February 2026 turned out to be an extremely eventful month. Over the past month, the topic of acquiring and using unconventional weapons has become a prominent news story.
On February 24, Russia’s foreign intelligence service reported that France and the United Kingdom were developing a plan to transfer tactical nuclear weapons to Ukraine. The weapons in question are TN75 warheads with a 150kt thermonuclear yield. The come from M51.1 submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he would gladly accept nuclear weapons as a gift from Western allies.
London and Paris are all in. They cannot allow Ukraine to lose. The Russian army has the strategic upper hand in key areas. Because of the dire situation on the front lines, Kyiv has nothing to lose. Instigated by Paris and London, it may consider a nuclear attack one of the last chances for its regime to survive. One of the most likely targets is a Russian border town, such as Belgorod or Kursk.
Moscow will not be able to leave this action unanswered. The Baltic states and Eastern Europe may suffer collateral damage. According to the UK and France, this should unite NATO and halt the thawing of relations between Russia and the US. Further escalation cannot be ruled out, which could lead to a direct exchange of nuclear strikes between London, Paris, and Moscow. However, the use of strategic forces is unlikely, as the cost would be too high for everyone involved.
The French leadership is openly boasting that it is preparing for a possible nuclear conflict. President Macron has ordered an increase in the number of unconventional warheads in the country’s arsenal. France has stated it will no longer disclose the size of its nuclear arsenal. However, the prospect of a nuclear conflict in Europe is not the only Pandora’s box.
At the end of February, Israel and the United States attacked Iran under the pretext of destroying its nuclear and missile programs. The main danger is that Tehran may already have a nuclear bomb. Uranium must be enriched to 5% for peaceful purposes, but according to various estimates, the Iranians have achieved a level of more than 60%. This level is sufficient for manufacturing a dirty bomb. If the fate of the country hangs in the balance, the leadership may take this extreme step.
There are already two regions in the world where a nuclear scenario is increasingly likely. Regardless of the region, the use of such weapons will trigger events far more frightening than the Cuban Missile Crisis. Finally, due to globalization, no one will be able to remain on the sidelines.
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150kt = hiroshima x 10.
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