On May 24, the Houthis repelled an attack by the Saudi-led coalition and its proxies on their newly-captured positions in the town of Qat’aba in the central Yemeni province of Dali’.
The Yemeni group’s media wing released a short video showing Houthi fighters targeting coalition troops gatherings with mortars, anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) and heavy machine guns, effectively forcing them to withdrew from the Qat’aba’s outskirt.
Earlier this week, the Houthis captured dozens of positions around Qat’aba, solidifying their presence in the strategic town. The Yemeni rebels captured loads of weapons and dozens of vehicles from Saudi-backed forces during their advance.
Despite this failure, the attack on Qat’aba indicates that the Saudi-led coalition is planning to put an end to the Houthis advance in Dali’. The group capturing the entire northern part of the province over the last two months.
The Coalition is “planning to end” the advance of Ansar Allah and supporting local tribes in Dhale Province. This plan will have the same fate as all previous plans, failure.
The Coalition put up a good fight though and gave Ansar Allah and allied tribes a hard time. That said, although the Coalition are desperately trying to prevent a collapse in the South, they have so far managed only to delay what is increasingly looking like the eventual fall of South Yemen.
I predicted earlier that Aden will be taken by Ansar Allah no later then the fall. My conviction that this will happen has only gotten stronger. The Coalition attempts to stop the advance was only temporary and not enough to stop what will be the inevitable loss of Dhale province. This opens up the road to Aden.
Amazingly, Ansar Allah has maintained strong engagement with the Coalition in the North while going head to head with the Coalition in the South. A year ago few would have thought this situation would be remotely possible and yet here we are.
2019 is a special year indeed, with much more to come.
That was my thinking to but I noticed some clues to there being bigger plans. The axis of attacks in the South suggest the goal is to threaten Aden itself. Reports have also discussed Aden as the end-goal and Ansar Allah have spoken of the important symbolic value of Aden to the Saudi/UAE puppet regime – That was put out there as a signal for sure.
So Ansar Allah must have thought this through and I think I figured out some of the game plan. You bring up the problem of open terrain in any effort to seize Aden, a very good point. So why is the Coalition fighting so hard to prevent Dhale falling when they could preserve troops and set up a defensive line in more favourable open terrain where air power will be much more effective? I think it has to do with shifting tribal allegiances. The Coalition leadership assumed easy victory over Ansar Allah and so did not sufficiently cultivate tribal support in the South (and definitely not in the North). Now the Coalition are paying the price.
The attack in the south commenced following increasingly overt opposition of the Coalition among the Southern tribes and near total consolidation of Northern tribal support behind Ansar Allah thanks to Coalition stupidity. Ansar Allah, I assume, was counting on tribal support in their advance in Dhale and apparently have been getting such support.
The intense Coalition attempts to stop the advance are a sign of great concern over collapse in the South and the need to turn the tide – tribal elders will back a winner and the Coalition do not look like winners right now despite a good effort (the first I have seen in my opinion). The ineffectiveness of the Coalition to halt the advance, despite an intense effort, makes it more likely more Southern tribes will turn against the Coalition and that mercenaries will show even less staying power – if that’s even possible.
Most importantly, if Dhale Province is completely overrun, the tribal elders in the vicinity of Aden may throw there lot in with Ansar Allah and pose a threat to the Coalition rear area, sabotaging supply lines, tying down troops and expect spike in desertion among Coalition forces.
Coalition weakness and wholesale tribal revolt against the Coalition could spell doom and seal Aden’s fate.
This is my assessment and your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
Will give what you say some thought. I will say this much, I assume that Ansar Allah are cognizant that ceasefires are used for regrouping by the Coalition and so they should have contingencies is place. What they might be and how effective not sure about but will think about it.