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Written by Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst
Ever since the Nigerien military under the command of General Abdourahamane Tchiani took power on July 26, there has been an exponential increase in tensions between Niamey and its former colonial masters in Paris. This has gone to the point where France is now seriously considering invading the West African country. The exploitation of “former” French colonies has continued unabated for over half a century even after they were granted a semblance of independence and Paris has been the main beneficiary of this one-sided relationship. Combined with France’s inability to deal with various terrorist insurgencies in the region, this unadulterated neocolonial theft has been the primary reason behind a series of popular uprisings in the Sahel.
Paris is now faced with a strategic dilemma. If it lets Niger continue its path toward actual independence, France will be unable to continue exploiting the country’s natural resources. Namely, several of its former colonies have served as a source of massive wealth extraction and given the recent troubles Paris is facing, these resources might be more important than ever. On the other hand, recent geopolitical changes in the area have left France largely impuissant. After the defeat of its nearly decade-long intervention in Chad last year, Paris has been left with bases in Ivory Coast, Senegal and Gabon. Neither of these can be used effectively as a staging ground for an invasion due to the limited number of troops stationed there.
However, even if France was to somehow find enough soldiers to launch the invasion, none of the three countries border Niger. Gabon is the least logical option, as Cameroon and Nigeria stand between it and Niger, leaving only bases in Senegal and Ivory Coast as viable possibilities. And yet, this is where the issues of basic geography for Paris stop and actual geopolitical ones start. Namely, in order to effectively use its forces from both countries to reach Niger, France needs to go through Mali and Burkina Faso, both of which have already stated that any military action against Niamey will be tantamount to aggression against them. In other words, if France wants to attack Niger, it will also need to attack two more African countries.
A possible alternative for Paris could be the use of its neocolonial influence in the ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States, also known as CEDEAO in French and Portuguese). However, this leaves its members at risk of more anti-Western uprisings, as the belligerent power pole is deeply unpopular in the area. Some members of the ECOWAS, such as Nigeria, might be the best geographical option, but given the fact that Paris has little to no influence in Abuja, this is extremely unlikely. Not to mention the fact that Nigeria has more than enough problems of its own and the last thing it needs is to serve as the staging ground for a neocolonial invasion. Logically, this leaves Chad as the only option, but this too is a very long shot.
To make matters worse for France, Algeria has joined the chorus of Niger’s allies. The French archrival that spearheaded the independence of many of its “former” colonies in the 1960s is effectively an African superpower, heavily armed and highly motivated to never allow Paris or any other Western (neo)colonial power to establish a firm foothold in the region. This still leaves Chad as the only viable option for an invasion, as the country was an instrumental staging ground for virtually all French military operations in the area, including the illegal invasion of Libya. However, reaching Chad at this point is easier said than done and this still leaves most of the geopolitical issues unresolved. Also, all geographical considerations remain.
Namely, the Nigerien capital of Niamey is located in the southwestern corner of the country, close to the border with Burkina Faso. Thus, even in the unlikely case that none of its neighbors intervene, Niger is still left with a comfortable window of opportunity to resist the invasion. This could end in a disaster for France, as yet another military defeat in the area would inevitably lead to a complete collapse of the neocolonial system it left in place in the 1960s. On the other hand, if Paris doesn’t intervene, this will happen anyway, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Either way, the dilemma inevitably results in a geopolitical catch-22, as leaving things as they are could also encourage others to revolt against Western neocolonialism elsewhere in Africa and possibly beyond.
As for France’s NATO allies, they’ve been largely quiet and non-militant, including the United States (a rather uncommon feature in their usually belligerent foreign policy). Washington DC has a military base in the central part of the country, the Niger Air Base 201, run by US AFRICOM (African Command), but its operational capabilities are mostly limited to drone strikes, with the troops deployed there largely composed of a skeleton crew that provides basic security. Coupled with the recent cooling of US-French relations, this makes it highly unlikely that the Pentagon would give the go-ahead for any sort of American involvement in a possible French invasion, even though it’s in Washington DC’s interest to keep Western neocolonialism in Africa alive for as long as possible.
france has outlived it’s usefulness as a colonial power as some of the most oppressed african countries outgrow their colonial masters.
well written and clearly describes france’s well deserved dilemma. we certainly are living in interesting times that might actually see the complete liberation of africa from colonial influences and a new day for africa within a yer or two. definitely not springtime for gitler and germany, or all the euro gangsters… also interesting that these comments do not show any capital letters. wassup wid dat?!
fk france let them eat cake.
let them eat uranium cake?
great.. before crucifying french, could the author start by clarifying who is backing the rebels? the coup is too well coordinated between african countries to have been organised by a single local warlord.. switch from one master to a worst one (china for example) is no gain for niger people.
do wake up. russians and chinese aren’t colonials. they offer win-win trade deals not ripoffs and build infrastructure, railways and ports and such without forcing anyone into debt peonage.
your belittling comment betrays your intellectually challenged mindset…
1) the nigeriens (“niger people”) are backing the officers heading the coup because they’re fed up of masters. 2) the “local warlord” as you call him is the head of the national guards and he’s far from being single as he has the backing of the country military. 3) china is a fair trading partner and not a master.
are you stuck on stupid?
france is upset that its propganda channels rfi and france24 have been blocked in niger. although they suspended sputnik and rt at the start of the smo. the irony…
wager is already there, most likely why french and nato not there yet.
yangs have bases all over africa, nigeriens are already kicking them out which is another reason the yangs ie nato want their anointed man back in place.
africa faces its destiny, it is up to them to behave like men. in the north of morocco and algeria thousands of spanish and french were massacred during the colonial wars. proof that these homosexuals have never been invincible :)
abdullahkingofisrael firstly abdullah is not your name most like your an israeli or an indian to spread disinformation reality millions of algerians !morrocans etc were massacred by so called french settlers supported by group called osa so when lie you are peddling whole of western world government are based on deception,lies and genocide you are forgetting millions killed by zionist usa britain france invasions of somalia iraq syria afghanistan pakistan libya etc
yo french thugs! why not try paying for africa’s resources instead of ripping them off? well soon you’ll have no choice, with russian and chinese help africa will soon be free of the colonial yoke. next stop: south america.
by my calculations ecowas hasn’t enough available troops to intervene nigeria is the only member with a sizable military and it is heavily involved in at least 3 internal conflicts. they could optimistically deploy 30,000 and niger, guinea, mali and burkina faso have 90,000 combined forces of course african armies its hard to say how many are actually deployable so lets say only half then they still have 45,000 against 30,000.
thank you for your comment. some unconfirmed reports states that nigeria has already advanced some troops at the border with niger and that there is some kind of insurrection heating up in senegal.
i heard mauritania is against ecowas intervention as well as chad. nigeria seems to be the deciding factory as they do have 230,000 troops but 130,000 are supposed to be fighting boko haram. senegal is sadly the second biggest army left in ecowas with 15,000. another big reason why nigeria would need to be the 1 to do it is of course the fact its the only member with territory on the other side of the niger river. should be interesting in the coming days.
nigeria’s senate shot it down benin ghana and senegal are the only states that are willing to participate benin has less then 5,000 ghana and senegal each have 15,000 my guess is france will have to contribute the majority of forces.
france seems to have this effect on african countries… the ‘algeria effect’ some might say, regardless of what you call france’s criminal foreign policy, the days of free yellow cake are clearly over.
a lot of people in france will be poorer.
looks like france is about to have its 1956 suez canal moment…
time to kill some more niggers…heheheh…
get rid of the frenchs. put them out of niger.
author fails to mention that france played sinister and devious game in niger and sahel in order to give them a pretext to have their troops on ground by creating isis with help of israelis and indians to terrorize and destabilize niger and sahel .nigerian found this out whenever they captured isis operatives they had to ask permission from france and israel each time these operatives were flown out without traces
hope snail eaters ass gets kicked like in vietnam and algeria