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Written by Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst
It’s virtually guaranteed that the Kiev regime will get the MGM-140 ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System), a US-made tactical/theater ballistic missile system with a maximum engagement range of approximately 300 km and a supersonic speed of up to Mach 3. While its capabilities are far from Russian counterparts, such as the now legendary “Iskander” with a hypersonic speed (up to Mach 8, with maneuvering capabilities for its missiles) and a range of approximately 500 km, this is still enough to jeopardize Russian supply lines, as well as civilian settlements deeper within Moscow’s territory. The ATACMS can also be fired from two platforms, namely the tracked M270 MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket System) and the wheeled M142 HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System), both of which have been delivered to the Neo-Nazi junta forces well over a year ago.
When paired with adequate ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) assets, which NATO fields extensively, particularly in the vicinity of Russian borders, the ATACMS can be quite a challenge. Its battlefield performance can be significantly amplified through the effective usage of real-time ISR data that essentially acts as a major force multiplier. This is where the legal “grey areas” of warfare get even more complicated. Namely, Moscow is doing its best to keep the scope of the SMO localized, but NATO continues to escalate, as evidenced by the resurgent presence of its ISR platforms around Russia’s borders, particularly in the Black Sea. The Russian military already shot down some of NATO’s ISR platforms, resulting in several months of pause in flights close to the SMO zone. However, the belligerent alliance recently restarted this highly destabilizing practice.
Moscow is perfectly aware that the political West controls the Kiev regime’s targeting, even issuing orders which Russian assets are to be attacked. The sole reason why Russia hasn’t responded by shooting down all NATO ISR platforms in the relative vicinity of its forces is that it wants to avoid escalating the conflict. However, the US-led political West sees this as a weakness and an opportunity to hurt Russia, because the way the Ukrainian conflict is being conducted is highly beneficial to NATO. Namely, the way that the political West is engaged in hostilities in Ukraine would simply be impossible in a shooting war with Moscow. The reason is quite simple. One of the very first targets for Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) would be NATO’s ISR platforms. Precisely these are responsible for the vast majority of data being relayed to the Kiev regime.
As Ukraine borders four NATO members, this gives the belligerent alliance a unique opportunity to use their airspace for ISR flights. And while the political West argues that these are “perfectly legal” and that the aircraft “just passively collect information”, the impact of their activities is anything but “passive”. NATO ISR platforms are directly responsible not only for the deaths and injuries of Russian servicemen, but also civilians. The United States Air Force (USAF) and the British Royal Air Force (RAF) are the most active NATO members in this regard, particularly with their Boeing RC-135V/W SIGINT (signals intelligence) aircraft that regularly fly over the Black Sea. These are among the belligerent alliance’s most commonly used strategic ISR assets and play a crucial role in spying on Russian forces, covering the collection of ELINT (electronic intelligence) and COMINT (communications intelligence).
These are used to find gaps in Russian defenses (particularly radar coverage) which are then reported to the Neo-Nazi junta forces that can exploit them to launch attacks on valuable assets, as evidenced by recent air strikes with NATO-sourced cruise missiles. This makes ISR aircraft far deadlier than satellites that simply cannot loiter in an area to provide a constant supply of real-time data. NATO SIGINT aircraft also complicate Russian communications significantly, as military units are forced to maintain radio silence or use encryption, which slows down battlefield coordination, thus degrading their effectiveness. More precisely, Moscow’s military planners simply have to pay close attention to what sort of information will end up in the hands of NATO, as this could help in the creation of better countermeasures against Russian forces.
The sheer magnitude of ISR data collected by SIGINT aircraft has helped the Kiev regime forces to a certain extent, but not nearly enough to create conditions for defeating Russian troops. Still, it’s often enough to bring the much-needed PR “victories” that are a crucial part of the overall propaganda war. However, with the delivery of the ATACMS, things can become a lot more complicated, forcing the Russian military to expand the scope of the SMO. Namely, since it’s a land-based missile system, the ATACMS is logistically far less strenuous than the Franco-British “Storm Shadow/SCALP EG” or the German-Swedish “Taurus”, both of which are air-launched and are limited by the number of carrier aircraft (in the case of Neo-Nazi junta, that would be the Soviet-era Su-24), as well as the logistics for the said aircraft. To say nothing of the possibility these could get shot down.
On the other hand, the launch of a single ATACMS is not only more difficult to detect on time, but the weapon is also several times faster than air-launched cruise missiles, meaning that Russian air and missile defenses have significantly less time to respond. This changes the calculus for Moscow, as its major assets could be targeted, causing significant losses that will not be easy to replace, while it may prove difficult to detect and destroy the ATACMS launchers. Once again, it would be impossible for NATO to wage a direct war against Russia in this way, as the VKS would simply send its fighter jets, such as the superfast, high-flying MiG-31BM interceptor or the state-of-the-art Su-35S, both of which carry unrivaled long-range air-to-air missiles (AAM), such as the 400-km-range R-37M, known for its ability to maneuver at hypersonic speed (Mach 6).
Such AAMs would be used to easily destroy any ISR aircraft and other supporting assets hundreds of kilometers around Russian borders. Having the Neo-Nazi junta do all the heavy lifting and dying for “a NATO mission” while the belligerent alliance collects battlefield data is perfect for the political West, but only as long as they can maintain plausible deniability of involvement. However, as Moscow is losing patience for this sort of insolence, the conflict that is still largely limited to Ukraine could inevitably escalate, as Russia can decide to legally redefine what constitutes direct involvement. For the time being, the Russian military might decide to shoot down unmanned SIGINT assets, such as the RQ-4B “Global Hawk”. This was already done once, when a Russian Su-27SM3 masterfully downed a USAF MQ-9 “Reaper” back in March.
What’s more, the political West is close to approving deliveries of such drones as well, specifically the MQ-9 and the medium-range MQ-1C “Grey Eagle”. However, these were designed to fight low-tech enemies, meaning they’re completely useless against opponents like Russia, which shot down over 100 “Bayraktars” by April. And while some ISR drones, such as the RQ-4B are extremely expensive and strategically important, the “Global Hawk” is still just a machine, unlike the RC-135, which is manned by up to 30 crewmen. Still, if the political West decides to continue escalating even in that case, then Moscow will be forced to shoot down all of NATO’s ISR assets, which could potentially lead to a world-ending thermonuclear confrontation. If the belligerent power pole thinks it’s worth risking the fate of the world over this, then so be it, as Moscow has had enough.
why do you think russia will respond when they did not respond to – the west giving target intel to sink the moskva – the west giving target intel to attack russia proper – the west delivering storm shadows, depleted uranium shells and cluster ammo
the truth is they wont. cause they can’t. they have realised the west will not let them end this war so all they can do is try to keep the intensity as low as possible while the west will try to raise the intensity to depleet russia faster.
to answer the ukrainian missile attacks the only thing needed is: never mind whether they use radar or visual detecting of the enemy missiles, the software should and can automatically fix the geo data of the appearence which is the position of the launcher and send them automatically to the russian artillery units. if you want to do more you can let the software meassure the distance from the frontline and on this basis choose the weapon system which should respond.
yes true in part. only thing is you need to realize that they are both in cahoots with each other putin is part of nwo, same as biden, scholz or duda and zelensky. they all interested in slowly escalating the war to ww3 in a plausible way. so that the people (we) believe in their theater as fighting between parties that are really opposed to each other.
simple to answer: russia could answer by locating and destroying the missile systems which fired them and/or by shooting down the missiles.
easier said than done. those are highly mobile.
perhaps best to let the ukrainians know that for every atacms attack, a city block in kiev will be flattened. or the ukrainian parliament.
or the house of the defense minister. we know their addresses. russia has been far too kind so far.
i have said this too. the issue is the shoot and scoot concept. fire and move to new location. russia has gotten lucky though. having a drone in the area at the right time then tracking and hitting with artillery airstrip or drone. it’s been done but is luck. alternatively, hacking into the isr assets might be possible. if done and demonstrate a direct connection to weapon systems in ukraine, that would paint the target craft as legit extensions.
the western bid for global control is in ashes and they are yet to fight china if they are willing to resort to strategic nuclear war it will be found out now or later they have already made a decision. load the nukes and shoot them down.
their is no ‘western’ nor ‘eastern’ bid for global control, just an international evil cabal called international jewry grapping for total world wide control of everything, and they are already very close to their aim, especially because of dumbheads like you, who still can t see it.
let russia destroy nato countries as well
maybe thats the plan : nuclear
‘it’s virtually guaranteed that the kiev regime will get the mgm-140 atacms..’
not if the kiev regime has been terminated long before that point. the longer rus waits to crush these us-puppet nazis the more nato weapons flow in. time to stop playing cat and mouse for the sake of everyone, and just crush z & co.
rus didn’t start this debacle but it must put an end to it!!
poate apare o surpriza din partea ursului. poate da jos ceva… poate se extinde pe alt teren.. poate i se face sete si merge la apa dulce. daca nu aduce ceva nou va suferi
my guess is that these things that provide the ukraine with weapons to prolong it’s misery, exist in an imaginary universe, along with it’s victims, and that someday there will appear a bubble floating in a sea, in that universe that will pop, and that universe along with any memory that was held within it will disappear for all eternity.
down one of their radar planes. not with a missile, but with a drone. fly it into the engine or detonate it into the cockpit.
use a commercial drone with no markings.
plausible deniability. but they will know, and reconsider.
i know you are all worried about the us dipping into their atacms stockpile. 4,000 atacms missiles is definitely not enough for a shooting war and they need to produce more. but it’s not a big deal if they send a few that were produced in the 80s. atacms is slated to be replaced by the pgm starting next year.