Strait of Hormuz / Wikipedia
Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if its oil sales are blocked because of the pressure from the US.
“The most transparent, complete and prompt response was given by Mr [Hassan] Rouhani, the Iranian president, in his last trip to Europe. The response was clear: if Iran cannot export oil through the Persian Gulf, no-one will do this,” Iranian Supreme Leader’s senior adviser for international affairs Ali Akbar Velayati said, speaking at the Valdai discussion club in Russia. “Either everyone will export, or no-one.”
Velayati’s remarks are a clear response to the repeated US attempts to cut off Iran’s oil exports after Washington had pulled out of the landmark nuclear agreement between Teheran and other powers.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for oil coming from the Middle East. Most of oil export from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq passes through the strait.
Interesting -> thank you. Great video.
Agreed, good video. The quality of opinion and analysis at Southfront has improved greatly.
The author and I are definitely on the same page regarding Strait of Hormuz. In an earlier post I wrote:
What is different though is that Russia and China can hit back hard. Iran can also hit back but it is the Straight of Hormuz that is critical. Iran can prevent shipping from traversing the narrow straight and oil prices will reach levels unimaginably high. Taking out countries with limited capabilities to fight back has meant low casualties for the US and so the public has tended to tolerate the interventions. This time, it will be very different in so many ways. ——————-
I totally agree. Cheers.
SF demonising Iran, and preending Iran is threatening world oil supplies- how very suprising NOT! The zionist trolls from tel aviv praising the demonisation of Iran in the comments here is to be expected.
https://twitter.com/Abakwainfo/status/1016683291519475712
Meanwhile this video, censored by SF from its new cycle, shows the actual state of the planet today. An Israeli trained death squad, part of Cameroon’s OFFICIAL army (an army backed by Russia, France, Britain, the USA and all the usual suspects) proudly killing women and little children on camera. And NO, they are not shooting at ‘terrorists’ and missing, hitting inncoents by ‘accident’.
Israel, with Putin’s 100% support, is taking the Earth to a TIME OF MONSTERS. An age of atrocity where everything becomes possible- including the nuking of Iran. It is essential for kremlin outlets like SF to sell the idea that Iran is an existential threat.
Putin has supported every one of Blair’s wars, beginning with Russia’s betrayal of Serbia during the Kosovo war, and then all of Russia’s pro-war votes at the UNSC after the false flag known as 9/11.
SF is just another propaganda outlet that carefully REFUSES to cover any world event that actually matters- would actually move the opinion of readers.
The video from Cameroon is heartbreaking and so informative about the current state of our planet- which is why SF must ensure it gets ZERO coverage here. When Israel can train butchers across the planet to follow jew sniper ‘Gaza’ rules, everything becomes possible in atrocity- and that’s what the jews need for the Iran War set to kick of this Septemeber on the anniversary of 911.
Trump and the jew butcher from Israel have been on their world tours to set up the Iran War. Putin cannot wait, as he falls over himself to sell Russia’s best to every member of the demonic wahhabi bloc (headed by Turkey and Saudi Arabia). Iran is doomed, and tens of millions will shortly die there.
But if ordinary people got to see videos like this one from Cameroon they would immediately set up an anti-war backlash, and SF can’t allow this. SF is part of the jew media that needs to sell war as ‘acceptable’. SF exists to cheerlead acts of wartime violence, and to censor coverage when the outcome of war discussion would be counterproductive (which is why SF no longer covers Novorussia).
World Wars happen when all anti-war moral forces on the planet vanish.
SF is not demonising Iran they are simply reporting on what Rouhani said – if they cant export via the Persian gulf no one can. SF is not Kremlin outlet lol its run by unpaid volunteers otherwise they wouldnt need to keep fund raising every month.
I wouldn’t necessarily agree, SF could be funded by something more than public donations from random SF readers, and the “in your face” donations request might just be a clever way to make SF appear more independent than it really is. It certainly reads like propaganda, i.e. it’s biased. But it’s nevertheless a very useful source of information, if consumed as part of a balanced diet. :-)
What do you know of this Cameroon incident? I have seen it. Are the women and children related to headchoppers muslim terrorists or are they Christians?
Ramin Mazaheri of the Saker blog wrote several great articles in regard to Iran’s economy and the role Sepah and the Bonyads (foundations) play in it. The articles are lengthy and in great details and give very good information if anyone is interested.
Thanks Garga. I know a little about Syria myself as I have both been there + have numerous contacts I am in touch with. Just please (from what I am told), dont believe either side that you read….. the people want some sort of middle way, believing what they want, dont want Westerners but also do no want the Inmans.
It is just what I am being told.
The increasing pressure on Iran arising out of Trump’s tearing-up of the Iran Nuke deal will lead and can only lead to confrontation with Iran in the Straits of Hormuz. Iran will not be at fault if it does in fact close the Straits but be guaranteed that if these Straits are closed, it is not America that will suffer and it is not Russia that will suffer but Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Europe, China, Africa, India and the Far East. If this happens expect Oil to reach $200+ per Barrel and for the western economic and banking system to collapse. America will not be exempt merely because it has its own oil: America’s Banks and multi-national investment worldwide will crash. Trump really is that stupid that he and his surrounding yes-men, including Mnuchin in Treasury are feted to make America the most hated country on the planet.
Iran does not have the capability to close of the Strait for a sustained period of time. It does have the capability to cause a lot of trouble for the empire-in-decline’s flotilla that will be keeping the Strait open.
Its missile garments are good as to quantity and quality. Since the strait is narrow and the proximity to Iran immediate, only short and medium range missiles intelligently deployed and rotated are needed for the job. This is enough for closure.
I don’t dispute that Iran can close the Strait; my point is: for how long can it sustain an effectove closure when it is up against the US military might in the region?
USAF air interdiction would have to be 100% as it takes only ONE active missile battery to close the straits, but any such action is unlikely in any event, not just from economic POV, but also from perspective of vulnerabilities of US military personnel in region (Iraq, Qatar etc., here the bases are more a liability than an asset as the Iran military has capabilities to hit those too).
Real Anti-Racist Action also gave an explanation above as to what Iran has to close off the Strait effectively.
I certainly hope that all of what you guys have said is true because the US has no right to stop Iran from exporting its oil, nor from punishing 3rd countries from purchasing Iran’s oil.
Actually, Iran does have the ability to keep the straight closed for well over a year. From their very advanced mines which look like garbage bags sitting on the bottom of the ocean which Iran has hundreds of. They were originally Chinese designs. So simply anti-tank missiles which are within striking range from shore in the area. To being able to specifically targeting that area with ground to ground missiles from the polar opposite side of Iran for two years. Simply put, it is a death trap for anyone Iran chooses. Mines can even be hand released from shore to freely float in the vicinity. It is to simply, cause even Iranian large caliber small arms with scopes fired by special forces from shore with be damaging vessels. It is just to narrow. It is easier to do then to defend Tehran from invasion.
OK RARA, thanks for the explanation. If what you say is true, then I am very happy that Iran can, if need be, put its money where its mouth is.
I am delighted to hear this! Thanks:)
I think sufficient export capacity has been put in place over the last 2 years, to offset any ‘major’ effect from a blockade of the gulf. I guess such a blockade would probably be a suitable excuse for some states to launch more direct action against Iran. Meanwhile they have really put Iran under pressure internally. Russia and China both seem to have been pretty well neutralised from responding in different ways. So the pressure is stacking up on Iran.
Saudi Arabia has reopened and upgraded their Red Sea west coast export facilities over the last couple of years. They claim they now have sufficient capacity to meet all their export export commitments. They have also reopened the Iraq pipelines and export facilities on the West Coast, but I’m not sure whether that capacity is sufficient to fully offset the loss of their exports going through the Persian Gulf, incase of a blockade of the Gulf by Iran. The USA is ready to absorb any loss of LNG from Qatar, I guess Russia is also able to profit from any LNG volume loss through the gulf as its hurried to bring its Yamal LNG facilities online by Dec 2017. I think they now have perhaps 4 of their ice breaker LNG tankers in operation, out of a total of 15 already planned for construction. Australia is also becoming a big LNG player. Iran’s interference in Yemen (particularly the western area) I guess also was partly related to Saudi’s decision to remove its reliance on the gulf for exports. It’s all interesting, goading Iran Into blockading the Gulf might be just the thing Saudi & the USA are looking for. I think the USA military recruitment will be reaching its peak this year. 80,000 new recruits were planned for 2018 IIRC. So I guess 2019-2021 would be an appropriate window of opportunity for summat to kick off, even if just the risk of it is used as a negotiating ploy.
The USA is a major exporter of LNG.
And is trying (and hoping) to vastly increase its LNG exports. What better way than to trigger a ‘choke’ in the Straits of Hormuz!!
I think you’ve been reading too much of the NY Times & WaPo :) Iran has NOT interfered in Yemen. It is the Saudis and Emirati who interfered in the internal politics of Yemen and when they discovered they were in deeper that they could have possible imagined they gave a strangled call for help and,as usual, the US/UK/French Cavalry rolled up ……… and promptly dismounted!!
I don’t read those sources. Iran is certainly involved in Yemen, as are lots of other states, and stateless actors.
The reason why I say that Iran is far less involved in Yemen that one might believe it to be if reliant upon most Western media, is that Yemen is surrounded by a ring of steel imposed by the Saudis to the North, East & West and by the Emiratis to the South ……….. for Saudis & Emiratis, please read US/UK/France/Sudan and a few more E African States. Many in the West appear to believe the Houthi to be a form of primitive Tribal force but the truth is that the Houthi have managed to get their hands on the bulk of the Arms of the former Hadi Government (Dictatorship) and have, in addition, created parallel Armaments-Models based on the stockpiles they managed to get their hands on. Unfortunately, one might be forgiven for believing the Houthi to be a rag-bag collection of Tribal fighters acting under orders from massed ranks of Iranian Revolutionary Guards and/or other similar military figures and structures if we were to rely solely on what is written in Times/Telegraph/Mail/Express/Guardian/Sun in the UK or on WaPo/NYTimes/NYPost/LATimes or on l’Equipe and/or on what is ‘reported’ on BBC/ITN/FOX/SKY/NBC/ABC etc etc etc: nothing could be further from the truth.
I admit, I haven’t followed Yemen that closely… I had a dig around yesterday, but couldn’t find much to support Iran’s involvement, other than vague references to the odd component of rockets and missiles, but it’s pretty weak.
If Iran by closing the Hormuz’ strait provoques a major wolrd wide economic crisis, Iran may save the world from the evil Anglo-Zionist Empire’s clutch and in doing so avoid the world to reach Armageddon. It is high-time to plunge the world in bankrupcy
Iran can do jack shit let them try .
A) Does Iran expect to put up any sort of fight against NATO warships? B) Do they expect the Iranian general public and Russia to tolerate a full blown war? C) I’m calling Iran’s bluff.
Well the US just reneged on it’s part in relation to the JCPOA. What has Iran got to lose? Yes it probably could provoke a military option with the US/NATO etc. BUT does the US have the balls to do this ? I’m calling the US’s bluff on that one. Considering the major players in this game, Russia and China, now have some brand new weaponry in their arsenal that the generals are just itching to try out in a battlefield situation with their old adversary. The on going Chinese/US trade war, the Anti Russia narrative so passionately played out by the US’s lap dog the UK government and now the May government in disarray, I think it is a fair call to say that the US whilst having some strong allies on it’s side would have to contend with a very strong, well armed and highly capable opposition that includes China and Russia. And yes the price of oil would go up and the world economy, fragile at this moment, would probably dive bomb again.
What’s with the profile picture?
Yes that is the same question I am asking you??
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e6b00e23cf39a267b866414ff43abd73a8e041f932ff0d20d97c13561dcac1f0.jpg
I do have a sense of humor that doesn’t involve politics. Look up Glaudrung on IFunny.
I think they would go for the heart, why bother with NATO, when a massive assault on Israel would solve the problem?
Actually now that I’ve answered your statement that was designed to provoke antagonism, I will give a real answer.
Iran will not attack any nation, unless that nation attacks Iran. Iran does not have to get into a hot war to destroy the US. Money is Americas Achilles heel.
Technically, US economic warfare targeting Iran is illegal and an act of war. Iran is justified in retaliating if the US does not back off. We are at the point of brinksmanship and let us hope the US recognizes it can no longer rule the world and backs down.
If Trump backs down, he loses the next election.
A very good point.
I’m quite sure Iran is quaking in its boots Smaug!!
I’m sure too. Between the dirty war, Iran’s commitments to the wars in Syria and Yemen, the undeclared war with Israel, the civil dissidence inside Iran, a number of insurgent groups in Iran, the strained relationship with Moscow, the expensive and controversial nuclear program, and Iran’s persecution of every imaginable minority in that country. … Who knows what the next 10 years hold for Tehran?
Dear Smaug, Iran’s involvement in Syria is now far less than it ever was in the period between 2014 – 2017 and the consistent refrain from BiBi, Lieberman et al to the effect that Iranian Forces are chomping at the bit to roll over the Golan and downhill all the way to Jaffa is nothing less than unfounded drum-rolling to ensure that Israel’s best friends in Washington remain ready, willing and able to come to poor Israel’s aid. What is clear is that Syrian State Forces, from the Syrian Arab Army to Militias in the East to the National Military guards (or whatever they now call themselves as a full-time reserve force) is now far more concerned with reclaiming East / N East Syria, including the Oil-Fields from Kurdish Forces and their American & Israeli enablers and given the number of Israeli Airstrikes in Eastern Syria over the past 3 – 4 months, it is clear that the Israeli/American/Saudi plan to dispossess Syria of its Oil-Fields is failing while the so-called fight to remove ISIS appears to have come to a halt. Iran Revolutionary Guards are far more involved in Eastern & North Eastern Syria than anywhere else because Iran knows and understands that maintaining the land-corridor from Iran to the Mediterranean is of enormous strategic importance for both Tehran and Damascus. Moreover, maintaining this corridor is something with which Russia is in full agreement having regard to Kazakh & Russia’s & Russian Federation’s own plans to funnel Gas from Fields to the East of the Caspian and East of the Urals through Iran and onwards to the Mediterranean and Europe and now probably linking with Qatar’s Pipe to Europe along the same route, and cutting off Israel from those Gas Flows. Meanwhile, back at home in Tehran and in far-flung Cities and Villages of Iran, what is of infinitely greater importance than these strategic issues is the putting of bread on the table. It simply beggars belief that Iranians would throw in their lot with those they know to have done their absolute best to break Iran ……. from Saudis to Israelis to Americans for past 18 months rather than support Iran and its entirely independent and un-vassal-state-like status. Meanwhile Iran is far less involved in Yemen that one might believe it to be if one is reliant upon most Western media and the propaganda spouted by US State Department, British Foreign Office and the Elysee Palace. Iran’s role in Yemen is really no more than moral support from afar insofar as Yemen is surrounded by a ring of steel imposed by the Saudis to the North, East & West and by the Emiratis to the South ……….. for Saudis & Emiratis, please read US/UK/France/Sudan and a few more E African States. Many in the West appear to believe the Houthi to be a form of primitive Tribal force but the truth is that the Houthi have managed to get their hands on the bulk of the Arms of the former Hadi Government (Dictatorship) and have, in addition, created parallel Armaments-Models based on the stockpiles they managed to get their hands on. Unfortunately, one might be forgiven for believing the Houthi to be a rag-bag collection of Tribal fighters acting under orders from massed ranks of Iranian Revolutionary Guards and/or other similar military figures and structures if we were to rely solely on what is written in Times/Telegraph/Mail/Express/Guardian/Sun in the UK or on WaPo/NYTimes/NYPost/LATimes or on l’Equipe and/or on what is ‘reported’ on BBC/ITN/FOX/SKY/NBC/ABC etc etc etc: nothing could be further from the truth. Your cravings for victory on the part of “the West” over Iran, Houthi Yemeni and Syrians will have to wait. Buckle up and shut up cos your pin-ups inside the Tents of Riyadh will be ancient history long before the plans of bin Salman and his ilk and their far-descendants ever sniff victory. Granting the privilege of driving to Saudi women will keep the western press and media in awe of bin Salman’s moderate form of Sunni Islam whilst Syrian women together with Iranian women to a lesser extent have been driving, running businesses, partaking in the military and, even in Iran, dressing just as western women dress without wearing black robes and hijabs ……… and very beautiful they are, these Persian women!!
There is a lot of brain power here at Southfront given the overall quality of posts. I think it would be very beneficial to apply some of that power to debate on what seems to be the rapidly hardening of opposition to the US and her Allies/proxies.
There is definitely a difference and I sensed the shift a while back and I think it is becoming clear now that the lines are being drawn and the players are not bluffing. The Iranian threat needs to be placed in context of the larger picture. The US has been very high handed in using economic warfare against dissenters and threats to allies to keep them in line. Iran is throwing down the gauntlet in my opinion and this is of tremendous importance. When the dominant power has weakened sufficiently while the opposition is in accendency, the final showdown is inevitable and when it finally comes, it is also a moment of great danger. I think the showdown has begun.
The danger is a consequence of how state actors handle this potentially volatile and chaotic transition period when global power centres dramatically shift. This was the case in 1956 when Britain finally let go of what remained of her globe spanning empire – referred to as the abandonment of the East of Suez Policy. Britain did not abandon without a fight and along with Israel and France, intervened in Egypt to seize the Suez Canal from Nasser in one last great hurrah of imperial glory. The Suez Crisis almost plunged the world into WW3 as the USSR was prepared to intervene.
In this case, the US rebuked Britain, France and Israel and a cease fire was brokered. Britain used paratroopers and although they took their objectives, they suffered heavy losses which shocked Downing Street, and the British public. The intervention was far from glorious and Britain took a major diplomatic hit and so finally, Britain through in the towel and,made,a,deal,with the US to administer the Empire with Britain as the subservient partner – that must of been a tough one to swallow. Note this is why British foreign policy practically mirrored US foreign policy for the longest time – this was part of the arrangement.
Now here we are again, different players but the same sh_t. Will the US do as Britain and play brinksmanship with Iran? If the US does, I doubt Iran will back,down, it would be far,to much of a humiliation to do so. No, Iran made,the threat to signal they are ready and determined to oppose the US even if it means a hot war. Then we have the Suez Crisis happening again although call it the Strait,of,Hormuz Crisis.
If this,happens, all bets are off!
The thing is, Iran is merely a piece on the chessboard, and in of itself, I don’t think it’s a very important one. Without knowing what the US long term goals are, or in what other ways pressure on Iran can indirectly affect other players, or how other events around the world impact on Iran, or how other events and players are interacting beyond the Iran question. It’s really hard to see clearly. We just don’t have the necessary information to get the full picture. I pick up a few crumbs here and there, but the picture I’m stringing together from them may just be a fantasy.
I see the parallels you are drawing between the USA now, and Britain during the Suez… but I don’t really think the USA is in that position yet. It’s still a long way ahead militarily, and seems capable of using that advantage to apply pressure, or achieve goals with Direct military actions against states without firm opposition from the next biggest players.
I still suspecting that the USA can achieve a lot more using its advantages, before breaching any sort of threshold where things can kick off around the world. At present, I just don’t think any of the rich & powerful around the world really want to throw the dice in the air, and risk an uncontrolled conflict. I think they are liable to back down in the face of US pressure. One of the US strategies under Trump is his threat to throw the dice in the air, if the US doesn’t get its needs met. At present nobody wants a full blown Ukraine conflict, North Korea conflict, or an Iran conflict. So the USA is getting its needs met. I can’t see how this is gonna change. Sure, none of the other players like the situation, but they will probably go along with things, teeth gritted.
Great analysis. The US military is still the strongest that is for sure. But economic warfare is currently the favoured tool – backed up by military threat. A lot of US actions are driven by need to protect US$ reserve status. This status is under credible threat and growing. US economic power depends on reserve status and the military depends on economic strength. Perhaps this is why Trump is barking so much about other countries paying their fair share. So the question remains of whether nations are prepared yet to forcefully challenge the US. Opposition is growing, but as you point out, in the end, they back down in the face of US threat. And so if we have not reached that point yet, how much longer will this be the case?
Iran is not a major power but has importance in the energy markets and geo-strategic importance due to proximity to the Strait of Hormuz. You have made a good argument why Iran would not precipitate a war with the US and so I did a rethink on Iran’s reasoning for repeating the threat.
I think Iran wants the other world leaders to be motivated to work around US sanctions on Iran. Trump having the position that no oil be exported from Iran would, if enforced, totally devastate Iran’s economy. So invoking the Armageddon button can motivate world leaders to find some solution as they must understand that Iran will have no choice but to respond – there is the saying: the most dangerous man is the one that has nothing left to lose.
So what happens if November comes and Iran’s back is to the wall? Russia had had enough of US meddling in the Middle East that seemed only good at creating new terrorist groups and failed states. So Russia intervened in Syria which put Russian military assets in contact with US military assets and proxies in a war zone. The intervention was significant not only as a challenge to US supremacy, but also that Syria is on the list of nation states targeted by the US to be taken down.
South Syria seems to have been ceded to Assad. But Eastern Syria is a big question mark. Russia has let it be known that Idlib is next so Turkey has been put on notice. This is reminiscent of the years leading up to WWII when France and Britain finally put their foot down when Hitler reneged on his promise to be satisfied with occupation of the Sudetenland by occupying all of Czechoslovakia. When Hitler threatened Poland to hand over the Port of Gdynia and the corridor to Prussia, Poland appealed to Britain and France – they responded by granting a security guarantee to Poland. If Germany invaded Poland, Britain and France would go to war with Germany.
Hitler gambled that the security guarantee was a bluff and Britain and France would not risk war with Germany over Poland. We know what happened.
I think that is all very reasonable thinking. But I can’t join the dots up yet. Random comments in no particular order follow…
The US sanctions on Iran have hit the Airbus 330-800 contract with Iran, that seems to put pressure on Germany, (but some on France and Spain too). Trump and the Western European establishment are trying to use all the tools in the book to stop Nord Stream 2 getting to Germany. Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have all been primed with military exercises, and public opposition to Russia, and the pipeline going through their EEZ – I dunno where things stand with NS2 now. Following attempts to frustrate South Stream, Putin cancelled it. Gazprom suggested a shorter pipeline into Europe from the Crimea, Europe imposed sanctions. Putin seems to have roped in Erdogan to allow gas to transit through Turkey, and just last month it was announced that Turkey is going to connect this up to the new BRUA pipeline, going though Bulgaria, Romania, Hungry, and the main gas interconnector in Austria. Austria is pro-Russian, Switzerland seems a bit wobbly at present. Slovakia has had recent political issues. Hungary is being vilified in the western press, looks pro-Russian. The BRUA thing all looks like a bit of a coup for Russia. The UK recently accused Russia of trying to turn Maldova. This whole area is active.
These pipelines may be real, or just traded away again as bargaining tools. It’s hard to see clearly. But Iran did seem like it was being used as a bargaining tool by Russia in the past, I don’t how many times Putin threatened to sell Iran S400 SAM’s, but it’s not clear how they were being used. I sense something has changed here.
Those north Korean Ballistic Missiles were strange, it almost seems like they got there with the blessing of the USA, as they came out of the Ukraine. They brought pressure to bear on China, with the risk of a conflict. But it seems that China had been interfering in South Korea. Obviously there is Taiwan, and US behavior here has annoyed the Chinese.
Turkey had been involved with the Xinjiang terrorism in NE China. China let loads of problem Uyghurs leave that region, I understand they turned up in Turkey. Turkey pushed them into Syria. I understood after the Syria thing began to get under control, Turkey may have shipped them off to SE Asia.
Russia has been moving fast to get its new LNG terminal functioning in Nenets/Yamal region. 15 Ice breaker LNG tankers ordered. 4 delivered. The importance of this project was brought to light when ISIS turned up there earlier this year.
Well I did respond… but for some reason my posts are now flagged as spam.
Yes I read your response and liked it and then it was gone. I wondered what happened and now I know. I saw nothing in your post that would warrant flagging so I would complain to Southfront.
By the way, I got banned by Southfront about a month ago but it only lasted about a day and was lifted before I even had a chance to complain. So hopefully it will be the same in your case as you make good points in your posts.
Maybe you could try to repost your reply,