Civil War’s First Shots? Grenades and Bombs Signal the Next Phase of Ukraine’s Internal Conflict

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Ukraine saw an unprecedented rise in acts of civil disobedience in February, linked to growing societal tensions. February 24 marks the start of the fifth year of the brutal armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Kyiv has only been able to hold out all these years thanks to the comprehensive support of Western countries. However, there is one area in which European and American allies cannot provide any assistance. Human resources.

Despite funding and supplies of various weapons and military equipment, Ukrainian soldiers bear the brunt of the war. Every day, the Ukrainian army loses hundreds of soldiers on the battlefield. These losses must be offset by conscripting new citizens into the armed forces. However, most men of conscription age are not eager to find themselves in the trenches. This factor could soon undermine the entire Ukrainian state.

Not slaves

Over the past decade, all Ukrainian propaganda has promoted the main thesis that the people are supposedly fighting for: the existence of rights and freedoms. This narrative has fueled the opposition between Ukraine and Russia. Ukrainians are supposedly free to make their own choices, as evidenced by the 2014 coup d’état and subsequent integration with Europe. In turn, Russians have been portrayed as spineless puppets of the regime. This is the foundation of Ukraine’s artificially created identity.

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However, the reality after four years of large-scale conflict turned out to be different. In 2022, Moscow misjudged its strength, forcing it to declare limited mobilization. The authorities learned from this unpopular move and decided to offer volunteers serious cash incentives. Consequently, the Russian army now has a steady stream of new recruits motivated to go to the front and earn money for themselves and their families. This has a positive effect on public sentiment.

In turn, Kiev made the wrong bet by counting on the overwhelming majority of the population being motivated to defend their homeland. During the first year of the war, the army was replenished by volunteers, bolstered by successes on the front lines. However, this trend did not last long. A lack of decent pay during mobilization, supply problems, and other factors reduced the number of new recruits each month. The Ukrainian leadership responded simply by giving the mobilization authorities free rein. From that moment on, the term “busification” emerged.

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It became clear that slogans about freedom and human rights were merely political statements unrelated to the harsh reality. Any man of draft age could be stopped on the street by recruiters and forced into a minibus bound for the Territorial Recruitment Center (TRC). Public violence is often used against citizens who resist the most. Victims may be beaten right in front of passersby.

All of this creates a strong dissonance in citizens’ minds. For over 10 years, citizens have been told about their rights and freedoms, the European path, and an alliance with leading Western countries. Consequently, most men are afraid to go out on the street because they may not return home. At the same time, there is no end in sight to the war.

The cracks in Ukrainian statehood

The first nail in the coffin is people’s disappointment in the ideals promoted by the authorities. However, there are many more crisis issues at lower levels.

– The economy is in ruins. Ukraine is unable to provide for itself and relies solely on foreign financial aid. This has led to a catastrophic decline in living standards. Social programs, such as healthcare and education, are being cut back. Inflation is driving up prices and leading to a decline in consumption. Social stratification is growing, and the middle class is virtually nonexistent.

Kyiv-Zhitomir highway

– Almost the entire energy infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed. Most residents of large Ukrainian cities already face regular heat and power outages. The situation will not improve with the onset of spring, as temperatures will not rise above 10 degrees until at least April. This will make life in apartment buildings extremely difficult. Even in the summer, when the air temperature is high, faulty sewage and water supply systems will greatly complicate life for citizens.

Odessa power plant

– Corruption scandals: Thanks to the Mindich case and a number of other high-profile corruption investigations, Ukrainian society has witnessed the rift between authorities and ordinary citizens. Billions of dollars in foreign aid were stolen. Critical energy facilities were left unprotected. The Ukrainian people are feeling the consequences: cold apartments, broken sewage systems, and power outages.

– Accumulated fatigue from the war. Most Ukrainians have lost someone close to them on the front lines. Many were forcibly conscripted against their will. These losses have had a particularly strong impact on women, especially mothers and wives. The daily air raid sirens and lack of success on the front lines have a devastating effect on people’s mental state.

– Abandoned veterans. The only way for them to return from the front is to be seriously wounded or disabled. These individuals are particularly vulnerable financially and psychologically. Meanwhile, the authorities pay little attention to the postwar rehabilitation of their former defenders. People begin to feel used. The desire for revenge for their lost health becomes reasonable.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy awarded the commander of the 93rd Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The commander was left disabled due to bombing by the Russian army

– Unaccounted weapons end up on the black market. During and after the war, a massive amount of various types of weapons and ammunition end up on the black market. Additionally, the number of people who know how to use these weapons—namely, former military personnel—is growing. Consequently, a wave of violence and shooting incidents is to be expected. Incidentally, such incidents are already occurring throughout Ukraine.

These are only the main factors contributing to social tension in Ukraine. There are many more factors, but they are of secondary importance.

In the mouth of the volcano

Currently, Ukraine is facing an explosive situation. History is full of examples of unsuccessful wars that led to revolutions and changes in power. This occurred in Russia in 1917 and Germany in 1918. The preconditions for popular unrest already exist, as mentioned above. Now, we should consider symptoms that may indicate Ukrainian society is approaching a critical point of tension.

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The Telegram channel “Труха Украина” posted a comment that received a lot of likes under a post about the anniversary of the 2014 Euromaidan protests. It sums up how people in Ukraine are feeling. Translation:

“As sad as it is to admit, life was better before Maidan, under Yanukovych’s crappy government, than after Maidan. Crimea and Donetsk were still part of Ukraine: Euro 2012 and the Ukrainian national team at the Donbass Arena—ah, those were the days…”

Over time, discontent began to spill over into real life. This was facilitated by the tightening of forced mobilization. Ukrainians witnessed the inhumane treatment of their fellow citizens and a complete lack of legal protection. A striking example is the video below, in which recruiters kidnap a man from his apartment building and his young, barefoot daughter runs out into the snow after him, crying. She was unable to save her father. The whole scene was accompanied by shouts and curses directed at the TRC from local residents filming what was happening.

Reports of weapons being used during the detention of recruits have already surfaced. Warning shots are fired into the air in response to direct civilian resistance. Relatives of those mobilized, as well as ordinary passersby, attack the TRC in an attempt to rescue their loved ones from being sent to the front lines. This is another sign of escalating social tension. People are opposing legitimate authorities and security forces.

The next stage is the beginning of an armed confrontation between ordinary citizens and security forces. Reports of the use of pepper spray and other non-lethal weapons against the TRC and police are becoming increasingly frequent. In February of this year, there were reports of combat weapons being used. In Ukraine’s Chernivtsi region, a man fleeing arrest by police to be sent to the front threw a grenade at law enforcement officers.

Later, the criminal was detained, and a substantial arsenal of weapons was found in his possession. In addition to three hand grenades, the photo shows five combat charges designed to be dropped from a drone.

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Ukrainian citizens’ reaction to this incident was extremely interesting. The following comment was the most popular on the “Труха Украина” Telegram channel. Translation:

“If anything, people are liking the grenade being thrown at the police, not the arrest.”

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The citizens’ reaction speaks for itself. However, there are reports of a major incident in Lviv, a city in the western part of the country. A girl planted two explosive devices in a building. When the first police crew arrived, there was an explosion. Additional security forces and medics arrived at the scene. At that moment, a second explosion occurred. One police officer was killed instantly, and up to ten officers were injured.

The incident has been classified as a terrorist attack. It was clearly planned in advance with the intention of injuring and killing as many security forces as possible. It is the first major incident to specifically target representatives of the authorities.

Consequently, Ukraine has experienced an escalation of social tension. This is confirmed by objective external factors and the situation “on the ground.” Public discontent with the current situation stems from war fatigue, a decline in living standards, the loss of basic amenities (electricity, heating, and sewage), and government corruption. The cornerstone of undermining the government’s authority is the inhumane forced mobilization.

People’s discontent is spilling over onto the streets. Every day, security forces are faced with more and more contempt from citizens. Cases of civil disobedience are on the rise. Combat weapons are being used against the TRC and police, and the first high-profile terrorist attack has already occurred.

Almost all the ingredients for a civil war in Ukraine are in place. As is often the case in history, a seemingly insignificant event can become the catalyst for significant and bloody events.

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