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Domestic policy problems in Europe and in the US threatens their foreign policies goals.
Written by Uriel Araujo, researcher with a focus on international and ethnic conflicts
On October 26, the White House declared it sees no prospects for negotiations to put an end to the conflict in Ukraine. It would thus appear the US remains intent on supporting Kiev’s efforts until military victory is achieved. This is no simple task, though. For one thing, both the coming European winter and the American coming midterm elections in November have thrown cold water on the international pro-Ukraine coalition.
US President Joe Biden has made maintaining a global coalition against Russia the main mission of his presidency, but he already faces diplomatic difficulties with the broader global arena: for one thing, Washington wants a Russian-Indian breakthrough which is not going to happen. Moreover, developing countries in South America, South Asia, and Africa have been hurt the most by the global food crisis and the rising fuel prices – and they quite correctly blame Western sanctions. Therefore, the United States’ main allies and partners have been Western European NATO countries. However, there are fissures in this transatlantic alliance, largely driven by domestic problems.
A Pew Research Center poll conducted last month shows that the share of US citizens concerned with a Ukrainian defeat fell from 55% in May to 38% in September. The general public has other concerns, as many Americans believe Washington is giving too much support for Kiev. Amid their representatives, the bipartisan support for the causeis drying out too. To make matters worse, from a White House perspective, the Zelenski-Biden relationship is not smooth, as the former keeps demanding more and more weapons. For Biden, keeping asking Congress for more money while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sounds “ungrateful” is increasingly becoming a challenge, according to Politico.
On October 25, amid intense political backlash within their own party, a group of about 30 Liberal House Democrats retracted a letter they had issued the day before urging US President Biden to pursue direct diplomatic talks with Russia over a cease-fire. In any case, although they backed off, the move was a sign of fatigue after eight months of a conflict that has been, on the Ukrainian side, largely financed by the US taxpayers. On the Republican side and on the political right, California Representative Kevin McCarthy has aligned with such voices as former President Donald Trump and Fox News host Tucker Carlson in opposition to Washington’s current policy.
On the Atlantic Ocean’s other side, key states such as France, Germany and Italy have shown signs that their leaders doubt the possibility of a victory against Russia. In fact, one could even say Europe has been quietly abandoning Kiev since at least August, when for the first time no new military pledges to support the country were made by the six largest EU nations. In late September it was reported both European NATO and the US were running out of weapons to send to their eastern ally. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg even held a special meeting to discuss ways to refill the Alliance’s members weapons stockpiles, urging them to reinvest in their industrial bases.
According to German foreign policy analyst Ulrich Speck, the West has been providing Ukraine with “just enough” weapons “to survive, not enough to regain territory”. He adds that the idea seems to be “that Russia should not win, but also not lose.” How long such a protracted conflict can go on is unclear.
This week, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met in Paris to talk about their differences over a French-backed EU cap on natural gas prices which Berlin opposes. Energy prices and the economy are the main topic in Europe and also the UK today.
While the EU struggles with its own economic and energy crisis, and conflict-induced inflation (with all the social consequences of it), the bloc’s support for Ukraine shows itself to be increasingly dependent on the Americans. “Encircling” Russia has always been first and foremost a US goal anyway (not to mention its energy interests) – and this American strategy is largely to blame for the current crisis itself. In any case, facing domestic problems, Republicans in Washington have threatened to block further aid to Kiev – and they might end up controlling Congress after midterm elections in November. Trump’s return to office is not an unrealistic scenario, and if the US reduces, suspends or interrupts its military and intelligence support, European states could hardly compensate for it. The truth is that since World War II, the continent has largely depended on the United States of America for its security matters.
In fact, Hungarian journalist Eszter Zalan who specializes in European policies, writes that it is hard to tell whether European’s support for this cause can survive the winter, as both depression and the danger of social unrest haunt the continent. Hungarian Prime Minister Orban Viktor summarized the matter thusly: “The energy sanctions were imposed by Brussels on the member states, and since then energy prices have skyrocketed. When this happened, Brussels promised to end the war and hurt the aggressor more than the member states of the EU. Instead, today all citizens of Europe pay a punitive surcharge for energy.”
A number of experts, including Global Public Policy Institute’s Niklas Balbon, Centre for European Reform’s Ian Bond, European Council on Foreign Relations’s Ulrike Franke, and former US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst have voiced their concerns on the viability of European support for Kiev, should Washington’s own support weaken.
According to John O’Brennam a Maynooth University professor of European Integration, support for Ukraine, be it financial or military, has been mostly led by the United States. Eric S. Edelman, former US under secretary of defense, in turn, notes that although “public support remains quite strong” (in his view), one should “never underestimate the challenges of coalition maintenance and alliance management.”
To sum it up, serious domestic problems both in the US and in Europe’s main countries have the potential to hamper this transatlantic alliance’s foreign policy goals in Ukraine, as the hard reality of winter, recession risks and elections comes knocking the door.
Rep. Ro Khanna was one of those who did not back off from their support of the letter. Another, Rep. Thomas Massie ridiculed those who withdrew their support for the letter implying them as cowards.
I agree with the writer of this excellent article. There is absolutely no doubt, that the public support for the Nazi junta of Kiev is sinking from day to day both in the US and in the EU. At last, people are understanding the real nature of the Fascists.
Until Ukraine is obliterated, there will be no chance for peace and prosperity in this region.
Those with nazy delusion, just like jihadists, must be exterminated.
As a person who lives in the West, i still have no idea why our leaders had to become such a US puppet and for what? at what cost? the inflation and recession is all due to supporting this brutal war-business the US been running since 2001.
Yes, but the kikejoo’s of the JUSA cabal who own in reality the course of the United States politic will do everything to continue harass Russia because they know it’s a matter of life and death. If they don’t succeed in nazi Ukropizdan the entire 200 years of fake jews USA cabal history will go to the trash bin. Theirs instrument on which they enslaved the world, the fiat toilet paper money called dollar will be defeated and the new emergent system will made it a second hand currency flushing to the shithole the entire kikejoo finance-banking fake sector. The ongoing events are in Russia favor but they must be patient and resilient because the ‘beast is raging, knowing he don’t have any time anymore’.
I can’t believe 9 Morons down-voted your sensible statements.
There are many sick religious practitioners here at SF. It is the explanation for abnormal events.
America needs to understand, if they got no oil to offer, what good are you? The fact is, the world runs on oil, and if you want to remain relevant, you better have it. America is washed up and running on fumes and the world knows it.
The reason they the USA and eu are getting away with it is they have been brainwashing the public No alternative view of Ukraine is mentioned Zelensky is portrayed as an angel same with azov kraken what happened in Odessa 2014 and all the other atrocities committed on their own east ukranian civilians because they refuse to accept the usa led coup Now it is full throttle demonising everything russian and the people of these countries are falling for it When the Europeans went crazy about anti semitism the targeting of one group of people Russia is now being given the same treatment as if they are non human Like all wars where is the balance Iraq war no sanctions on usa Palestine no sanctions on israel Serbia no sanctions on usa Syria Yemen the list goes on and on Russia tried to protect the lives in the east of Ukraine as were getting bombed and killed by their own army for 8 years because they refused to accept the overthrow of their government Now Ukraine wants the land and people back Why would they vote to stay with somebody who has been trying to wipe them out for 8 years this idea is absurd What do the Americans who are running the Ukraine freak show expect is going to happen to these people if Ukraine is given back the donbass They will all be murdered
The americans don’t care at all what happens to the people of Donbass. They don’t even really care if the Donbass returns to Ukraine or not. Their plan – that of monsters like the Nuland and the Clinton – is to encircle and weaken Russia. If possible to get Putin thrown out; to avoid at all costs any relations between Europe and Russia, and to sell their gas to Europe. Personally I think they are dreaming, but time will tell……….
Correct assesment! My only ad on would be that ‘given back’ in your last sentence is not even an option to be considered. The people of the Donbass made they own independant decision, like the Crimeans to disengage from the illegal and oppressive ‘government’ of Ukraine, that has been murdering the people of Donbass for the last 8 years as you point out, and asked for the support and protection of the Russian Federation. End of discussion.
I can’t help but feel that Russia has major aces up her sleeves that she has revealed to no one and I don’t mean economic. I love my country and her people but so many have turned their backs on our Triune God that if the JewS government tries to drop an atomic bomb on Russia, the US is finished. The only nation to be broken up is my beloved US and her people basically destroyed.
The people that got the covaid$ death squirt caper…get the rump Ukrap caper as well. So those clowns that imagine rump Ukrapland is somehow going to be “saved” by the evil EUSSR and JUSSA are already dying, thank goodness. As the poison kicks in in the next few years the human family is going so be burying a lot of mindless sheeple that never “get” anything other than the slop and glob that is pumped into their troughs in their “living rooms”.