Originally appeared at ZeroHedge
In a troubling repudiation of President Donald Trump’s demands that Beijing do more to rein in its bellicose neighbor, Beijing, through the state-owned media, cautioned the US president on Friday that it would intervene (militarily) on North Korea’s behalf if the US and South Korea launch a preemptive strike to “overthrow the North Korean regime,” according to a statement in the influential state-run newspaper Global Times.
“If the U.S. and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so,” it said.
At the same time, the Chinese regime made it clear that its preferred outcome would be a continuation of the status quo, warning Kim Jong Un that it would “remain neutral if North Korea were to strike first.”The article, cited by Rueters, reiterated calls for a diplomatic solution. However, the possibility of talks between the two sides was looking increasingly remote as both Trump and Kim continued to exchange threats of nuclear annihilation, with Trump clarifying Thursday that his earlier promise to respond with “fire and fury” should the North continue to threaten the US may not have gone far enough.
China – North Korea’s most important ally and trading partner – has reiterated calls for calm during the current crisis. Beijing has expressed frustration with both Pyongyang’s repeated nuclear and missile tests and with behavior from South Korea and the United States, such as military drills, that it sees as escalating tensions.
“China should also make clear that if North Korea launches missiles that threaten U.S. soil first and the U.S. retaliates, China will stay neutral,” the Global Times, which is widely read but does not represent government policy, said in an editorial.
Meanwhile, as the North may be planning its next ICBM launch, the US is stepping up military exercises with Japan and South Korea.
“On Thursday, U.S. and Japanese troops began an 18-day live fire exercise on the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido, which was to include rocket artillery drills and involve 3,500 troops. The Northern Viper drills are one of the scheduled exercises that Japan’s Self Defense Forces conducts regularly with their U.S. counterparts and are not a response to the latest tensions. South Korean and U.S. troops are also gearing up for an annual joint drill from Aug. 21, called the Ulchi Freedom Guardian, in which up to 30,000 U.S. troops will take part.”
US officials were also discussing coordinated contingency plans on Friday to formulate exactly how the allies would respond to an attack.
“South Korea’s national security adviser Chung Eui-yong and his U.S. counterpart H.R. McMaster spoke on the phone for 40 minutes early on Friday, a spokesman for the presidential Blue House in Seoul said. The two discussed responses to North Korean provocations and the security situation on the Korean peninsula, he said.”
Not surprisingly, analysts have compared the standoff between the two nuclear powers (the North is a recent, if untested, member of this club) to a modern day Cuban Missile crisis. “This situation is beginning to develop into this generation’s Cuban Missile crisis moment,” ING’s chief Asia economist Robert Carnell said in a research note. “While the U.S. president insists on ramping up the war of words, there is a decreasing chance of any diplomatic solution.”
Judging by the markets’ reaction in the past 48 hours, this troubling reality has finally filtering through to risk assets.
China will not allow any US and allies preemptive strikes on N. Korea. US is blowing a lot of hot air, their propaganda machine can spin its narrative without tangible results, US is afraid of major casualties and possible embarrassment.
Cuban Crisis all over again, in other words.
CHina leadership is hypocritical and China is part of the problem. Allowing and voting in UN against N.K. shows that CHina is not very good highbor or partner. If Chinese leadership has shown to the world and to the N.K that will defend N.K. against any invasion by S.K and Americans and shown this at the U.N. by vote any additional sanction, the N.K would be secure enough and most likely will have no reason to continue testing the nuclear arsenal and delivery capabilities, but because China flip-flap and voting for new sanctions against N.K, N.K have no choice but continue the testing and protect itself against american aggression. China has shown many times that CAN NOT be good partner for N.K or Russia
You could be right. But I would say you should look on the positive. If true this shows the direction of China’s thinking. I would not expect China or indeed Russia to seek confrontation with the usa and indeed they will probably go to great lengths to avoid it. The question is when that road is exhausted will China stand its ground. That’s the big question. May be if the report is accurate the answer is they will.
The answer is very simple. So long China has invested over 1.3 trillion in US Treasury bills and bonds, CHina will please Americans at the expense of others. Therefore, N.K or Russia should be careful in regards China being military partner.
That’s just the reality. The rest of the world treads carefully while the West (US and Allies) boast and beat its chest. While this tactic is working for some regard at the moment, how can we see this work as other nations become near equal matches in economy and military. A time will come where we may push others over that edge and when this push is retaliated with a shove, eastern countries might be more situated to the strife of a long lasting military conflict between major nations. Try and take big macs (i.e. cheap food and relatively luxury lifestyle) away from the lower and middle classes and you will see massive civil unrest that no government will be able to control peacefully. While I try to educate myself as a young American in survival and handling tough situations, my counter parts are wrapped up in memorizing NFL/NBA stats, celebrity gossip or other entertainment distractions. I am also distracted but at least make some effort to farm and become self sustained.
You are mistaken if you think China puts money above China.
If I would not seen Joe Doe’s post before I would think that he’s sinserely advocating for pro human agenda. But all he does is bashing China (when he’s not busy with Russia or SAA) for America’s and NK’s war of words.
To answer your question. US already invaded Korean penincula and China intervened and Russians helped and US wasn’t able to occupy more than ~ half of the country dividing it in two hostile entities. So China does have a record of defensive mil. operations against US troops in Korea.
It’s kind of “unfinished business” for many sides involved.
You must be living on another planet and away from reality. Compare what China and Russia did over 50 years ago in Korea’s does not present or show security today in that region. The situation change for China, Russia, N.K and Americans. China will never risk its huge investment in america for N.K or Russia. In addition, CHina vote for new N.K new sanction does not shown any security to N.K., rather the opposite. Sure, you can lie to yourself and portent that is everything is great. That’s why the world is very unsafe place today, because people like you living in virtue space, away from reality.
Yes perhaps I misjudged when making my reply. I thought it bona fide. As to your second paragraph, I agree. I have no certain knowledge or special insight but my judgment is that there does come a point when China and Russia will turn and fight.
That is one part of it. But let’s not mistake North Korea for unequivocal good guys just because of their belligerence vs the US. Certainly, N.K. hasn’t been a great partner for China either. It was about time that China spoke up; now they’ve done so, clarifying that their support is purely defensive, and not a blank check for adventurism from Pyongyang. Wish that the US would display similar sense when dealing with the Baltic and Ukrainian morons.
“China spoke up” most likely is too little too late. So long China have invested over $1.3 trillions in US Treasury bills and bonds, CHina will please americans at the expense of others. In addition, Americans will look into wars, as the economy and profits depends on wars. Don’t be fool with america’s good intentions, american policy is to divide and conquer
America’s good intentions are nowhere among my assumptions. Whether they are still capable of heeding a clear Chinese warning, I guess we’ll find out. With Trump, one cannot exclude that it’s all about the show: make a lot of noise now and when the world proves too complicated for him, he’ll move on to abortion or immigrants next week.
Chinese, on the other hand, have dealt with complexity for ages. Yes, the US is a rival and even a threat, but also their biggest customer. And indeed, by now China is rich enough to have much to lose in war. So they’ll continue to probe around for a policy to reconcile these opposites, with occasional mistakes on the way. If the result doesn’t always please us, that causes no loss of sleep in Zhongnanhai.
Current, China has to much to lose, therefore they will continue for peaceful resolution, but if push comes to shove China will side with Americans and will sacrifice N.K.
“if push comes to shove …” to some it’s a prediction, to others–an opinion. Yes much of the time Chinese behavior looks like you describe, but on the other hand they sacrificed a million of their people to keep American animals away from their own borders. Even for China, that’s considerable.
Either way, it’d really be better if we won’t have to find out.
No. They won’t. In case you haven’t noticed – China doesn’t bluff.
Agreed. The Fat Child in NK has been a deficit to China, and it’s time for him to start behaving. He can still have his toys, girls, and Scotch, but fuck USA in other ways. They all do it, and he needs to think wiser.
More or less China president says..” If USA and Allies want a war in Korea peninsula without Nukes..then we will fight”!..as USA and NK will not go to a Nuclear war for obvious reasons!
Last time it was like this:
Saying: China: No western country at our border, no way! US: No loss of South Korea, no way!
Thinking: China: …. hmm, no nukes yet … US: …damn, would have to use Nukes, bad propaganda deal …
Saying: China: Ok, let’s stop in the middle US: Deal!
It’s Kabuki Theatre. ..
NK should openly invite US/UN to inspect their nuclear Arsenal so that an account exists. With NK directing that They will open the doors for the accounting,…when Israel does for their nuclear arsenal. NK will join/sign NPT if Israel,India and Pakistan do, …otherwise…. ..Go to Hell.
As usual,….Russia and China will say/do nothing about the Toxic Jewish state.
I think that is a very fair and good deal as you described about the inspecting of nuclear sites of both NK and Israel, etc. Someone should tell trump, maybe I will email him :)))
Trump and the US do a lot of posturing and needs the allies they currently alienating , remember it just wasn’t the US that invaded Korea but a multitude western nations. Which today are nowhere near the capabilities of back then. This is a big show and one intended to intimidate , the last time the US backed down with their grandstanding. If the US escalates the situation look for the US to make concessions on their Sanctions bill.
Well said China. Keep those Zionists away from your borders.
Northamerican people needs a regimen change in USA, and they know it right now, but they are afraid of using their own people power.