Click to see full-size image
On May 18th, 2019, almost a year and a half ago, the United States announced its unilateral decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal.
In July 2015, an agreement was concluded with Iran, China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union. It provided that Iran’s nuclear activities would be limited in exchange for reduced sanctions.
On May 8th, 2018, US President Donald Trump made a speech at the White House saying that “the heart of the Iran deal was a giant fiction: that a murderous regime desired only a peaceful nuclear energy program.” Trump added that there was “definitive proof that this Iranian promise was a lie. Last week, Israel published intelligence documents — long concealed by Iran — conclusively showing the Iranian regime and its history of pursuing nuclear weapons.”
The International Atomic Energy Agency, the agency tasked with verifying and monitoring Iran’s compliance with the JCPOA, also said that the Islamic Republic has been in compliance with the JCPOA and there is no evidence otherwise.
In response, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said he is “deeply concerned by the announcement that the United States will be withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and will begin reinstating US sanctions.”
A Declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the EU said that Federica Mogherini “deeply regrets the announcement by US President Trump to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action”.
Even though the European Council on Foreign Relations does not does not take collective positions, several of its Council Members signed a European Joint Call on the US to “reconsider its approach to the JCPOA.”
The EU, almost a year and a half later, still maintains that it supports the JCPOA and that it must be kept intact.
Iran, on its part, said that reinstating sanctions against it wouldn’t work and that it would continue following up on the deal, while the other signatories filled the gap left by the US withdrawal.
That has increasingly proven to be more complicated than initially anticipated and since July 2019 the Islamic Republic said it was reducing some voluntary commitments of the Nuclear Deal that it only complied with out of good will.
On the one-year anniversary of the US withdrawal, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that due to the failure of the remaining signatories to the deal, the Islamic Republic would begin reducing commitment to the deal. All of this would take place within the regulations set out in the deal.
Iran gave a 60-day deadline, which result in more or less nothing. The EU once again vowed that it would pick up the slack, Russia and China said they would also assist, but it was too little too late.
When the deadline passed, on July 1st, Iran announced that it had increased its stockpile of enriched uranium to beyond the 300-kilogram limit set by the agreement.
This marked the first step of reducing commitment. The reduction would happen in three steps.
On July 8th, the Islamic republic announced it had exceeded the deal’s uranium enrichment level of 3.67%.
On September 7th, the details of the third step were announced by the spokesperson of Iran’s nuclear energy organization Behrouz Kamalvandi, which included the activation of 20 IR-4 and 20 IR-6 centrifuges.
“Four measures were adopted today; one of them was related to the paragraph 39 [of the nuclear deal] and the centrifuge machines. The centrifuges increase our stockpile [of enriched uranium] in addition to helping the R&D activities,” Behrouz Kamalvandi told reporters.
In a letter to the EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini on September 5th, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Iran will begin unlimited nuclear research and development work from the next day.
Zarif’s letter came after Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that the country will expand its nuclear research and development as of September 6, setting aside the restrictions imposed on the country’s research and development (R&D) in the JCPOA.
“We took the first step in reducing our commitments, and gave the P4+1 a two-month deadline. Then we went ahead with the second phase, giving them another two-month deadline. In the four-month period, we held negotiations with the G4+1, including the European Union and the three European countries in particular,” Rouhani said.
The blame, according to Iran falls entirely on the US aggressive actions, and the inability of the UK, France and Germany to undertake any effective action to curb the pressure.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that Iran’s actions were “unacceptable.”
In an attempt to calm Iran, France proposed offering Iran about $15 billion in credit lines until year-end if Tehran comes fully back into compliance with the deal.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said talks on the credit arrangement, which would be guaranteed by Iranian oil revenues, were continuing, but approval from the United States would be crucial.
The idea is “to exchange a credit line guaranteed by oil in return for, one, a return to the JCPOA … and two, security in the Persian Gulf and the opening of negotiations on regional security and a post-2025 (nuclear program),” Le Drian told reporters.
The idea, which was reportedly also proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron at the G7 Summit was vehemently denied by the US.
Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that Tehran would return to its commitments under the deal only if it got $15 bn for oil sales over four months.
“Our return to the full implementation of the nuclear accord is subject to the receipt of $15 bn over a four-month period, otherwise the process of reducing Iran’s commitments will continue,” Araqchi said.
If nothing changes, AEOI spokesperson Behrouz Kamalvandi said that four other measures, including launching the middle-cascade of IR2m which was due to be done in 2026 and injecting gas into a 10-set cascade of IR5s centrifuges, are still remaining which will be done within almost two months.
MORE ON THE TOPIC:
War drums are getting louder. Now let’s see who blinks first