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Written by Piero Messina
In Europe everything has changed so that nothing changes. Those who hoped that the European vote would be able to change the posture of Old Europe regarding the Ukraine/Russia dossier can put their hearts at rest. Nothing will change. The elections for the European Parliament went exactly as “The Economist” had predicted, ten days before the vote. The sovereign right wins but does not win overwhelmingly. The bible of financial globalism titled the edition of last May 30th: “The three women who will shape Europe”. A clear reference to the President of the EU Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, to the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and to the leader of the French sovereign right, Marina Le Pen.
In reality, there are and will be five women in charge in Europe in the next legislature which opens in mid-July. The pink power of European politics must take into account Roberta Metsola, president of the Brussels parliament who is aiming for reconfirmation and Kaja Kallas, the Estonian prime minister who aspires to become the EU High Representative for foreign policy. Kallas is one of the staunchest supporters of pro-Ukraine and anti-Russia issues in Europe.
It was the Economist itself that dictated the political agenda of where Europe should go. The turbo-capitalist magazine owned by the Rothschild and Elkann families reminds the European elite that “In a dangerous world, comfortable old Europe finds itself in an alarming position. The bloodiest war on the continent since 1945 rages in Ukraine, while Russia poses a threat to cyberspace, from the Baltics. If Donald Trump returns to the White House, he could undermine NATO, the foundation of European security. The continent’s economy is vulnerable to shocks caused by industrial policy and protectionism elsewhere. Eurosceptic populists are gaining ground in the polls.”
To face these dangers, Europe needs – the Economist sermon continues – “coherent leadership at a European level. It must also keep extremists out of power. The success depends in part on the choices of three women: Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, Giorgia Meloni, Italian prime minister, and Marine Le Pen, the leading French populist.”
Who knows why, in the editorial of the British weekly there was no mention whatsoever of French President Emmanuel Macron and German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz? In the London editorial team they will certainly have a precise and functional crystal ball to predict the future.
Let’s try to understand the data and what the future balance of the European Parliament will be. Throughout Europe the right and far right are advancing heavily, so much so as to cause political earthquakes in many countries. In France, President Emmanuel Macron is sending the country to early elections. A desperate move. In Germany the extreme right of Alternative für Deutschland (Afd) overtakes the Socialist Party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. In Germany, according to the first projections, the majority of seats went to the European People’s Party, but in second place was the extreme right of Alternative für Deutschland (Afd), which overtook the Socialist Party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Same right wind in Greece. In France, the success of the projections in the European elections of Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement national pushed President Emmanuel Macron to immediately dissolve the National Assembly (the French parliament) and call new consultations, which will take place in two rounds, on 30 June and July 7, to form a new government. Belgium’s Prime Minister Alexander De Croo has also decided to resign after his party, the Liberals, according to initial projections, achieved a disappointing result in the European elections.
The new European Parliament will therefore be moved further to the right, but not by much compared to the current structure, which should not put the classic government alliance between popular, socialists and liberals at risk. In Brussels there are those who are even convinced that the games on the famous “top jobs”, i.e. the four main EU positions, are already over, with Ursula von der Leyen on her way to reconfirmation as the most prestigious position, that of President of the Commission . But what blows things up is what is happening in the varied universe of the European right, in particular in France and Italy. And here the will of the five women who could shape the near future of Europe come into play.
The first is the aforementioned von der Leyen. The “Queen of the Berlaymont”, (the building which houses the EU executive), seems to have emerged strengthened from the European elections. His party, the EPP, not only triumphed at the polls, but also strengthened its position as kingmaker in Strasbourg. In the European Parliament, the People’s Party have the numbers to be able to deal the cards, choosing from time to time whether to leverage the formal alliance with socialists and liberals (and perhaps greens), or whether to team up with backroom agreements with the right, in in particular with the ECR of the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, as has already happened in recent years. A Eurochamber with variable majorities was the project of Manfred Weber, the German politician who leads the EPP, and the European vote seems to have put all the pieces in place for him, including the weakening of the weight of French President Emmanuel Macron.
Precisely the troubles of Macron, dealing with early elections in the hot weeks in which the top jobs could be decided, could pave the way for von der Leyen: the Transalpine leader had shown reservations about the hypothesis of a second mandate for the German, and ran rumor that his candidate for the leadership of the Commission was Mario Draghi. The collapse of consensus at the European elections, however, does not seem to give him space for his well-known behind-the-scenes political games, such as those which in 2019 led to the election of von der Leyen (to the detriment of Weber, designated by the EPP).
If Von Der Leyen remains the “queen of the Berlaymont”, the framework of the other important positions in the EU could easily be put together by the end of the month. The current president of Parliament Roberta Metsola, also from the EPP, should be reconfirmed. The liberals could obtain the nomination of the EU High Representative for foreign policy, with the Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, among the greatest supporters of Ukraine. To close the puzzle, the socialist position, that of the president of the European Council, which would go to the Portuguese Antonio Costa.
This scheme, they say in Brussels, could favor rapid negotiations between political forces and EU governments, and avoid long negotiations and tensions within the bloc at a time when Europe needs unity in the face of the war in Ukraine and the risk of find Donald Trump at the helm of the USA in a few months. But the European right is in turmoil, and wants to have its weight in the architecture of EU power. This is why all eyes are on Giorgia Meloni and Marine Le Pen. The Italian leader has the fact of being prime minister on her side, and therefore of having a vote to spend on the table that counts most for deciding the top jobs, that of the European Council. Le Pen wants to exploit the electoral success in the European elections, the possible encore in the early vote in France, and the good relations with Meloni (but also with the Dutchman Geert Wilders) to influence the games in Brussels.
Nothing will change, therefore, about the anti-humanist and warmongering strategies of the European Union. In foreign policy, Brussels remains a faithful vassal of the Atlantic Alliance, at an extremely delicate moment in the relationship with Russia. On the internal political level, the new unchanged political structure will continue to pursue those policies that are demolishing the agriculture sector and are activating increasingly invasive social digitalisation paths. The votes of European citizens, as always, count for little or nothing.
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