Illustrative image. (U.S. Air Force photo by William R. Lewis)
Saudi Arabia is finalizing an agreement on a new military coalition with Somalia and Egypt as a part of its ongoing efforts to quell United Arab Emirates’ influence in the region, Bloomberg reported on January 16.
Two people with knowledge of the matter told the news outlet that Somalian President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud will travel to Saudi Arabia soon to finalize the deal, which they said “aims to foster more strategic collaboration on Red Sea security as well as deeper military cooperation.”
A Somali government spokesperson also confirmed to the outlet that an agreement with the kingdom was in the making, without elaborating.
Spokespeople for the governments of Saudi Arabia and Egypt didn’t reply to questions about the agreement, according to the report.
In recent weeks, all three countries took measures against the UAE, with Saudi Arabia taking the lead by expelling Emirate forces from Yemen and forcing Abu Dhabi’s main proxy in the country, Southern Transitional Council (STC), to dissolve itself.
Somalia followed up by ending all security and defense agreements with the UAE, citing alleged breaches of the country’s sovereignty, national unity, and political independence.
Notably, the direct reason behind the Somali decision was an investigation that was launched after Saudi Arabia accused the UAE of smuggling STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi and other senior members of the group out of Yemen through the breakaway Somali region of Somaliland.
Somaliland was recently recognized by Israel. The UAE, which cultivated deep economic and security ties in the northern Somali region in recent years, was suspected of playing a role in the Israeli decision.
Later, it emerged that Egypt struck an arms shipment that was heading from an area controlled by the Libyan National Army (LNA) in southeast Libya to the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan in the border triangle between the three countries. The attack, which reportedly came after warnings from Cairo to the leadership of the LNA, caused significant losses.
The military coalition Saudi Arabia is forging with Somalia and Egypt will likely be directed mainly against the RSF in Sudan.
Cutting the supply routes of the RSF could allow the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which is allied to the three countries, to score a quick victory against the paramilitary group that attempted to take over Sudan close to three years ago.
The latest Egyptian attack may be just the first of many to come, and even Saudi Arabia could directly support the SAF with airstrikes. The kingdom already took such measures against the STC in Yemen.
The coalition could also attempt to push the UAE out of Somaliland, although the region’s newly-funded relations with Israel could pose a challenge.
Overall, it is clear that Saudi Arabia is determined to end the regional influence of its former ally, the UAE. The relationship between the two Gulf states is now at its lowest, and may not survive the ongoing crisis. Still, with the support of the United States, Abu Dhabi is guaranteed protection within its borders.
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