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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
Ukraine has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, recording an average of just 0.7 children per woman of childbearing age. This situation, worsened by mass violent deaths and the exodus of millions of refugees, puts the country’s survival as a nation at risk, warns The Times.
Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, told the British newspaper that male life expectancy had decreased from 66-67 years to 57-58 years due to the conflict. The outlet highlighted that only Chad (54), Nigeria (54), Lesotho (55) and the Central African Republic (55) have lower life expectancies than Ukraine and emphasised that the demographic outlook for the country is bleak.
“The demographic picture looks bleak,” the newspaper reported, adding that a team of 12 academics specialising in demography calculated the impact of military casualties on Ukrainian society using various sources. However, the Kiev regime has not released these figures.
Ella Libanova explained that information is leaking, and the ages of the dead people are known. They considered the experience of the breakup of Yugoslavia, analysed previous data, and used all available sources to estimate the current situation.
Ukraine was already facing a demographic crisis before the conflict, with a birth rate of 1.16 and a small proportion of the population aged between 20 and 40, the same age group most likely to die in combat.
The crisis has reached such a critical point that Ukrainian ministers developed a repopulation strategy for 2040, Libanova revealed. However, concrete plans to reverse this trend are still lacking, even if the expert told The Times that the strategic objectives are to increase the birth rate, eliminate premature mortality, promote migratory growth, and adapt society to the aging population.
The simple fact is that as long as the war continues, Ukraine has no chance of recovering from its demographic collapse.
In the first six months of 2023, 96,755 children were born in Ukraine, compared with 135,079 in the first half of 2021, accounting for a massive fall of 28%. Although the number of newborn babies has declined for the past decade, this is the biggest fall since Ukraine gained independence in 1991 and is directly attributed to the war.
Ukraine’s population was more than 43 million before the war, but according to the UN, nearly six million have since fled, and there is little indication that most will return once the war is over. If the refugees do not return to Ukraine, demographic projections suggest that the population could contract by as much as 33% in the decades ahead.
The research paper cited by Kyiv Post predicted that if only 10 percent of refugees return to Ukraine, it would have a profound effect on Ukraine’s future workforce:
“The population would decline by 24-33 percent by 2040 depending on the final number of refugees by the end of the war. Even more striking is the decline in the size of the working age population (by 27-36 percent) and especially the number of children (by 46-56 percent) by 2040,” the paper assessed.
Beyond the loss of human capital, most of the Ukrainian refugees are better educated, with two-thirds having completed higher education, meaning their permanent loss would be another economic blow.
Besides the low fertility rate and the millions of people who have fled the country, another great contributor to a declining population is the astronomical number of Ukrainians killed or injured in war. Russia estimated in January that Ukraine had lost 215,000 troops in 2023 alone, which obviously does not account for tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, lost in 2022.
“Groups of Russian troops are methodically reducing the combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said in a conference call with the leadership of Russia’s military on January 9.
“Over the past year, enemy losses exceeded 215,000 people and 28,000 weapons,” the defence minister added, without further breaking down the figures.
Although the Ukrainian military has not disclosed how many of its soldiers have died, Ukraine’s ruling party leader Davyd Arakhamia had asked President Volodymyr Zelensky to do so to prove that the number is “much smaller” than the 100,000 figure that has been widely shared within the country. This demonstrates that the ruling regime is either in denial about the casualty figures or plans to deceive Ukrainians.
Either way, fooling or not fooling the average Ukrainian, what cannot be avoided is the catastrophic population decline, most of which is attributed to the war today that Zelensky refuses to end as his regime still holds the delusional ideas of conquering territories held by Russia. Although Ukraine was facing demographic issues before the war, fighting has only accelerated the decline and made it impossible for the government to deal with the crisis.
demographic picture looks like the biggest pile of shit seen in 300 years.
nazified ukraine went n turned the wrong corner… fk u pigs u cuda saved lives…
maybe it’s all not as a bleak as this article claims. ukrainian women are currently being impregnated in western europe, by muslim immigrants. while the male slaves are being depopulated in the east, the women are giving birth to mutt orclets in the west 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
muttt orclets… sounds familiar…
banderite nazis don’t care about lives, except their own. bandera tried to turn ukraine into a one party fascist state devoid of any minorities and that’s what his followers want too. that’s exactly what timothy snyder, yale historian and no friend of russia’s wrote in 2010. look it up.
ain’t gonna happen, no matter how many brain dead euros jump on ukraine’s bandwagon.
stay frosty…
some 2,14% cant do that.
this only true they were in front against russia and russians killing many. det er for years contreæed we the pm as well as zelinsky
they probably mean, bleak picture for their organ traficking network in ukraine.
soon as a battle’s over, the first wagon out to collect fallen ukrainians is a refrigerated truck with a surgical team to grab as many organs as they can while they’re fresh. nato weapons ain’t the only thing ukrops sell to the highest bidder.
russain skulle are sold for football. they just remove the too big noses,
this always happens when a rothschild puppet runs a country into the ground fighting its own kind for reasons only a deranged zionist could undetstand.
the ukraine, a possible destination for all the trash currently fording the rio grande….killing the proverbial two birds with one stone….
went shopping at costco yesterday, and as usual, plenty of people aged 20-40 speaking ukrotardish in the store. 8400km from kherson.
i doubt it was ukrainian. plenty here too and they all speak russian and try to forget that hell hole they escaped from.
most of them are russians
yes, because the canadian government has bent over backwards to bring in russians. thanks for playing, dipshit.
ok, i admit i stupid. so now what i do?
i’m kind of stupid and not know big wave of ukaininuns leave but only few russins
german mercenazy diana savita wagner has been demilitarized in the xerson front. she was the grand grand daughter of heinrich luitpold himmler who back then was the reichsführer of the schutzstaffel. diana (or ‘dasha’ like the ukras called her) was a member of the fascist batallion ‘karpatian sich’. rest in piss girl, guys are waiting for you in nazi hell!
so, another nazi, one of the originals. well done.
funny how they all call themselves ‘medics’ and captured azov all call themselves ‘cooks’.
the majority of the refugees where i am are women with young children. the kids go to school here etc. there is no way they are going back voluntarily. they are setting roots. they are quite talented clever people good at sport etc. they make a good addition to the host country. ukraine is destroyed and the men all dead there’s nothing to go back to.
funny….ever been to nazi kanaduh……? the ukro nazi scum own the canook “paradise” and control justine turdeau. the nazi virus thrives on foreign ground.
all are aware canada took too many.
immigrants are fine, when you and they has tools for integration.
in denmark we had big problems with incommen turks. we hardly has any. they know organised. by that the incommers avold fatal errors in most thing. they also has a rapid help line.
according rights in islam they also has the khoran in danish in a modern and tradition version. children are treated much better now – especaily girls and women. they educate, get job and can work side by side with men. all do that here in denmark.
we try help children and girls from donbas too but ukraininuns kill them before they can leave. better anyway – probably terrorists.
the galician identitarian freaks exerted at least as much control over harpo before li’l jt was installed.
i goes for denmark as well. the vomen mainly work. part of them are under endication – some aere upgraded to danish teachers witk ukras language skille.
all children er children are well intehrated – they are from war. many mis their fathers.
all has decent homes a.s.o.
and just other refuges parts of them try to create a new life here. the are not all kind of bad people bot normal ones. some few from ukraine has hard overcrime. those few are for police amd jails and semilar to parts of the rest of the lost empire.
i never wroute this
dont worry serheii, your wife ivanna and daughter mariia are doing fine here in amsterdam, they even perform as team. but what about you? how it the situation in krinky?
with help of the government and donations we should help fix the demographics in the post war ukraine by deploying our fertile brothas
idont see less people on earth is a problem. its more the opposite as well.
you are not fertile anyway
its the same patterm all over and no ukra thing at all.
both russia and ukraine are facing harsh demografic winter when higher educated young people are leaving these post bolshevik hell holes.
jonas strandval = jan kotke = serheii from lvov
all very smart peuple
well for sure smarter than you. at least he can write whole phrases.
both countries are more than thirty years “post-bolshevik”. the soviet union existed less than seventy-five years. so what’s the real problem, li’l nafomosexual?
real problem russia too big. 20 times bigger thaan us plus canada. maybe 30 times
nah, your whore of a wife pussy is even bigger than russia
thank’s to slavic immigrants eu has growing population while russian population is declining again. no one wants to move from west to russia and live in cold houses and poor infrastructure and towns with poor hygiene.
jonas strandval = jan kotke = serheii from lvov (sometimes also poses as finn)
they all terrorists and slit our throats in nightime. must build big army/