Late on January 31, al-Qaeda-affiliated Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) recaptured the al-Sahafyeen residential complex in northwest Aleppo from the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).
The militants launched a large attack on the area in the afternoon and recaptured it following several hours of heavy clashes with the SAA.
In the curse of the attack, HTS carried out a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) attack on army troops in al-Sahafyeen. The group said that the attack was successful, claiming that the attacker returned after parking his booby-trapped vehicle in the targeted area.
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However, several military sources told SouthFront that the SVBIED was damaged by the SAA and later destroyed from a safe distance. No one was injured in the explosion.
HTS and its allies will likely develop their operations in northwest Aleppo after this successful attack. However, the SAA is reportedly preparing to recapture al-Sahafyeen and resume its advance in the region.
Is Assad starting to worry that his decision to attack Aleppo was just a little premature, and is he starting to think perhaps he should’ve stayed in Idlib and just expanded already successful operations there, he should be, this was an idiots endeavour, and only idiots could think this was a good idea. Why has my hero Assad risked Turkish, US, and UN intervention in an all out effort to recover the highway, was it really that important that he couldn’t wait just a few more weeks to do it, wait until he’d recovered all of southern Idlib, northern Hama and Latakia, and only then risk attacking northern Idlib and Aleppo. Northern Idlib and Aleppo are the only places the SAA can be beaten by the Turks, everywhere else we have the advantage, so why did we just decide to meet them on one of the toughest battlegrounds first. Obviously the highways considered to be a very important prize and worth the risk, but I don’t think it is, not if it means losing everything we’ve gained so far in a gamble. If the Turks intervene militarily the US and UN will also become involved, once that happens kiss Aleppo goodbye, it would be Syrian civil war 2.0. We’re on a fools errand up here in Aleppo, if it pays off we were lucky fools, if it doesn’t we were just fools, or worse still the fools who gambled it all and lost it all, that’s also in the cards as a chance bad deal.
We saw how successful they were in Assas. It is not black and white. The Turkish proxies are semi useless. Can Turkey afford a Nuclear War with Russia? Can Turkey afford a war with Syria/Russia? What would body bags coming home From Syria do to Errogant? He can act only so much. Assad is in a position where he can go to Idlib or down the M5. The UN and USA would not do shit unless foreign troops enter onto Turkish Soil. What did the American do after the Iranians shot down an Airliner and told the world that they will destroy the world economy if you attack them? We are not smarter than the Russians. Their strategy is slow and progressive. USA and ISRAEL and Turkey are really the losers here. China the winner. Look and Saudi Arabia and Yemen. North Korea. No. The UN has there hands tied. Try not to forget about Ukraine too.
Assad and Putin are smarter than Trump or Errogant, it is so obvious in there policy. What about Greece and Libya? How far can Turkey push is the question? What will Egypt do? Who is playing who? Turkey is the cause of the refugee crisis in Europe too. I would not worry too much about them, as long as you beat them at their game.
What about the Kurds? Will the Russian airforce help them eventually? Time will tell. Who has the nukes and a better army? Russia or Turkey? Who has the Nat Gas too?
Turkey doesn’t have to go to war to protect its interests in Aleppo, just use it’s long range artillery and rockets/missiles, a 25 km range is all they need to hit the SAA with impunity, and they have that at Aleppo, and all along their border too. The US can call for and enforce a no fly zone at Aleppo very easily, but that’s not the major concern anyway, the UN is, without the UN on his side Assad has no way of ending the Turkish occupation other than by using militarily force, but if he can manage to retain the UN’s help he can starve them out instead, so he has to stay in the UN’s good books for now. Thanks to Russia and China’s diplomatic skills the UN agreed to end all humanitarian support for the opposition groups in Idlib a few months ago, they set a 6 month timeframe for ending all aid deliveries completely, and also as of last month restricted the delivery points to only 2 different locations, exactly what Assad’s been demanding, in return for that the Russians and Syrians opened up those humanitarian corridors [that they knew no one was going to use], LOL. So I don’t think pushing the Turks to a point where they have no choice other than to intervene militarily serves any useful purpose, AT LEAST NOT JUST YET ANYWAY. We need to slow it down at Aleppo and speed it up in Hama and Idlib, take back as much of the country as we can before the poo hits the fan, because when the Turks do eventually intervene things will slow down to a snails pace, and I’d prefer them to slow down after we have 90% of the occupied territory back in our hands, not when we only have 35% of it. If the 4th division stay where they are now and don’t head further north or east, just south, things will be ok, but if they start fighting in Aleppo and try to head west, the Russians will end up in the crossfire, and I can tell you right now the Russians won’t be happy about that, they’ll be right in the middle of the warring parties and coping it from both sides, and I’ll bet you right now that won’t ever happen with Putin’s permission.
And Russia may be in charge of what’s happening in Idlib but Iran’s calling the shots in Aleppo, don’t be confused and think the SAA’s one big happy army, most of the time the left hand doesn’t know what the right one’s doing, and that’s on a good day, so far they seem to be on the same page but as to how long that lasts who knows, tomorrow may be a different story.
The ALF have been escalating hostilities since january last year, in all that time the Russians haven’t intervened once to protect themselves or the Kurdish population from Turkish artillery retaliation, but in saying that they also haven’t done a thing to stop the ALF attacking the Turks either, so I’m unsure whether or not they’ll protect the ALF when the real fighting starts, probably not if Turkish regular forces are involved, but if it’s just proxies they might, and there’s a lot of Erdogan’s refugees living there too now, so that’ll also be a consideration for the Russians and their support for the ALF. The ALF don’t mind risking pro Turkish civilian lives but the Russian’s don’t have that luxury.
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The US cannot enforce a no fly zone in Aleppo. The Turks cannot fly their too. Russian missiles are capable of hitting them. The Turks made a deal in Astana, and now they must keep it. hahahahah Artillery. Bombing a city is not smart. Nothing gained. Invasion would not be smart either. Where will Turkey get all this money to pay for it. What about Iran, does Turkey want to get into it with them? The Turks are full of hot air. A game of Cat and mouse. At some point, the cards must be played. No more bluffing. The M5 will eventually become Syrian. How long? The time is right. How far should they push it is the question? Turkey needs Russia, and Russia needs Turkey. Both parties know this. I think you’re being too cautious, there comes a point where you gotta fight. All those Turkish check points that are under Syrian control contain potential hostages now. Those check points are a bad thing for Turkey now. 3 under Syrian control. I guess we shall see. Will Assad get the M5 in the near future. No. The Turks will stop this. And than it starts back over again. Idlib is not that far away, so Assad can go in many directions now. M4 is close too. How many check point can the Turks create.
Though the Patriots are vastly inferior to the S-400’s they still have a 20km range, and US aircraft based in Turkey can also hit targets over and in Aleppo from the Turkish side of the border, if they really want a no fly zone they’ll enforce one, so make no mistake it’s a genuine threat to the smooth sailing we’ve experienced up until now, and it’s a real possibility we just can’t afford to ignore.
“The Turks made a deal in Astana, and now they must keep it.”
LOL, the Turks have made 15 different agreements in Astana and they haven’t abided by even one of them, NOT ONE, LOL, keep dreaming.
“The Turks are full of hot air. A game of Cat and mouse. At some point, the cards must be played. No more bluffing.”
Of all the players in Syria Erdogan stands out as the one least likely to be bluffing, even when directly confronting the US and Russia he’s nearly always stood his ground doing what he said he would, so let’s make a list of all the times EVERYONE thought he was bluffing but he wasn’t, operation Olive Branch, operation Euphrates Shield, and operation peace spring, and that’s just in Syria, but he’s also got 7 successive and successful campaigns in Iraq that no one thought he’d go through but did, in fact the only time his bluff has been called over the last 2 years was when he just recently tried to blackmail NATO. That was the only time over the last 2 years I’ve seen Erdogan’s bluff called, and by God didn’t they call it, LOL.
“Turkey has rejected claims it is blackmailing Nato by blocking a military plan for the Baltics and Poland unless it receives support for its effort to defeat Syrian Kurd forces on its borders. The Turkish government made the claims ahead of what may prove to be a bruising meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and major European powers in Downing Street on Tuesday afternoon. Turkey claimed it had full veto rights for any proposal within Nato. “If our friends at Nato do not recognise as terrorist organisations those we consider terrorist organisations … we will stand against any step that will be taken there,” Erdoğan said before travelling to London. “Nato is an institution where Turkey has full veto rights, politically and militarily, and there are procedures here,” Turkish government officials said. “There is no such thing as Turkey blackmailing – a statement like that is unacceptable.” Erdoğan has blocked a defence plan for Poland and the Baltic states until Nato recognises that the Syrian Kurdish YPG are a terrorist threat that must be addressed. Ahead of his departure from Ankara, Erdoğan reiterated the Turkish position, telling reporters: “If our friends at Nato do not recognise as terrorist organisations those we consider terrorist organisations … we will stand against any step that will be taken there.”
That was the one and only time Erdogan’s bluff was called that I can remember.
Syria imports a considerable amount of goods that come in by truck from Turkey. HTS makes a considerable amount of their operating revenue from the highway access fees paid by the truckers. The bulk of those goods come down the M5 so by taking the highway, the HTS loses a badly needed source of daily cash income.
True and I’m not saying taking back the highway in itself is a bad thing, but if it means the Turks have an excuse to intervene militarily it’ll be catastrophic, that’s a mighty big gamble to take, especially when at the most it’d only take a couple of weeks or even less to secure all of south Idlib and most of Hama, and then we could take back the highway safer easier and faster. It’s like a game of snakes and ladders, atm we’re right at the end game point with just a few more moves to home, but we still have one tile to cross that can take us all the way back to the start of the game, we want to avoid that tile for as long as we can, set ourselves up so well that when we do have to cross that tile and possibly hit it, we’ll only be starting off from Aleppo again, not Idlib.