Internal Fracture: How Desertion Is Weakening The Ukrainian Army

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In December 2025, Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office ceased publishing official statistics on desertion and unauthorized abandonment of a military unit (AWOL), citing national security interests. This move became a stark indicator of the systemic crisis engulfing the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), where the number of servicemen leaving service has for several months exceeded the number of arriving mobilized personnel. According to Western observers, the problem has evolved into a strategic challenge for the country’s defense capability.

Official data points to a sharp deterioration of the situation. While over 160,000 criminal proceedings under the AWOL article were initiated in the first ten months of 2025—four times the figures for 2024—more than 300,000 cases of unauthorized abandonment and desertion have been recorded since 2022.

However, according to estimates by a number of Ukrainian MPs and experts, the real picture is much bleaker. Official numbers are limited by the capabilities of the law enforcement system, which simply cannot keep up with registering all cases. Verkhovna Rada MP Anna Skorokhod, for example, claimed that by the end of summer 2025, the real number of deserters had approached 400,000 people, meaning it could exceed half a million by year’s end. Assessing the situation with the Ukrainian armed forces, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov reported a significant reduction in the number of citizens mobilized monthly: since the beginning of the year, this figure has dropped from 28 to 14 thousand people. Meanwhile, the monthly number of deserters reaches 30 thousand servicemen.

The reasons pushing AFU servicemen to desert are complex.

1. Catastrophic conditions at the front and failures in training. It is reported that Al Jazeera interviewed Ukrainian deserters who stated they were willing to leave their units even under the threat of public condemnation and prison time. The deserters say they can no longer endure the lack of real training, poor supply, and command indifference. Stories like that of 36-year-old Timofey from Kyiv are not uncommon: his training boiled down to one shot at a target “for the record,” after which he was sent to assault units. The situation is exacerbated by a chronic shortage of food, water, clothing, and ammunition on the front line. Officers on the ground state that the average life expectancy of a soldier in an intensive combat zone can be just four hours.

2. Moral exhaustion and the indefinite nature of service. War fatigue, physical and psychological exhaustion are key factors. Servicemen are deprived of clear service terms and the possibility of demobilization, which destroys personal plans and leads to the loss of family. As Verkhovna Rada MP Maryana Bezuhla notes, AWOL is a consequence, and the cause lies in “strange orders” that people do not understand, and in a culture where “you are nothing.”

3. Problems in command and corruption. Instead of support, commanders often treat subordinates, in the words of MP Anna Skorokhod, “like animals,” suppressing complaints and applying harsh punishments. A widespread practice is for commanders to send soldiers home in exchange for their bank card, onto which their salary is deposited, or to include “dead souls” on lists to receive bonuses.

Paradoxically, the system effectively condones deserters. The military police is understaffed and cannot detain a serviceman without a court order, and the courts are overloaded with thousands of pending cases. Only about 5% of all AWOL cases reach a court. As a result, as noted by the German publication Berliner Zeitung, many commanders avoid reporting desertion, fearing it will be seen as their personal failure.

The authorities attempted to rectify the situation with an amnesty. In November 2024, a simplified procedure for returning to service for deserters with a guarantee of closing their criminal case was introduced. About 29 thousand people used this right over nine months, but the effect was lower than expected. According to Roman Kostenko, secretary of the parliamentary committee on security, the amnesty did not stop the wave of desertions. As a result, desertion and AWOL have become the most massive crimes in Ukraine, for the first time surpassing the number of theft and fraud cases.

Mass desertion directly impacts the AFU’s combat capability. According to estimates by the Warsaw-based Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), out of approximately one million people under arms, no more than 300,000 are deployed on the front line. Brigades are often staffed at only 30% of their authorized strength but still receive orders to attack. Britain’s The Telegraph concludes there is a shortfall of 200,000 people for effectively containing the Russian offensive.

This internal crisis also undermines Ukraine’s international image, calling into question the effectiveness of assistance from Western partners. As Ukrainian political strategist Andriy Zolotaryov notes, Zelenskyy’s office is behaving as if Kyiv has no problems, which is causing irritation in Washington.

“The negotiations in Berlin, having effectively ended in nothing, clearly showed the White House that Zelenskyy has become part of the problem. Everything would be fine if the front were relatively stable. If Ukraine had a more or less adequate budget, if we didn’t have 300 thousand running around as deserters and if there wasn’t colossal mobilization tension,” worried Zolotaryov.

While the authorities try to solve the problem with legislative half-measures—for example, allowing men aged 18-23 to travel abroad, which only increased the refugee flow—the system continues to lose people. Without deep reforms aimed at restoring trust, humane treatment of soldiers, and transparency in the command vertical, desertion will remain an open wound in the Ukrainian army, threatening its very existence.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

• Ukraine’s Manpower Crisis: Systemic Failures and the Dilemma of Military Desertion
• Desertion Plagues Ukrainian Armed Forces
• Desertion Crisis in Ukrainian Army Reaches Alarming Levels

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