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Tehran miscalculated the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War
Written by Paul Antonopoulos, independent geopolitical analyst
Since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, tensions between Iran and the emerging Turkey-Azerbaijan-Pakistan Axis have significantly escalated. It is now glaringly obvious that Iran grossly miscalculated the new reality that would emerge with Azerbaijan capturing Armenian-held territories in the South Caucasus.
A major motivating factor of Azerbaijan’s insistence on controlling Nagorno-Karabakh is the Greater Pan-Turkic project, where Turkey sees itself as the domineering center of a sphere of influence stretching from Istanbul to Western China. Rather than dealing with this project, which supports Turkic separatist ideals in Iran, Tehran decided on pan-Islamic optics and continually congratulated and praised Azerbaijan’s capture of historically-demographically-culturally Armenian territories.
In the first week of the war, three representatives of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a joint statement saying: “There is no doubt that Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan and its government’s move to recapture the region is completely legal, according to Shari’a, and in line with four Resolutions of the United Nation’s Security Council.” In the final days of the war, Khamenei said in a television broadcast that “all Azerbaijani territories occupied by Armenia should be freed. All these lands should be given back to Azerbaijan.”
Despite Iran’s consistent moral support for Azerbaijan’s war effort, it became clear that there was naivety about the latter’s regional ambitions. Iran was never a part of the new regional reconfiguration that Turkey and Azerbaijan were trying to establish. In fact, it is becoming more evident that Turkey and Azerbaijan have intentions of weaponizing, as part of their pan-Turkic project, the approximate 15-18 million Azeris living in Iran – that is more than the entire population of Azerbaijan.
On December 10, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recited a poem in Baku during a victory parade celebrating the Azerbaijani victory in Nagorno-Karabakh. The poem, a symbol of pan-Turkism, laments how the Azeri people are divided between Azerbaijan and Iran’s Azeri-majority northwest.
Even with this provocation, Iran was eager to quickly move on, yet again refusing to acknowledge the shifts in power and influence occurring in the South Caucasus. In August 2021, Azerbaijani soldiers began mistreating Iranian truck drivers along the Goris-Kapan Highway which links Iran to Armenia through the newly Azerbaijani-administered Nagorno-Karabakh region. Once again though, Tehran quickly sidestepped the issue and accepted Azerbaijan’s explanations for harassing their truck drivers.
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Iran’s realization that it had grossly miscalculated its policy towards Nagorno-Karabakh finally came when Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan held joint military exercises. It is worth noting that Pakistan is on Iran’s eastern border whilst Turkey and Azerbaijan are on its northwest and northern border respectively. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh questioned the legality of the exercises, highlighting that according to the Caspian Sea’s legal conventions, the military presence of non-littoral states in this sea is illegal.
However, Iran encouraged Azerbaijan’s violation of OSCE Minsk Group (Russia, the United States and France) objectives and United Nations resolutions on resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute without violence. By doing so, Iran put itself in a difficult position where on the one hand it was encouraging Azerbaijani violations of international law, but is now complaining that the very same country is violating agreements that directly affect Iran’s own security.
Tensions have now reached unprecedented heights, with a war of words occurring between lawmakers from the two countries, and major Iranian military exercises being conducted along large stretches of the Iran-Azerbaijan border.
According to Tehran Times, one Azerbaijani lawmaker claimed that Pakistan’s army would invade Tehran if it made any hostile move against Baku. Another lawmaker threatened to cut Iran’s tail. Fada-Hossein Maleki, a leading member of the Iranian parliament sitting on the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said: “The drills carried out by the governments of Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Turkey are worrying,” adding that Iran is closely following the situation along the Iran-Azerbaijan border. Mohammad Reza Ahmadi Sangari, another Iranian lawmaker, tweeted that the leaders of Baku have been “illusioned” by their victory in Nagorno-Karabakh which was achieved by “Turkish doping.”
Middle East specialist Mikhail Magid believes that the alliance between Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan is directed against Iran, India and Russia, as they are among their biggest challengers to their goals in Afghanistan, Central Asia and the Middle East.
Again, the interest in these regions is motivated by Ankara’s pan-Turkic project to become the dominant power and influence in Central Asia. With foreign policy pursuits being guided by identity politics, it is impossible for Turkey and Azerbaijan to reconcile with Iran as it is not only home to millions of native Turkic-speakers, but it is also a land bridge that connects the Turkic-speaking Anatolia and Caucasus from the ethnically Turkic Central Asia.
It is for this reason that Turkey has also pinned a lot of trust and cooperation with Pakistan, a country with no founding story other than being established as a country for South Asia’s Muslims. To create a national identity, separate from their Indian origins, Pakistani intellectuals have been engaging in historical revisionism, claiming that today’s Pakistanis are the descendants of Turkic warlords and Mughals who conquered northern India over the past 1,000 years.
It is through identity politics that Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan are consolidating and strengthening their relations, something that become emboldened following the success of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War to more closely interconnect the Turkic World. For Iran, this poses as a major threat to its own sovereignty and domestic stability, something that will surely be weaponized by Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan as they aim to muscle out regional competitors, including India and Russia, in their pursuit to shape the region according to their own image and interests.
Yet again, one can’t help but think how the regional situation would be different today if Iran opted to view the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War through the optics of realism rather than Political Islam.
Azheri shia are fedup of Turkey and dictoator Alivey. Azeri shia feel betryal bcuz Whabhi slut get more benifit in Azerbaijan then Shia majority. If this Dictator Erdogon/Alivey zionist slave think they can harasss shia and iran in th region with thier Whabhi slut in the border. they will pay heavily. Shia in Azerbaijan are waiting for opportunity. bcuz shia soldier and commander within Azerbaijan felt betrayal during kabarakh war when turkey command took over and replace shia commander with Whabhi Terriost commander. Alivey shoould not do silly mistake .
Emotions, dreams, delicious, hallucinations, come down to reality,
Iran will most likely start funding the Shias and creating another part to their Axis of Resistance
Iran has tried but failed. The Azerbaijani shia state have never had good relations with Tehran – Go figure. Anyhow, Erdodog is not to be trusted. The axis of resistance remains intact and remains a potent force that existentially threatens Israel. The Pakis and Taliban must join the axis or be left to the NATO dogs and India
“when turkey command took over and replace shia commander with Whabhi Terriost commander” – Thats WHY they won LoL
OK!
Any absurd ideas against Iran would involve Russia, China etc. Pakistan would lose all support from China. The turks are paid to limit and distract the Iranians.
They always try to play both sides, except their absurd actions are extremely transparent.
They should not. I makes more sense to know the Ayatollah shave his behind or not.
Jens you danish patato! Go stave y mothers pussy
If you look at Aliyev and Erdogan closely, you can notice they were sh*t out of the same camel’s a**!!!
Pure emotions, no thinking,no logic,no frontal lobe,
Good article but writer is omitting the facty that not only Iran but Russia/Putin too did the same miscalculation about Nagorno-Karabak war, the area is (part of) Russian soft belly,
A long used western excuse for claimed Russian “weakness”. How did the georgians do against the “soft belly”? Chechnya? The Ukraine?
History speaks for itself.
Georgians and Chechens are with the Turks. I hope Germany does something in Ukraine and move Ukrainians away from the Turks.
Russia keeps on betraying her Christian Brothers from Armenia while busy selling weapons to Turkish headchoppers Its a pity t
Business come first. Fire ass
It’s false to claim Iran made a mistake or miscalculation because Russia’s reaction to the conflict was the same as Iran. The author fails to discuss why Russia also did not react meaningfully to the conflict since the author also correctly admits that the alliance is also targetting Russia. I’m a nobody but even I knew the Zionists were preparing a joint Turkey/Balu/Pakistan alliance against Iran years ago. It was very obvious because you could see their propaganda all over Zionist controlled social media. Zionist trolls were literally taunting Iranians openly online years ago saying they were preparing Pakistan and Baku against us. They even made videos and animations depicting Pakistan Turkey Baku jointly invading Iran.
This project is nothing new. It is the same old Anglo-Zionist foreign policy. It was invented by Zionists and the British back when they controlled the dying Ottoman empire through their Young Turk agents. They are now attempting to spread it to new places like Ukraine, Pakistan, Hungary, Finland, and even the Koreas. Their delusional goal is to create a wall of fake Mongol wanna be people made up of every race, language, and culture known to man surrounding the three Asian powers of Russia/China/Iran. It’s the same concept as ISIS, brainwash and radicalize a bunch of low IQ uneducated people with a genocidal and terrorist ideology then unleash them on your geopolitical enemies. Pakistan itself is another British invention and has always been used by NATO like a whore. Before they were the slaves of NATO puppet Saudi Arabia but now that Saudi has decided to move away from Islam, NATO has switched Pakistan’s masters to the Mongol wanna bes in Anatolia.
The reason Iran at least verbally showed support to the fake republic of Azerbaijan was because Iran’s government did not want to alienate the people of Baku republic. Even today despite massive Zionist brainwashing there are still many people in Baku republic who support Iran. Knowing they are under massive Zionist brainwashing Iran attempts to keep its influence in the region without seeming to be hostile to Baku republic. I happen to oppose this policy and want my government to not only directly and openly support Armenia but also plan to end the existence of the fake republic of Baku once and for all.
I’m sure Iran and Russia are aware of the NATO plans that are being implemented and will not be caught off guard. I don’t know what they are planning behind the scenes but I have confidence they will deal with this NATO project just like they dealt with NATO’s project in Syria and Iraq.
This is not correct. Russia, China and Iran have different interests.
True pride, excellent. 👍
Your site allows spam solicitations. Also many comments just troll and insult. It diminishes your site and it’s usefulness.
The Nagorno Karabagh Armenians had the will and courage to fight… they were overwhelmed with Israeli supplied and (NATO) Turk supplied and managed drones. imported (but deceived) syrian ISIS jihadists and even Paki support, which “Christian” Georgia prevented flights from Russia to Armenia but open the routes to Israeli bound daily 5 cargo planes. Armenia needed support (Russia/France/India/Iran) to fight the good fight… none (other than some bullshit words from Macron) was to be forthcoming. The beyond incompetent (traitorous?)fool Pashynian suffered a humiliating defeat and even more humiliating peace which is currently allowing the emboldened Azeris to chip away at Armenia proper. All of these useless friends will pay a heavy price for their impotence and unwillingness to support Christian resistance to the khazar and donmeh onslaught on Christendom…. watch you will see….the war will move to their doorsteps… Pashynian meanwhile will bring Globohomo to the Caucusus and Armenia to destruction.
“Iran Becoming Increasingly Alarmed By The Larry-Curly-Moe Axis”
No need to be afraid of the three stooges. They’re more a danger to themselves than anyone else.
“Pakistan’s army would invade Tehran if it made any hostile move against Baku” – Bullshit fearmongering not based in ANY reality. Neither is Pakistan not capable of doing this, but it doesn’t have the stomach for it (it is engaged with India fulltime), even if it is nuke armed. Its motivations to join the “axis” is not political but economic. Pakistan, even whilst not articulating it, understands full well that 1. Iranian and Paki security along its common border is crucial for the stability of both states. 2.Both Iran and Pakistan are under threat from the Zionists – a common enemy and Pakistan is under threat from its numerically superior neighbour to its east, India. Just like economics in the bankrupt Paki state prevents it from openly defying the Sunni Gulf monarchies, so too does economics encourage it to play along with Baku-Turkey axis. Turkey after all is a NATO state and the Taliban told them exactly where to get off – non of the “Turks are the new Caliphate” bullshit are heard by the Talibs. Pakis (after shooting itself in the foot by joining Bush’s war against Afghanistan and betraying talibs) want an integrated regional strategy against ANY imperial designs and the Islamic Republic, anti imperialist by its founding (Khomeini declared Iran to be neither East nor West aligned) is part of this. It will be a foolish mistake to break ideologically from an integrated Iran-Russia-China axis – its very survival depends on strengthening that axis. As the CPEC comes to fruition and hopefully the ultra corrupt Paki state gets its act together, Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan will have closer ties with Russia and her satellite “stans to the North of Afghanistan. That is the Reality and the ISI/Paki deep state know that better than anyone else – regardless what emanates from the mouths of its politicians. Ultimately, Erdogan, a regional warmonger threatening the integrity of the Syrian and Iranian state cannot be trusted. The wisest moves for both Pakistan and Iran is to have a secret defence pact in case of attack by Israel -since some believe that an Israeli-US-NATO attack on Iran will be Simultaneous with an attack on the Pakis with the help of India to de-nuke the Muslim world’s only nuke powered state. Pakistan will be supported in hardware (Tactical battlefield nukes) by China and with its wealth of strategic intelligence. It can be a formidable partner to Iran in saving both homelands and obliterating the Zionist state. The Pakis apparently have more nukes than India
Good analysis!
This is correct. The Syrian regime is not that strong. These states like Turkey, Iran and Pakistan are much stronger. Azerbaijan is also a bit stronger than the Syrian regime. All they need is a MB coup in Egypt and then the war begins between us Europeans and the Muslims.
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