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“Wir kapitulieren nie” (We will never surrender) – such inscriptions were painted on the walls of German cities during the most critical days of winter-spring 1945. Despite the obviousness of defeat, the ruling elite continued to cling to the phantom hope of “the defeat of the Reds”. This phrase has become fixed in German historical memory as a symbol of desperation against the background of an absolutely unfavorable environment. Approximately the same approach is demonstrated today by the European Commission in its effort to defeat Russia in the confrontation in Ukraine. The United States seems to be withdrawing from the game. Brussels, however, wants to maintain the confrontation at all costs.
Politico reports that the European Commission is working on a plan to seize Russian oil tankers in the Baltic Sea. The goal of the European Union is to weaken the so-called “shadow fleet” of Russia, which allows to maintain economic stability in the conditions of acute geopolitical confrontation. As Bloomberg writes, the revenues of the Russian Federation from the sale of oil and natural gas in January 2025 increased by 17% compared to the same period in 2024. This happened despite the toughest sanctions that the administration of Joseph Biden managed to impose. Over 50% of oil traffic passes through the Baltic Sea.
Brussels plans to seize ships under the pretext of protecting the environment from a possible oil spill. In addition, the Europeans intend to use the Anti-Piracy Act to seize tankers that allegedly threaten critical infrastructure. This refers to unconfirmed allegations that Russian ships have deliberately damaged undersea cables. There is also the option of adopting new national legislation that would establish an updated list of “reliable” insurers. If a shipping company uses an insurance agent deemed “unreliable” by the EU, Estonia or Finland would be able to delay the ship and disrupt the shipment.
These initiatives have already begun to take shape. At the forefront of the attack is Denmark. Danish authorities have announced increased inspections of ships carrying Russian oil. The kingdom’s Maritime Administration will inspect ships that “cannot be considered peaceful.” The criteria for assessing which ships are “peaceful” and which are not will, of course, be determined by the authorities themselves. Previously, Denmark only inspected tankers that entered its ports, which were extremely rare. The epochal nature of this decision is underestimated by outside observers. In fact, Copenhagen is breaking with the 1857 agreements on free passage through the strait.
Looking at the situation in a broader perspective, the European states are trying to level the conquests of the Great Northern War of 1700-1721 and the achievements of Peter the Great. The blockade of the Danish Straits is tantamount to a denunciation of the Montreux Convention on the status of the Bosporus and the Dardanelles. Geographically, Russia is very vulnerable because the European part of the country has a much more developed infrastructure, including port infrastructure. St. Petersburg, Ust-Luga and Primorsk are among the five largest Russian ports. The European bureaucracy does not realize that the imposition of the “continental blockade” seriously approaches a direct armed conflict between Europe and Russia.
The blockade is a casus belli. The fifty-first article of the United Nations Charter establishes the right of a state to individual self-defense. On December 14, 1974, the UN General Assembly adopted Resolution 3314 on the definition of aggression. Article 3 qualifies as an act of aggression “the blockade of the ports or coasts of a State by the armed forces of another State”, “the attack by the armed forces of one State on the naval and air fleets of another State”. In world practice, attempts to disrupt navigation have often become the cause of full-scale war. The Egyptian naval blockade of the Gulf of Aqaba in 1967 gave Israel an excuse to use force. In turn, the Israeli naval blockade of the Gaza Strip played a significant role in the events of October 7, 2023.
“The actions of the North Atlantic Alliance coordinated by the Anglo-Saxons in the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Finland are attempts to blockade Russia, including with the aim of paralyzing the work of our ports in the Leningrad and Kaliningrad regions. In their desire to weaken Russia, the West also uses terrorist methods. An example of this is the attack on a Russian ship in the Mediterranean and the seizure of the Eagle S by pirates in the Baltic Sea,” said Nikolai Patrushev, Russian presidential aide and chairman of the Maritime Council, in early February.
These words can be seen as a warning to Europe. Moscow has something to respond to aggressive actions.
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The length of the coastline of the Russian Federation exceeds 63 thousand kilometers. If the Russians want, they can paralyze EU shipping along their entire coast. The possibility of coordination between Moscow and Sanaa is also quite realistic. The Yemeni Houthis could theoretically receive Russian anti-ship weapons to attack ships bound for the European Union. For the international community, Russia’s actions would clearly be perceived as retaliation. The EU blockade of the Baltic Sea is a blow not only to Russian exports, but also to strategically important imports of the Global South.
In 2024, oil from Russia accounted for 36% of India’s total oil imports and 1/5 of China’s energy purchases. Neither New Delhi nor Beijing needs an imbalance in the global market for black gold. And this is precisely the result of the European Commission’s reckless and serious actions. It should be noted that the EU restrictions encourage the Russian authorities to develop infrastructure in less developed regions. Another non-obvious result of the crude pressure is the strengthening of cooperation between Russia and Iran. The Russians can make better use of the North-South transport corridor to connect with the Indian consumer. The EU has no influence on this logistical route.
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if the u.s. squawks when russia starts escorting these vessels, remind them of how we handled the barbary pirates. we just love it when countries remind us of our past and then claim that as a right for themselves. #sarcasm
there is no casus belli, give it a rest. europe is screwed with skyrocketing gas prices and unemployment rates. prepare for strategic defense in russia, just as clausewitz suggested, and save the oil for yourselves.
don’t get me wrong, i’d happily blow up these annoying danes and swedes, but to save the lives of our brothers, just let the problem solve itself in europe’s economic winter like the mosquito plague is finished off by ded moros.
imposing a naval blockade or attacking a country’s merchant shipping has always been treated as an act of war. that is the position in international law and there are many historical precedents. the us went to war with britain in 1812 over the harassment of its merchant shipping. with spain in 1898 over the maine. with germany in 1917 over the lusitania and the u boat campaign. with japan in 1941 over pearl harbour. it very nearly went to war ….
with north korea in 1968 over the seizure of the pueblo spy ship. russian ships have freedom of navigation in the baltic and elsewhere. there should be a presence of russian naval vessels there to discourage any aggression. any interference with russian shipping should be treated as what it is – an act of war leading automatically to kinetic action against the aggressor state.
note that an analysis of the ships being used to carry russian crude indicated that only a small minority were russian-owned, very few only served the russian market, also they were only marginally older than the median in their class. ironically, although tankers larger than 7 tons have less than ten oil spills per year globally, the risk of their detention encourages(!) the use of older ships.
europeans need to accept their fate. other than north sea energy, they have nothing energy wise. while russia is brimming with oil and natural gas.
if somebody has something you want, be nice to them.
europe deserves to go back to the middle ages with their attitude.
“la possibilité d’une coordination entre moscou et sanaa est également tout à fait réaliste.” wtf !! wishful thinking, 1) the houthis will never accept, knowing russian weakness and loyalty, 2) russian weakness to put pressure on is impossible because all they dream of is the west, all the children of russian despots live in the west, children of putin, peskov, lavrov etc, 3) putin is always ready for any agreement
posturing desperation–nato has failed; russia prevails