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Which city has the Russian Ministry of Defense already declared as captured? Which deals are highly likely to close in December? Whose chances of being captured increased by 10% in just a couple days?
Huliaipole
The situation near Huliaipole is rapidly deteriorating and is considered one of the most dangerous for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Russian «East» group has established a presence on the outskirts of the city, where street battles are currently underway. A key factor in their success has been their advance on the approaches: Okhotnyche and Ravnopole, located northeast of the city, were previously captured. Over the past week, the settlements of Zelenyi Hai, Dobropillia, and Chervone were taken, creating a threat of operational envelopment. A potential counterfactor could be the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ ability to redeploy reserves and their stubborn street defense. However, the current pace of the Russian advance and their tactic of aerial battlefield suppression, employed for several months, provide grounds to believe that Huliaipole could fall to the Russian Armed Forces in December.
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Myrnohrad
By early December, the situation in Myrnohrad was characterized as extremely severe, with the Ukrainian grouping close to being tactically encircled. Avoiding large-scale street fighting, Russian troops have concentrated on intercepting logistical routes leading into the city. The only supply and withdrawal corridor for Ukrainian forces, passing through the villages of Svitloe and Rivne, has narrowed to 1–3 kilometers. Russian artillery and drones have complete fire control over this corridor, making ground logistics practically impossible. According to the independent project DeepState, the Ukrainian grouping in Myrnohrad is supplied primarily by heavy drones and ground-based robotic systems, which severely limits supply volumes.
The probability that Russian troops will fully capture Myrnohrad by the end of December is high. The main factor supporting this assessment is the almost complete blockade of logistics, which is methodically exhausting the defending garrison. According to military analysts, the Russian tactic of leaving a narrow, exposed evacuation corridor is often used to provoke an enemy retreat and inflict maximum losses. Under these conditions, the Ukrainian command’s main scenario becomes organizing a controlled retreat to save personnel, which could happen at any moment.
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Siversk
The Siversk sector remains one of the most dynamic and strategically important areas on the front line. Combat operations here are being fought not only for the city itself, but also for control of the key approaches that determine the logistical sustainability of the entire Ukrainian force in the area.
Rather than launching a direct assault on the well-fortified Siversk, Russian troops are focused on executing two interrelated tasks. First, they are conducting an active offensive against the Sviato-Pokrovske settlement, which is located on the western bank of the Bakhmutka River. Controlling it opens a direct path to assault positions on the eastern outskirts of Siversk. Second, the main tactical goal is to methodically intercept logistical routes supplying the Ukrainian garrison. The main access roads to the city have reportedly been cut off, forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to organize complex and vulnerable supply routes via field roads under constant artillery and drone fire.
Thus, the prospects for capturing Siversk depend directly on the success of its operational isolation. If Russian troops can completely block or de facto neutralize the last supply routes, the city’s defenses, despite their fortifications, will become unstable. However, given the difficult terrain and stubborn resistance, this process is likely to be methodical and protracted.
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Kostiantynivka
Russian troops have become active near Sloviansk, creating a new pressure front. A breakthrough in the Kostiantynivka area poses a direct threat to this important defensive hub, as reports indicate that the multi-layered Ukrainian defense has been breached there. The overall advance of the Russian army along the entire frontline in this region, including successes near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, is a factor that seriously increases the chances of success. This advance stretches Ukrainian reserves thin. However, Kostiantynivka is a large, well-fortified city. Even with the successful development of the offensive on the flanks, assaulting it is a complex task, and completing it by the end of December is possible but not guaranteed.
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Vovchansk
Russian troops have already taken control of Vovchansk. According to reports, Russian units have entered the city and consolidated deep within the Ukrainian defense, creating a new bridgehead for potential operations. This earlier success fundamentally changes the balance of forces in this sector. Now that the city has been taken, the main focus is on how the Russian Armed Forces will consolidate this success and use it to advance the offensive deeper into the Kharkiv region in December. Despite official statements from the Russian Ministry of Defense and video evidence, the odds of capturing Vovchansk remain at 30%.
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Kupiansk
In the Kupiansk sector, Russian troops are conducting operations and advancing in the Oskil River area. They have made progress towards the settlements of Yampil and Kruhlyakivka, which threatens the important transport hub of Kupiansk with envelopment. Ukrainian units have been forced to retreat to pre-prepared positions. The constant tactical advancement of the Russian Armed Forces and the general weakening of Ukrainian defense in this sector of the front following successes in other areas favor the likelihood of Kupiansk’s capture by the end of December. However, the activation of Ukrainian defenses in this sector could counter this, as the loss of Kupiansk would open operational space for the Russian army deep into the Kharkiv region. The situation here in the coming weeks will depend on the Ukrainian side’s ability to redeploy reserves.
Hrishyne
As part of the broader operation on the Pokrovsk axis, the settlement of Hrishyne has become the scene of heavy fighting. Russian troops are conducting active assault operations to gain full control of this important hub. The Russian army’s overall success in this sector, where neighboring settlements have already been taken and the city of Pokrovsk has been almost completely cleared, bodes well for Hrishyne’s imminent capture. These developments create favorable conditions for focusing efforts on the remaining pockets of resistance. The main counterfactor could be the stubborn defense of Ukrainian units in fortified positions. Considering the overall context and progress on the Pokrovsk axis, it is very likely that Hrishyne will be fully controlled by the end of December. Polymarket users also adhere to this view. Bets on success have grown by 10% since December 4.
Rodinskoye
Rodinskoye has become a key bridgehead for Russian troops attempting to encircle the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration. Controlling this village threatens the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ logistical corridors. By early December, Russian troops had seized control of most of the village and were suppressing the remaining pockets of resistance in its western part. Success near Rodinskoye is critical for Russia’s main tactical goal in this sector: cutting the highway near the village of Hrishyne. If successful, the last supply route from Pokrovsk to the north will be cut off, which could lead to the complete encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad.
Stubborn, head-on clashes in Rodinskoye have become part of a large-scale battle for the entire northeastern flank of the Pokrovsk axis. Besides Rodinskoye, there is ongoing active fighting in other settlements in this area—Chervonyi Lyman, Hrishyne, and on the approaches to Novopavlivka.
Despite the Russian troops’ local successes and their establishment of control over most of Rodinskoye, the full outcome of the struggle for this bridgehead remains uncertain. The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ ability to redeploy reserves and stabilize the front in this area will be key to preventing a breakthrough towards Hrishyne. If the defense is breached and the last corridor is cut, the situation for the Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad will become critical. Thus, the battle for Rodinskoye is not an isolated episode, but rather a decisive link in a complex operation whose outcome will determine the fate of the entire Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration.
Conclusion
The current operational situation favors the realization of contracts related to capturing settlements in December on several fronts. The most likely targets appear to be Myrnohrad, which is virtually surrounded, and Huliaipole, where there is active street fighting after successful advances on the approaches. Another target is Hrishyne, which is part of the completion of the Pokrovsk operation. According to the Ministry of Defense, the Russian army has already taken Vovchansk. The situation in Kostiantynivka requires attention. Kupiansk is at risk, but its fate will be decided in the coming weeks and depends on the balance of reserves. Siversk and Rodinskoye are currently unclear and complex targets for December, requiring more time or a significant change in the tactical situation.
It is important to remember that frontline dynamics can change rapidly and that Polymarket reporting is based on open-source data. Investors should closely monitor frontline reports, especially official statements about establishing control over a particular settlement.
Using our reports and analyzing the markers on the ISW map can help one draw conclusions about the capture of various settlements. However, please note that our information is not intended as an investment recommendation.
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nato, the banderite regime, the mainstream media and propaganda outlets like the looooosers at liveuamap are in complete denial. they haven’t yet painted the map red around .myrnohrad