The United States and Iran have reached a memorandum of understanding to end the war, but many more challenges lie ahead, especially from Israel, which is not pleased with the deal.
Despite repeated warnings from Iran, on June 14, as the deal was being finalized, Israeli strikes hit the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital, Beirut — a stronghold of Hezbollah.
The strikes were a clear attempt by Israel to sabotage the agreement. Still, Iran refrained from responding, and the very next day, June 15, the deal was announced.
Reports that surfaced after the announcement of the deal revealed what appears to be a complete Iranian victory.
The Islamic Republic appears to have gotten all of its demands, from sanctions relief, to the release of frozen assets, and will even get to keep some sort of control over the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran will get access to a $300 billion fund, which other Persian Gulf states will help establish.
At the same time, Iran does not appear to have given up on its nuclear rights, which will be the subject of further talks with the U.S. that will go on for at least 60 days.
As for the country’s missile program and its regional influence, no limits on these were included in the deal, and they will not be included in following talks.
While a formal in-person signing ceremony was scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland, the deal was signed digitally on the very same day it was announced.
In his first comment on the deal later on June 15, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. He also seems to criticize Trump, saying that he does not always see “eye to eye” with him.
On June 17, Trump said that the deal with Iran is “not final,” warning that Washington could resume military strikes against Tehran if “they don’t behave.”
Despite the threat, later on the same day, the U.S. president signed a hard copy of the deal during a dinner with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Palace of Versailles. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also signed off on it remotely, officially finalizing it.
Still, Iran’s parliamentary speaker and key negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that his distrust of the U.S. remained, and that the Islamic Republic’s “finger is on the trigger”.
The next 60 days will likely see de-escalation in the Middle East. However, the war is not over yet. The majority of U.S. forces are still in the region, and will not likely leave before a comprehensive agreement is reached. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic remains cautious. The main source of worry is Israel, which could act on its own to sabotage the deal.
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