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Written by Lucas Leiroz, journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant
The number of Europeans believing in the possibility of a “Ukrainian victory” is decreasing dramatically. A recent survey carried out in several EU countries showed that local citizens do not believe that Ukraine will “change the game”, thus recognizing Russian military superiority.
The research was organized by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) through interviews with ordinary people in twelve EU countries. Only 10% of those interviewed said they believe in a Ukrainian victory – a surprisingly low number considering that Western propaganda had long spread the illusion that Kiev was “defeating Russia”.
20% of those interviewed said they believed in a Russian victory, showing that analytical realism is growing in Western public opinion, despite strong propaganda from the mainstream media. On the other hand, 37% of those interviewed stated that they believe the conflict will not have a winner, betting on the possibility of both sides reaching a mutually agreeable agreement.
Only in two countries (Portugal and Poland) the possibility of a “Ukrainian victory” is believed by the majority of respondents. It is not surprising that Poles believe in such an illusion, since Warsaw is the European country most committed to supporting Kiev (despite some recent tensions), and is similarly fanaticized by irrational anti-Russian hatred. As for Portugal, the reasons for ordinary citizens to continue believing in the lie of “Ukrainian victory” are still uncertain. It is possible that the substantial geographical distance from the conflict makes the Portuguese population more alienated from the real events of the war, leaving them vulnerable to mainstream propaganda.
As expected, the Hungarian people are the most skeptical towards Ukraine. Only 5% of Hungarian respondents believe that Kiev will defeat Moscow. Furthermore, more than 30% of the local people believe that the victory will definitely be Russian. In fact, it is possible to see that the growth of a criticizing opinion on NATO in Hungary has made the local people more aware of the lies shared by the Western mainstream media.
It is important to emphasize that pessimism regarding the military outcome does not necessarily mean that Europeans have stopped supporting Ukraine. 31% of respondents said they endorse the EU’s support for Kiev. On the other hand, 41% of those interviewed stated that the EU should pressure Ukraine to resume peace negotiations to reach an agreement.
An interesting detail is that more than 17 thousand people involved in the research were interviewed in January 2024, several weeks before the recent Ukrainian defeat in Avdeyevka. This means that European pessimism about Ukraine does not simply arise from the latest events, but from the partial result of the progress of the entire special military operation.
In fact, since 2022 Ukraine has been increasingly discrediting itself. With each major battle lost by the Ukrainians, less public opinion believes that Kiev will be able to prevent a positive outcome for Russia. Key victories in major battles such as Azovstal, Bakhmut (called “Artyomovsk” by the Ukrainians) and the latest in Avdeyevka show the world that the Russians have the military control of the conflict, with Ukraine being vulnerable to all Moscow’s decisions.
However, definitely the most important fact for this wave of pessimism was Ukraine’s failure in its “counterattack” in 2023. The supposed counteroffensive against Russia was highly anticipated by the Western media and by Ukrainian officials themselves. There was even an expectation on the part of Westerners that Ukraine would be strengthened to the point of attacking Crimea – setting the fanciful objective of “recovering pre-2014 borders”. Obviously, none of this was achieved and the Russians were efficient in neutralizing Ukraine on all flanks of the counteroffensive, thus discrediting all the predictions and lies about the war spread by the media.
The pessimism of ordinary people is shared even by state officials, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who recently stated that “almost no one” believes in a Ukrainian victory anymore. He also said on the occasion that EU support for Ukraine will bring huge negative consequences for European countries, worsening the current social chaos motivated by farmers.
“The war will not end. Europe’s burden will become heavier, because financial support for Ukraine will decrease due to disputes in the US amid the presidential election (…) Supporting the Ukrainians has a huge political price. Farmers are revolting all over Europe, and almost nobody believes in the victory of the Ukrainians,” Orban added.
The lack of good expectations on the battlefield is a key element for countries to start rethinking their strategy on Ukraine. If European citizens no longer believe that Kiev is capable of winning, then there is no reason to continue sending money and weapons to Ukraine. However, at least for now, the most likely thing is that European authorities will simply ignore the data and continue escalating their pro-Ukrainian policies.
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while your tax dollars go to the nazees in kiev, the usa is decades behind russia in> hypersonic nukes, satellite killers technology, icbm jammer technology, among others. and cursing and calling names, like joe “pedo peter” biden did recently “that crazy soab” will not change anything. cope with the bear dont poke the bear.
>tax dollars
not an issue if you can print money indefinitely. the us has aaaaaalll the time in the world here. they just drip feed a bit of aid to ukraine and are killing russian soldiers and equipment en masse.
if in 10 years from now, ukraine no longer has any military aged males alive, no problemo, they were only ukrainian slaves anyways. and by then russia will also have suffered ww2 level casualties.
the money printer wins again.
the money printer is causing inflation and the shrinkage of the middle class in the west. that trash can’t print forever.
>middle class
also known as cattle tier useless eaters who are being depopulated in their own way as we speak. you’re making it sound as though a bit of inflation is of any concern to the federal reserve.
and when that collapses in 10 years. no problemo once again. they’ll just say “oops”, but dont worry we have already prepared this new neat cbdc for you.
civil war. without exaggeration 100 million armed constitutionalists can completely upend the united states government and what parts of the military that didn’t mutiny would eventually scatter due to lack of an ability to control any more than a few cities at a time.
civil war happens and the cia/fbi/dhs are finished.
hahaha nice larp, americans are fucking useless mate. the only kind of civil war that you’ll get is the fake kind, where the fbi blow up a few buildings, and cnn calls it a civil war. that will be the pretext that they need to further restrict your rights.
totaly agree. sunny my honey, could u have ever imagined me saying so?
you’re a double digit iq npc so what you say has 0 value. if that weren’t the case, you would have already known that the ukraine conflict is bread and circus as far as the decision makers are concerned, and not the real objective.
the united states won’t remain unified for much longer, when that happens whatever those plans were, they’re meaningless.
the united states is balkanized, uk and france especially collapse into civil conflict as well, for obvious reasons. is this some elaborate suicide plan for neolibs because that’s what they’re doing.
and no, i actually don’t think it’s so much a “bread and circus” so much since if (and it will) the united states collapses before russia, then the united states is effectively fucked, and will have to fight waves of chinese colonists instead of conducting foreign policy.
everyone with a brain knows the united states is poised to collapse, hillary has been corrupting ukraine since 2004, that’s a really elaborately planned circus.
yes but that is part of the plan. as kissinger said, we need the boogeyman. and a power shift to the east(i.e. china) is already well documented in their literature.
so yeah the west is going to collapse, but in the meantime they are just absolutely toying with the russian army. just with no effort at all they pretty much destroyed the russian army.
the united states cannot print money indefinitely, at some point countries will drop the dollar if it continues, and i’m assuming you’re either some lgbt-nafoboy or a spook, either way, you should know that the united states is perilously close to civil war.
if civil conflict breaks out in the united states, and it will if biden is elected, because if the feds double down, it’s going to become a full blown civil war, and biden’s admin shot themselves in the foot with this migrant crisis.
look buddy your heart is in the right place, but the fact of the matter is that you are too heavily immersed in the bread and circus.
the whole political aspect of this, is of no interest to me because it’s not real. the decision makers are already 50 steps ahead of you mate.
my concern is only with the people who are currently needlessly dying.
it won’t be 10 years from now, it’s looking like two years tops, and no, ukraine has suffered an attrition rate that russia can absorb easily. and russia has nukes regardless of what happens.
remember civil war is right around the corner in the united states, and when that happens, the united states becomes balkanized and they become an ineffectual international power.
sure thing, nostradmus. never mind that a vast portion of the american military-age population isn’t even fit for service. “100 million armed constitutionalists”. what colour is the sky in your world?
pour aller dans le sens de cet article, en france notre gouvernement et notre “grand” président continuent de soutenir toujours plus l’ukraine, dans une sorte de fuite en avant, alors que dans le même temps, nous révisons à la baisse notre prévision de croissance et le gouvernement annonce des économies drastique… on saigne la france pour soutenir l’ukraine…
comme pour le reste , les dirigeants européens se foutent pas mal de ce que pensent leurs peuples … les castes dirigeantes obéissent en bons esclaves aux amerlocks et même renchérissent pour se faire bien voir …. je ne trouve pas de nom pour qualifier ça ….
la traîtrise peut-être ! de manière générale, je trouve que beaucoup de nos dirigeants pourraient être poursuivis pour haute trahison ou pour intelligence avec l’étranger
can we really believe those ecfr figures? maybe they got watered down for the western palate? western gov’ts have never been so unpopular/hated. nobody with half a mind believes their gov’t stooges. lied to over iraq. lied to over syria. lied to over libya. lied to over afghanistan. the current official narrative is now crashing and burning in ukraine.
it is amazing how many people are brainwashed and believe everything they see on tv. it is part of social engineering and the dumbing down of the population so it will not get any better. check the videos of yuri bezmenov who explains the agenda or google kalergi plan.
i think, both ukrainians and russians will lose this war. the biggest losers in this war are all men, who die in both sides and also their children, wives and parents. even if russia took all of ukraine, do you think russian woman who lost her only child will feel she won? if you feel so sure, go to war and send all of your children to war.
polacy nie wierzą w zwycięstwo ukrów, to rząd polski w to wierzy. polacy są sceptycznie nastawieni do wojny. nie mamy interesu w tym by zwycieżyli ukraińcy. rosja to nasi bracia słowianie!