit is yet to be felt because inflation is creeping up, and this will raise the price of imported raw materials and enterprises will slow down or limit their investment programs. However, expectations for a dramatic collapse did not materialize and London will start negotiations for its withdrawal from the EU in decent condition. Britain is determined to preserve its access to the 500 millionth European market. “President Hollande seems to be of the opinion that we can not impose tighter control of the borders and still preserve the free market with the EU, but I think otherwise” stated Prime Minister Theresa May, after his meeting with the French head of state.
Meanwhile, Europe is entering an election year. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the French President will be willing to accept certain concessions to London, so as to not rock the EU boat unnecessarily, which is taking in water from many places. The two leaders are in a vulnerable position and have an interest to not open a new front against London. Paris and Berlin have enough problems with their Right, and with terrorism, so they would be unwilling to raise the stakes against Britain. Trade relations with Britain are very important for the stability of European economies, so they are unlikely to be burdened with tariffs and restrictions. It seems that the moment of the Brexit was well chosen, and London has all the chances to preserve their free access to the EU. In essence, to get rid of the burdensome commitments to Brussels, without losing the advantages of the European market.
Summary of the article: “I got my agenda and need to follow it. It doesn’t matter if it makes any sense but here you go.”
Sorry mate. Try again please. This time with proper arguments and not some wishful thinking like a genie in the bottle. Nothing happened yet, the UK economy is now in fact at a standstill, it looks like as soon as the article 50 us triggered we will trade just under WTO rules which will hurt our economy even more. We got no manufacturing industry of note and the banks kept as afloat. They however will lose all the advantages they got over the outside banks and need to compete against tough opponents. A lot of them will move to the EU and so a lot of companies will follow. Will the EU be better off? Not certain but the UK definitely won’t be. Isolationists with no real leverage or allies got big problems on the global market. So forgive me if I disagree with your short-sighted applause while we drift into a recession with open eyes while politicians lie to us. Thanks again Nigel and Boris.
Britain had a good economy before they joined the EU and it only went downhill from there. Good riddance to the EU and their US managers who are swamping the EU with refugees to break their social schemes courtesy of george sorros, the UK will be better off in the long run. Let those businesses leave the UK if they insist, they don’t have the backs of the British people anyway and have behaved like parasites.
Recession? we never got out of depression to begin with.
To be honest with you I think more things need to happen in addition to Brexit. I was born in a fishing town which was decimated by EU fishing regulations and EU quotas. I don’t suppose any of that will change. Our political class does not differ much from the rest of the EU in its thinking. I don’t see them taking on the challenged at all well – but one can hope. It has to be remembered that outside UKIP no political party had Brexit as part of its platform and where pretty vigorous in opposing it.
I think ‘the establishment’ thought they could brow beat and bludgeon the public into validating what they wanted. It was probably a shock to them (and me) that it failed . I think the English at their best could work wonders. However, looking round I would say we are far from our best.
That’s the problem – the elite want to stay in the EU. So while the current PM gives “lip service” to withdrawing from the EU, she’s slowing the process hoping to come up with a “plan ‘B'” to stay in. Lord willing, the people of Europe shall rise up against the EU and at least TRY to reassert their national sovereignties.
Hi Peter. Britain was in an enormous amount of economic trouble when we joined the EU in 1973. I guess you don’t remember the chaos which bordered on anarchy in parts of the UK. Unemployment was running wild and it wasn’t for fun called the “no future generation”. If you would like to see the numbers: https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/nov/25/gdp-uk-1948-growth-economy
Read it? Ok. so you are WRONG about the economy. You agree? Hope so and if not read it again.
The EU isn’t perfect but without it we wouldn’t even be on the economic landscape anymore. btw. the EU and their US managers is a good point. If you look at the biggest employers, almost all newspapers and other media are owned by either American or EU companies. You want those employers to leave? How are you gonna afford the next car, flat, oil&gas bill without a salary? You do realize nobody in the world can exist without the rest of the world? By saying we don’t want them here anymore we are basically choking ourselves to death. No thanks. By telling them to sell here but with a tariff who do you think will pay the tariff? They won’t as they will just up their prices exactly for that amount and therefore you&I will pay them. Thanks again.
Your trivial about refugees is either not thought through and can be disregarded or you got a huge problem to care about people we bombed almost out of existence. You think Britain is innocent when we sell weapons, technology, training and mercenaries to dictators or regimes? We are not somehow as well responsible for all the refugees in the first place? I don’t know about you but it makes me sick to hear our MPs talk about the poor childs and the poor people who drown in the mediterranean while blaming the EU for it. We are blocking all those refugees from entering Britain. Ask the foreign office how many Syrian refugees we allowed into Britain. Compare that with Turkey, Jordan, Germany, Egypt, Sweden. Even Canada beats our number by a factor of 11! Shame on us.
I wrote it to Mr Peter Jennings as well before I read Your comment. Very bad memory.
I would like EU could make some reforms. Its needed.
Very bad memory. You have forgotten how the pund fell and no banks in europe would take it. We coulnt even buy a cup of coffe with it in the train at Hook Van Holland.
Seemes You also has forgotten Thatcher, Unions, trains, coalmines and a lot of other stuff.
The wealth in Brittain has trippelt or doubbelt, so if anything since that has been fallen its Your memory.
In that Britts has had extras from EU, where we are paying to it.
Might have been better with EFTA. hard to say. They can go back there and Join Norway, Switzerland and Iceland. So far its very difficult to treat G.B. well about it telling us, we are this and that being that unconstructive themselves.
And dont forget many asylans come from Afghanistan, Iraq & Syria. MIght be better they massdestructed themselves there, if they could.
Remain supporters have never been slow in their ‘Chicken Licken’ impersonations prophesying that the sky would fall in. I fear they will never give up on this ( see some of the comments here). Let’s face it there has never been a time when there was not some sort of economic crisis , and my memory goes back as far as the fifties. I have seen it all – pay pauses, devaluations, crashes, massive closures and bitter strikes. So saying that there will be problems in the future is not really saying anything at all.
The point is we now have a chance to take at least some control over our own fate and not be fettered to the EU corpse. I don’t think brexit will be a silver bullet but it gives a chance. It is up to us to take it.
For me it’s not the economic arguments that are in any way the most important. Although it is far from certain there is a chance that the UK will be able to free itself from the SJW European agenda. I think other European countries will be doing the same .
I agree Paul that it gives us a chance to “control our future”. It might lead us into economical and political nothingness. The later we already achieved a while ago as nobody cares anymore what we gotta say on world stage politically. I hope it is possible to get some advantages for us out of the Brexit but so far I fail to see it. The economy is so heavily relying on the money coming from Europe that the membership fee is a laugh. I am not arrogant enough to say I know what will happen and I do hope we will have a positive future but when I look at the likes of May, Hammond and Johnson I strongly doubt a Tory government can do anything else apart from serving to the big money companies. There is just no part of their agenda which might help the common man. :(
For me it is a too high gamble to believe it will be better to live as isolationists in a global market just because some lunatics without any experience or knowledge say it is the right thing to do. There is all our lives on the stake and if it goes wrong they will just quit and one of their mates will give them a CEO position somewhere. If it goes to sh!t they are not on the suffering end… We are.
Still hope the best though and it is full speed ahead now!
What I see is an deliberate delaying, instigated by those that didnt wanted this to happen and have since the threaded in circles to delay or derail everything, and blames the Brexit for whatever shit that have materialized it self from the day it happen. Give me an break.
I stead of whining spineless wimps , as Theresa Vague is, and the bonkers loose cannon and international Bozo the Clown running around and makes everything to be an purple haze, and nothing substantial what so ever. And when something finally comes out and is understandable instead of gibberish, its lies and forgery’s, echoing the even more bonkers UssA.
I dont understand this passivity, the negativity, the dooms day f….. coming from the AGW cargo cult preachers of fire and brim stone rhetoric pisses me of every-time. Give me data, because what the City of London does or not, isnt that relevant, the banking sectors is an dying rotten corps and austerity killing whats left its an f….. miracle there is stil people with money left on this island. The economic policy of robber-barons will and have never worked unless its imposed because its an rotten sceem and nothing else, an scam. Period, by an parasitic entity that creates nothing, but feeds upon us all.
Where is THAT talk, Brits, in all this years of feeding sniveling drivel the Brexit takes the kake. Utter crap, based upon miserable perceptions of an reality that isnt there anymore, but glings to the railings in an sinking ship. Happily diverting them self with counting deck chairs. Are you blind. huh
peace
Boris is an american. He refuses to resind his american passport and like a typical political social climber wants the best of both worlds. He is another churchill in waiting, taking the american dollar along with his orders on shaping British policies. He just needs to become an alcoholic then the transformation will be complete.
Do not insult me or my countrymen like that! Boris is not an American by any sense of the word. He is a globalist, Z.O.G. agent and a bum who needs a haircut. If he came to real America hed get his ass kicked quicker then shit through a goose. If we ever get our country back he and his kind will surrender their passport and not be welcomed back!