On March 20, the “French Army Support Association” published an article of former French General Dominique Delawerde over the Salisbury case. The
Dominique Delawerde – a former officer in the French military from 1959 to 2005 and a graduate of the prestigious military academy of Saint-Cyr, Dominique Delawarde served 8 years abroad including 3 years in the United States. After commanding military units of the Légion étrangère and Mountain Rangers, Delawarde was also assigned to intelligence affairs at a national staff level.
The text below is an abridged translation of the article to English:
Initially, British researchers stated that the Russian ex-spy Scripal was poisoned in the UK by “Novichok” nerve agent.
This nerve agent became well-known to the audience due to the claims of the Russian military ex-chemist Vil Mirzayanov in 1990s. He published a book «State Secrets» in the USA in 2007, where he provided a few chemical formulas to prove his statements. If this fact is proved, it means “Novichok” is not only originally Russian and can be produced by anyone.
Nobody examined these formulas and OPCW in its 2013 report, summed up that there was no necessary information to announce that “Novichok” even exists.
In 2016, the chef of British Laboratory of Chemical Warfare Agents Doctor Robin Black wrote a science research, in which it was stated “facts of agent presence are almost absent and its composition remains unknown”.
It means that in the Scripal poisoning case, British researchers could identify the agent, which composition was unknown for its own laboratory specializing in this sphere.
Firstly, it could be an unclear case. The hectic media behavior subordinated everything. British politicians with the help of media launched a blame campaign against Russia for “this attack against Britain” and expelled 23 Russian diplomats, but they refused to show the agent’s samples. What for this security?
“If they [Russia] had wanted to take Skripal down, the Russian special services would have done it properly, at the appropriate time and the body would never have been recovered,” adds General Delawarde. In sum, the Skripal case could be a “manipulation attempt” and if ridicule killed, British Prime Minister Theresa May and Foreign Minister Boris Johnson would no longer belong to this world”, Domonique Delawarde concludes.
Russian trace disappears in this situation: no motive, a bad time for execution, a bad workout.
By contrast, we can’t eliminate the case that it could even be maphia’s attempt (it is rather violent at present in Europe).
Considering, the media and politician’s anti-Russian attitude we have become a manipulation object. Thus, tensions between the EU and Russia are increasing. The anti-Russian sanctions could grow up until a military contraction.
What states could have reasons to act in a such way?
First suspected is Israel. Numerous visits Netanyahu aimed to let go Syria and Iran haven’t persuaded Putin. So, it was needed to increase pressure on Russia. Due to a big expat and “sleeping spies”, Israel has a big influence and capabilities in the worldwide.
The USA also have their reasons for Russia to take the responsibility. Two great world powers at the international scene stand against. The alliance of Russia and Iran, good relations between Turkey and Russia lead to the American loss of control in the Middle East. The U. S. want to block the approach between Russia and the EU and the construction of the gas pipeline “North Stream 2”.
The UK could do that in own interests or in the interests of some other country. The Israeli ambassador in London has powerful links and influences within British media. In addition, the UK is a loyal American ally and it couldn’t refuse to help.
UK Prime Minister Theresa May uses the Skripal poisoning to increase pressure on Russia. So, it is impossible to exclude the British involvement in this case.
What is the consequence?
New anti-Russian sanctions will be interposed that will increase the hole between Russia and us, but it will satisfy the USA. The anti-Russian attitude of our political elite will spread in the international community.
The EU will “fire in its leg” realizing the loss of its position in a great state. The USA legislation in the worldwide will enhance the influence.
We will lose Theresa May, Foreign Secretary Boris Jonson and Secretary of State for Defence Gavin Wiliamson. I hope, in the near future the French authorities will follow the British one, as they also are quite influenced by fakes.
Some common sense. Refreshing.
I admire your intelligence in comprehending the gist of the article Tutor as the translation is not the best and English is not your first language :) It is however better to read a poor translation than to read nothing at all of the French officers thoughts.
What if they have staged this attack so they can extend the sanctions against Russia. They have no reasons left to extend it because of the Ukraine, so now they need a new reason, in order to push the Russia into more trouble.
To me the obvious suspect is Ukraine, a country which is struggling in a permanent conflict with Russia and can only hope to improve its hand if the sanctions against Moscow are maintained. Ukraine has the motive, the technical ability, and stands most to gain from raising tensions between Russia and UK. The problem Ukraine has is that the Germans have had about all they are willing to tolerate of the deterioration of relations with Russia. The Germans are not planning on buying expensive American natural gas from Estonia, and would prefer nord stream 2 to be operational ASAP. The skripal incident was a Ukrainian operation that relied on former soviet scientists, which re-engineered a poisonous compound, and half haphazardly deployed it to replicate the Modus Operandi typically associated with the legend of Russian assassinations, like the former president of Ukraine, lukashenko. All these cases are rooted in a conspiracy theory, but rest on the premise that Kremlin is killing people with a calling card. This analysis ignores the importance Putin and Russian leadership places on the world cup, the presidential election mere 4 days after the attack, the massive steps undertaken by Putin to remove sanction from Russia and normalize relations with the west, the total lack of purpose for the operation, the timing of the operation, the current lack technical ability to produce such a toxin, the difficult of controlling a CW if it were released into the wild, and thus potentially huge scope of collateral damage. Thus, the Russian involvement in the incident is increasingly unlikely. Some theorize that the British caused the incident simply to create a pretext to react to it, furthermore, soon enough investigation will reveal that British operatives supplied and manufactured CW in Syria which were used to murder civilians and thus it is possible that the operation was a preemptive attempt to discredit Russia, in order to create deniability when UK will be forced to answer about its own role in murdering civilians with poisonous gasses in Syria.
Despite the poor translation this is a fascinating read – military officers rarely comment on anything. But it is the military officers who have access to all kinds of information not readily available to others, and the training to make informed analysis. What I find interesting is that Dominique Delawerde comes to the conclusions that there are several players who benefit from the Skripal affair much more, than Russia would benefit from an elimination of a spy (if that’s who he was, and even that seems unlikely). The case against Russia seems weak at best and non-existent at worst.
Cui bono? Always the first question. I think the Skripals are the most likely guilty party together with the UK. It’s almost impossible to get dosed (get enough in your system to notice effects) without dying and a healthy young woman and a sick old man both in the same condition after sharing the same space and atmosphere? I don’t buy it. Same with the cop ‘almost’ dying for just opening the door. I think they were dosed (by themselves) minimal and are/were kept in a medically induced coma for a reasonable time. So that points to MI5/6/whatever UK agency. Ofc they may need to kill the old man if there is too much heat. What the UK gains? EU-Russia ties are bad for the UK economy, good EU-Russia relations make UK’s armed forces less needed so not a bargaining chip in Brexit, sucking up to the US, wanting to look important. Loads of scenarios can be thought up.