Global Competition For Arctic Ramps Up

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The majority of the Russian cruise missile submarine are in the Northern Fleet. Click to see full-size image

Written by Aleksandr Shirokorad; Originally appeared in Russian on nvo.ng.ru

Why does China need new areas for combat patrols of its missile submarines?

On May 6, 2019 at the session of the Arctic Council in Finland, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo broke out in an angry tirade against China.

“The Arctic countries should monitor the actions of China, which wants to turn the Arctic Ocean into a new South China Sea,” the US diplomat said in particular.

But why is the head of the State Department dissatisfied? The fact that several Chinese merchant ships travelled to Europe and back through the Northern Sea Route? So the vessels of other countries go through this route. There are no US ships among them. Taking into account the geography of the American trade routes, shipowners from the United States are no more concerned about the North Sea Route than flying to Mars. But Michael Pompeo is quite concerned with this for some reason.

However, the American media soon revealed the reason behind the State Department and Pentagon’s alarm. It turned out that politicians and admirals in the United States were horrified by the prospect of the appearance in the Arctic of … Chinese missile submarines. Why? Here it is necessary to understand the question of the need for missile submarines patrolling some areas, which is an issue often avoided by our politicians and admirals.

Bastions of the Sea

In the fall of 1962, during the Caribbean crisis, four of the best Soviet Project 641 diesel-electric submarines were sent to the shores of Cuba. Each boat carried 22 torpedoes, including one or two (according to different sources) armed with a nuclear warhead. Alas, the American anti-submarine warfare (ASW) in the Sargasso Sea quickly found the boats and even forced three of them to surface. In this regard, the campaign to the US coast of seven Project 629 diesel-electric submarines, each of which carried three R-13 surface-launched ballistic missiles with a range of 600 km, was canceled. The decision was absolutely correct The Americans would never allow them to get into range and assume firing position. Additionally, 12 Project 644 and 655 diesel-electric submarines, armed with P-5 surface-launched cruise missiles, were not even planned to be sent to the Atlantic.

So, in 1962, all Soviet missile submarines were powerless before the US ASW system. But now, 20-25 years later, these same boats became a formidable, and most importantly, nigh-invulnerable weapon, and their volley could lead to the death of millions of people in the NATO countries. That is a result of the simple fact that the patrol areas of these submarines were changed. True, the project 629 boats were upgraded according to project 629A and received three R-21 underwater-launched missiles with a range of 1,420 km each. But the project 629A in the 1980s did not have a single chance to launch missiles from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans off the coast of the United States.

On July 1st, 1976, the 16th division of submarines based in Liepaja was formed as part of the Baltic Fleet. It consisted of 15 diesel-electric submarines: six project 629A submarines equipped with R-21 missiles, as well as six project 651 submarines and three project 665 submarines armed with P-5 cruise missiles (range 500 km) and P-6 anti-ship missiles. This division was disbanded soon after, on October 1st, 1990.

Submarines with R-21 ballistic missiles held London, Paris and Milan, and ones with P-5 cruise missiles held Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Norway at gunpoint. Additionally, four project 644 submarines and one project 655, equipped with P-5 and P-6 missiles, were sent to the Black Sea, where they could hit the entire Bosporus area, part of the Aegean Sea and a number of American bases in Turkey.

In the Baltic and in the Black Sea, missile-carrying submarines found themselves in the so-called protected areas of combat actions (ЗРБД [ZRBD]). They were protected by submarines, surface ships, and most importantly, anti-submarine and fighter aircraft.

As we see, boats absolutely incapable of fighting in the ocean in 1962, became a formidable force 30 years later at ZRBD.

The US Flexes Its Muscles

In 1959–1961, the United States made a revolution in the naval business, commissioning five George Washington-class nuclear submarines, each of which was armed with 16 Polaris A-1 underwater-launched missile with a range of 2,200 kilometers. These submarines were position in England at the base of Holly-Loch. On November 15, 1960, the George Washington missile submarine left the base and for the first time entered a 66-day combat patrol into the Norwegian Sea.

On June 26, 1962, the US Navy adopted the Polaris A-2 missile with a range of 2,800 km, and on September 28, 1964, the A-3 with a range of 4,600 km. Ultimately, in the period between 1959-1967, the United States naval strategic nuclear forces were created, soon 41 strategic nuclear-powered submarines with ballistic missiles (SSBNs) were deployed, and carrying out combat patrols, in addition control, support and maintenance systems were created.

From 1971 to 1975, the American SSBNs were reequipped with Poseidon missiles, whose range varied from 3,330 km (with 14 split warheads) to 5,600 km (with 6 split warheads).

SSBNs with Polaris and Poseidon missiles were based in: 14th Squadron – Holy-Loch (Clyde Bay, Great Britain, 1960), relying on the rear naval base of New London and patrolling SSBNs in the Norwegian and Barents Seas; 15th Squadron – Apra (Guam, USA, 1966)  and Pearl Harbor (USA) rear base with SSBN patrols in the Philippine Sea; 16th Squadron – Rota (Cadiz Bay, Spain, 1964) and Charleston (USA) logistic base with patrolling of SSBNs in the Mediterranean; 18th Squadron – Charleston (South Carolina, USA).

The areas of their combat patrols were the North Atlantic, the Barents Sea, the Mediterranean and the Sea of ​​Japan, as well as the northern part of the Pacific Ocean.

Unlike the United States, Soviet missile submarines were forced to operate in adverse military-geographical conditions in both the Atlantic and Pacific theaters of war. Thus, in order to use weapons across the territory of the United States, Soviet missile submarines had to make 7-8 thousand-kilometer crossings to combat patrol areas and back, operating in the US and NATO navy-dominated zones.

Answer to Washington

The Soviet Project 667A submarine, which sailors dubbed the “Vanya Washington”, became the Soviet response to the Washington-class submarine. Each of them was equipped with 16 R-27 missiles with a range of 2,400 km. This made it possible to reduce the patrol zone of boats for a distance of up to 2,000 km from the US coast.

The first combat service of the Project 667A missile submarine in the Atlantic began in June 1969. After 16 months, from October 1970, strategic submarines of this type began to serve in the Pacific. By 1971, in the areas of combat service there were regularly four Project 667A missile submarines, of which three were in the Atlantic Ocean and one in the Pacific. From August 1973, two missile submarines from the Northern and Pacific fleets began to carry out regular combat service. This order of deployment of strategic submarines persisted until 1976.

The second revolution in the Russian Navy was the adoption of the first in the world intercontinental ballistic missile – the R-29. Now, missile submarines could fire at the enemy’s country virtually from their home port.

By the Decree of the Council of Ministers of the USSR No. 177-67 of March 12, 1974, the D-9 complex with the R-29 missile was accepted into service with the USSR Navy, which received 18 Project 667B Murena nuclear submarines. The first submarine of this project, the K-279, was commissioned on December 27st, 1972, and the last – K-520 – on December 28st, 1977.

The American response was the intercontinental ballistic missiles Trident-1 and Trident-2, with a firing range of 7,400–11,000 km, which were commissioned in 1979 and 1990, respectively.

According to media reports, the Project 667B SSBN could carry out combat patrols in the marginal seas of the USSR: since 1974, in the Barents, White, Kara, Norwegian regions, since 1976 in the Okhotsk and Japan seas, as well as in the ice-covered regions of the Arctic. In the specified water areas the ZRBD started being created. Multi-purpose nuclear submarines carried out combat service in these areas, and, where possible, surface ships and aircraft.

According to the data I found in open sources, for the first time in 1976, four of our submarines set off for the Arctic: three with ballistic missiles and one multi-purpose. Thus, the Project 667B K-472 submarine from the 41st division of the 11th flotilla of submarines of the Northern Fleet, carrying combat patrols in the Kara Sea from June 18th to September 6th, spent 10 days under ice.

The project 667BD K-93 missile submarine from the 13th division of the 3rd flotilla of submarines of the Northern Fleet, spent 6 days under the ice during its first patrol.

In the course of combat patrols in 1977, our missile submarines, which now became known as strategic missile submarines (SSBN), in the Barents and Kara Seas made landings for 8 days (K-182) and 6 days (K-421).

During 1979, 11 Soviet nuclear submarines sailed under the ice in 12 voyages. In addition, 7 of those trips were by 6 cruise missile submarine.

In July 1980, at the Zvezdochka plant, the K-457 submarine was equipped with the NOK-1 (circular navigation detector). As a result of the tests, it was concluded that during the summer-autumn period, the SSBN of this project could be surfaced to perform missile firing in a continuous ice field with a thickness of up 1.2 m. In exceptional cases, the SSBN could break ice up to 2 m thick. I note this, because American submarines since 1967 were designed to break through ice up to 2 m thick, but they did it only by chopping, with the hull itself. The hull had to be cleared of ice with a special device.

In 1981, seven of our SSBNs, armed with intercontinental ballistic missiles carried out patrols under the ice. Of these, the K-182 submarine spent 29 days under the ice, K-447 – 10 days, K-506 – 15, K-496 – 28, K-180 – 26, K-433 – 33, K-221 – 34, K -517 – 43, K-467 – 12, K-387 – 3, and K-255 – 14 days. In total, in 1982, our missile submarines made 11 trips to the Arctic.

The Pentagon’s leadership fears that missile submarines under a Chinese flag will soon appear in the Arctic Ocean.

Missile Barrage from the Top of the World

It should be especially noted that if the D-5 rocket complex with the R-27 rocket had limitations to start at 85 degrees north latitude, then the next D-9 complex with the R-29 rocket became the world’s first high-latitude complex, meaning that the rocket launch could even be made from the north pole.

The world’s first high-latitude launch was made on July 3, 1981 by the Soviet Project 667B K-447 nuclear submarine. The submarine broke the ice at the coordinates of 79 degrees 41 minutes north latitude and 65 degrees 47 minutes east longitude, between Novaya Zemlya and Franz Josef Land, and fired two P-29 missiles with an inert warhead. Our missile submarine, as in most other cases, was escorted by the Project 671RT K-467 torpedo submarine.

From August 16th to October 20th, 1982, the Project 671RTM K-255 nuclear-powered submarine remained under water for 44 days. The boat first entered the Strait of McClure in Canadian Archipelago. From August 18th to September 7th, 1985, the K-129 SSBN, escorted by the Project 671RTM K-218 multipurpose nuclear submarine, made a trip to the central part of the Arctic to the North Pole, spending 14 days under the ice. Moreover, the K-218 made a hole in the ice at the North pole by using combat torpedoes and launched two R-39 missiles at the Kura landfill in Kamchatka.

A submarine under the Arctic ice is almost invulnerable to the aircraft and the surface ships of the enemy. Detection by spacecraft is completely out of the question. The “noise” of our submarines was regularly reduced, and during ice movements acoustic detection was extremely difficult.

In the author’s opinion, tracking by American and NATO “submarine hunters” behind our submarines in shallow water areas and near the Russian islands is also very difficult. First, in shallow water, the range of a hydroacoustic station drops by a factor of 3 to 5 times. And secondly, in peacetime, our boat can enter the strait, given cover by its country’s territorial waters, and break away from the pursuit.

Another issue is that in peacetime our territorial waters in the Arctic are presumed reliably protected from the penetration of American and British submarines.

How to close the gaps between our islands in the Arctic and the Kuril ridge? Yes, same as 100 years ago the gap at its narrowest positions was protected of enemy submarines with mines and nets. And can you put mines in your territorial waters in peacetime? Yes, easily! I can cite dozens of examples of similar actions over the past hundred years. For example, the Swedes on the Baltic Sea, in their territorial waters and near them, periodically throw quite a few depth charges to counter the mythical Russian submarines.

As it can be seen, there are more than enough reasons for panic in the White House over the penetration of Chinese missile submarines into the Arctic, but is there any reason for it?

The Secret Fleet

Detailed information about the missile submarines that China has is strictly classified. However, based on data from foreign media, we can conclude that the Chinese have six Project 094 (Type 094) missile submarines, each of which carries 12 JL-2 ballistic missiles. The first launch of the JL-2 rocket took place in 2009. The firing range is estimated at 8-9,000 km. And recently the media reported on the construction of a new Chinese Project 096 nuclear submarine, equipped with 24 new JL-3 ballistic missiles. The first such boat will be commissioned in 2022–2023.

Chinese missile submarines are based in the port of Dalyan, formerly Port Arthur (the northernmost base), in Qingdao, while the southernmost base, Yalong, is located on Hainan Island.

From 1950 until the beginning of the twentieth century, the Chinese fleet operated exclusively in its coastal areas. But in the last 20 years, the Chinese warships entered the World Ocean. Let me remind you that now the People’s Republic of China by tonnage of warships is in second place in the world: the US Navy tonnage – 3.3 million tons; Chinese Navy – 1.6 million tons; Russian Navy – 1.1 million tons.

During the Russian-Chinese exercises “Naval Interaction 2017”, Chinese ships visited the Baltic and Japanese seas, as well as the southern part of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk. In 2015, four Chinese ships in the Bering Sea passed along the coast of Alaska, and in 2017, Chinese intelligence ships were spotted off the coast of Alaska and Australia. Note that today China has 11 intelligence ships.

Chinese warships regularly go to the Mediterranean Sea, and in 2012 they visited the Black Sea for the first time. Between April – June 2016, the Project 093 nuclear torpedo submarine circled around Asia to Oman, and then went to the shores of Somalia.

According to media reports, the Chinese missile submarines patrol only in its coastal seas. In the author’s opinion, this is precisely what is holding back the construction of nuclear missile submarines. First, the enormous distance from the coast of China to the United States, and most importantly, in the open coastal seas, the combat stability of Chinese missile submarines is clearly not up to par. Having entered the Arctic, the Chinese are able to “kill two birds with one stone”: the vulnerability of their boats is sharply reduced and the distance to potential targets is reduced several times. Thus, the distance from the Chinese coast near Shanghai to New York is 11.8 thousand km, and from the North Pole to New York – 3.4 thousand km, that is, 3.5 times less.

China’s economic power allows it, by 2030, to bring the number of missile nuclear-powered submarines to 20–30 units. With the consent of Russia at research stations on our Arctic islands, the Chinese can deploy a supply and communications system for their missile submarine. In the future, the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China may also start creating a joint anti-aircraft system and missile defense system in the Arctic, which is important, given the fact that the Americans have been planning to strike the USSR and the Chinese People’s Republic since the early 1950s.

A natural question arises: can Chinese missile submarines in the Arctic or the air defense and missile defense systems pose a threat to Russia? Definitely not. Russia and China have a multi-thousand-kilometer common border, and transferring nuclear missiles from the border to the distant Arctic is complete insanity. A joint air defense and missile defense system in the Arctic cannot physically cause any damage to Russia or China.

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