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As of March 11th, 121,170 infected by coronavirus have been recorded in total, out of those 66,903 have recovered.
Thus, active cases currently sit at 49,890, out of those 44,142 (or 88%) are in mild condition, and 5,748 (12%) are in serious or critical condition (meaning that those in a life-threatening condition are much lower).
There are two countries who are struggling with the infection – Italy and Iran.
Italy is a notable example, since it is in the middle of the EU, and most, if not all neighboring countries are presenting a mild, or almost entirely lacking crisis.
On March 10th, Italy reported 977 new cases and 168 new deaths.
As of March 11th, it has 8,514 active cases, and a total recovered number of 1,004 individuals, and the deaths of 631 people.
The only country that comes close to the infection levels of Italy, is South Korea – and it was caught by surprise. The crisis was “weeks in the making” coming to Italy, and yet, Rome proves completely incapable of taking any precautionary measures and is in a deep crisis.
Both China and South Korea were surprised by the epidemic, and, yet, in the case of China, those cured are now more than those infected, and in South Korea these numbers are relatively equal, withing the range of statistical error.
The situation in Italy, however, is simply explained by a wide negligence, as well as by an attempt to spread the coronavirus hysteria. This can easily be seen from the levels of cases per million of population, as well as the numbers of deaths, relative to the cases.
It comes down to speculation, but it is quite obvious that much has been overlooked in preparing, and subsequently dealing with the situation.
A simple comparison may also be made between Germany and Italy, as well as with Austria.
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Germany has 1,622 cases, and 3 deaths, with only 9 people in critical condition.
Austria, which even shares a border with northern Italy has 206 cases, no deaths, and 1 individual in critical condition.
Italy is, as a result becoming the source of the coronavirus, with cases being reported in many countries after flights from the country.
At the same time, its neighboring countries present almost no cases, and a much lower mortality rate, as well as critical condition rates.
As of March 9th, Italy is in an emergency lockdown:
- Strict quarantine measures extended to all regions
- Public told to stay home
- Schools closed until April 3rd
- No travel unless with a valid work or family reason
- All public gatherings and sports events suspended
The day also coincided with the day the largest number of new cases and deaths were reported in Italy. The effects of the lockdown will be seen in several days, when the incubation period of the coronavirus passes.
However, it is more than apparent that due to various reasons Italy is the coronavirus center, not only in Europe, but in the world, as of now.
In every other countries, cases are being discovered at a very slow rate, and there is no close to no mortality, at the same time, in the center of Europe, which is currently suffering from the energy markets chaos, as well as the push by illegal migrants by Turkey, there appears to be a crisis that somehow was foreseen every, but in Italy.
It is also showing that Iran, a country that is incomparable to the resources that Italy possesses to fight a crisis such as this, and started reporting cases much earlier than Italy, is showing less infected, less deaths, and many more recovered individuals.
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So far we only has seen the start. It make no sense telling this and thet few or many people has died or not.
Our knowledge level for northern Italy says, that the population there are very old and more old people then young dies.
Comparing with Iran makes no sense. They are lucky in this, bacue they have a very Young population. Iranians also diee 5 year before the Italians.
Nexr time it might hit Young populations and babies and upside down.
I am impressed that the world try do make less contamininated by following rules even its expensive and make problems, bacuse doing nothing makes even more problems.
I also do thank for the reflexions in the article. We do have to add and subtract as well as we need facts and have to take away roumors and bad and even hostile actings.
Ignoring should be a no go even lives in many coutries are cheep.
What is worrisome about this virus isn’t is mortality rate which is low and seems to affect the elderly and health compromised individuals …. it’s the RATE of infection along with a 4 day period in which it is infectious without showing symptoms.
Viruses like this spread exponentially and with a four day period where patients are infectious while asymptomatic it could be anywhere and we don’t know it. So in light of this a low mortality rate may sound like this is a minor illness but the sheer volume of people infect means that our health care system will be overwhelmed in no time and with disruption
On top of this children seem to not become symptomatic but are highly infectious when they have the virus which means that schools and daycares are a primary vector for spreading this virus and without testing we have no idea that the virus is present in our schools.
So simple solution ….. shut down schools and daycare ….. however 40% of the nurses that staff our hospitals have school age children say nothing of all the people responsible for the supply chain worldwide.
The author (that is not named) makes a very important mistake in their assessment and that is making pronouncements well before the finish of the coronavirus crisis. The focus on Italy is misplaced. German Chancellor Merkel came out today and stated it was expected that two thirds of germans are expected to become infected. In Washington State, as of March 11, there are at least 267 reported cases of COVID-19 with at least 25 deaths (roughly 10%). It is expected to double every week and unless quarenteening (social distancing) is effective, there will be 250,000 cases of infection by June (and 25,000 deaths?). Governor Inslee has just banned gatherings and events over 250 people within the state.
The world is just starting down the road with this virus, and to make comparisons and pronouncements is irresponsible. Nobody will have real information until it is all over and then the numbers can be investigated and assessed.
I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on the percentage of deaths at this point. From what I understand Covid-19 affects those with underlying heath conditions more than healthy individuals. I read that in Washington State long term health care facilities were hit hard so of course there is a higher mortality rate than with the population in general.
In China elderly Chinese men were killed at a much higher rate than Chinese women of the same age …. elderly Chinese men smoke but elderly Chinese women do not.
Children appear to be able to have raging infections but show no symptoms at all so in Washington State Covid-19 could be rampant in the schools and you wouldn’t know it. healthy adults can also be asymptomatic however in italy the virus hit adults in their 40’s with compromising health conditions very hard. If the virus is in the schools in Washington, or the healthy population the mortality rate could be a fraction of what’s reported and we wouldn’t know it.
Apparently health officials are worried about how it’s going to affect middle America. The virus may affect the obese the same way it affects smokers …. at least that’s what the Italian experience has been.
I agree with much of what you said.
First, the overall death rate is almost meaningless as mortality is so closely tied to age and other comorbidities . The overall death rate could be 1-3% for CORVID-19 but if you are over 60 with COPD, high blood pressure, weakened immune system from undergoing chemotherapy, liver, heart and/or kidney disease, lung cancer, etc. you have a much more likely chance for not making it >15%. If you are 30-40 yrs old you have an expected mortality rate of 0.2%.
Just for grins, the US CDC gave mortality figures for the 2018-2019 influenza virus season as 0.09% with a 8.3% mortality rate for those over 65 and exhibiting symptoms. Even these numbers have a high degree of uncertainty as expressed by the US CDC as they give this warning: “These estimates are subject to several limitations.” .
No doubt, CORVID-19 has a higher infectious and mortality rate than regular influenza. We have along ways to go.
From my perspective mortality rates aren’t the big deal but just the raw numbers are what’s going to get us.
From the information I have up to 70% of the population can expect to become infected. Lets say for numbers sake we have a 1% mortality rate and since I’m pulling numbers out of my ass right now for every death 4 are severely affected enough to require medical intervention. The numbers for SARS were much higher than that but SARS affected patients much more severely and many SARS survivors have suffered from crippling lifelong aftereffects from the virus.
For every city of 1 million people that’s 40,000 people that need medical care. We don’t have hospital beds to deal with hundreds of cases let alone thousands and since there is no vaccine doctors and nurses are sure to be infected and what I mean by a ‘hospital bed’ isn’t simply the physical beds but the hospital staff needed to care for a patient.
The critical hospital staff member in regards to hospital beds are nurses and an estimated 40% of nurses have school are children. Shut down the schools and daycares and you effectively lose 40% of your hospital beds.
Now these numbers only deal with the corona virus ….. what happens to all the other critical care patients and emergencies that also need hospital care?
Prior to joining my wife in a healthcare consulting business (I have a construction / engineering background so I just deal with spreadsheets) I retired from a career as a contractor in commercial construction in a part of Canada that was the epicenter of the 2003 SARS outbreak. I used to play a part in building hospitals at that time and my wife was on the hospital floor throughout the SARS outbreak. She was in management but it was all hands on deck …. every warm body was mobilized. The full effects of SARS was kept from the public …. it was fucking scary. My wife lost colleagues and friends to SARS and I was involved in building and renovating hospitals designed to contain viruses as a direct response to what we learned during the SARS outbreak. I also taught courses for tradesmen working in containment environments.
Any hospital built in North America after 2003 are built to contain aerosolized viruses. Many hospitals renovated after that period are also built to contain viruses but it’s much more difficult and expensive to renovate because the HVAC system has to be such that every patient room is under negative pressure and that often requires work well beyond the scope and budget of many renovations. My point is that even though we made efforts from what we learned from SARS most hospital beds in North America aren’t capable to deal with a virus such as this …. and certainly not for the number of cases expected.
Even though there is a very good chance that only the infirm or elderly will be severely affected by this virus the effect on our society could be as severe as fighting a world war.
If it’s like any other pandemic, it’ll come in 3 waves and we’ll be dealing with it for the next 6-8 months at least. China seems to be able to control it. Their problem will be transfer from other countries back into China. We are in the middle of the 1st wave and despite every possible monkey wrench thrown at us, doing better than circumstances permit.
I said a few of the moves against Iran in the midst of Corona outbreak, add to that 1- the removal of post that contained hope and beating the illness by Instagram and other social networks (the posts that usually show a nurse, doctor, patient flashing a V and a line of text, not some beheading picture) and 2- Removal of the Ministry of Health app from the Google Play, the official application that updated the user on the number of cases, deaths, had a section for news and another for education and a few question for any user who suspects of catching the illness to make sure there’s a risk and guide them into the nearest center. Using that app the ministry prepared the heat map for the cities, showing which parts have more infection. They removed it because they were “concerned” that it “could” be spying and “claimed” to detect the illness. No app can replace a doctor!!
One bad thing that could happen in any country is that people underestimate it, but the worst is if the government does it. One fairly easy way to see if a government lies about it is to look at the numbers they provide. Make a chart and look at it. Is it constant with no change for a few days, is it progressing (or regressing) arithmetically or geometrically and the ratio between death and total (in the first days it might be higher than the average but not much after a week or so). You won’t be able to say how much it differs from the truth (nobody can but the same government), but gives you an idea.
3 waves are not necessary. it is dependent upon virus
Journo Dude,
This appears to be a hit piece that pretends to be a survey.
Your conclusions are on unfounded assumptions.
Every country has encountered the virus differently. There are different demographics. There are random chances of being caught early or late.
I’m thinking your article will look very stale and out of whack in another month or two. The so-called incapable will likely be different.
You did not mention N. Korea — is that because they deserve praise? They were very proactive, the first sick citizen was shot. The ministers have been admonished to get rid of this thing or they will be shot.
Somehow, this article seems incomplete. Like author dropped some facts on paper – and forgot to make the point promised in title. I’m confused.
New evidence shows clearly that the Corona Virus (convid19) started in the USA. Analysis of convid-19 from Hong Kong, Japan and China has joined up the dots and firmly points the finger at the US as being the origin of convid-19. There is a brilliant expose, The Last American Vagabond, if you can spare two and a half hours. The info is mind blowing identifying the beginning, the spread and mutations. It is interesting to note the most virulent strain of covid-19 just happens to be more devastating in Italy and Iran where the human genome similarities between these people are most similar. Extreme https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3705f8da739871178651fde4d72f236adbe5f78a55d8b66c8eda7d8bd23d1189.png ly Interesting material, I seriously recommend it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnXAyj31hTA
another troll
this author would be a perfect soviet journalist. his style recalls me the chernobyl case. week after, when already thousands died, the soviet propaganda denied evyrything.
nothing happened in chernobyl, western forgery and manipulation
no coronavirus epidemy, all is western forgey and manipulation
for this “journalist” is luxury the oxygen, what he breath,