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More than a month after the surprising fall of the Assad regime in Syria the future of the Russian military presence in the country remains in question, although facts from the ground indicate that there won’t be a catastrophic withdrawal like the one the United States went through in Afghanistan some four years ago.
Russia has two bases in Syria, a naval logistics center in the port city of Tartus and the Khmeimim airbase near the town of Jableh in the southern countryside of Latakia.
The Tartus base was set up in 1971 under a bilateral agreement. The Russian Aerospace Force set up an aviation group in Syria in 2015 to support the now dissolved Syrian Arab Army in the fight against ISIS.
The fate of the base in Tartus was questioned by the mainstream media on January 21 when Syria’s Al Watan newspaper reported, citing a senior Syrian customs official, that the country’s new authorities, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have terminated an investment contract about the management of the key port that concluded with a Russian company back in 2019 – that WAS concluded.
“The agreement on investment into the port of Tartus, signed with a Russian company, has been annulled. All incomes from the port’s activities will be used in Syria’s interests,” Tartus customs department chief Riad Judi said.
The 49-year-long agreement was signed between the Syrian government and Russia’s Stroytransgas company in 2019.
The document envisaged that the Russian side will manage the port over that period, investing over $500 million into its modernization.
The mainstream media, especially Western news outlets, interpreted the Syrian report as the coup de grace for Russian military presence in Syria, ignoring the fact that the agreement in question was related only to the administration of the civilian section of Tartus port, and not related in any way to the agreement reached years prior on the naval base and the air base in Khmeimim.
Furthermore, sources with knowledge on operations in the civilian section of Tartus port informed SouthFront that the agreement with Stroytransgas never really materialized due to several factors, including U.S. sanctions on Syria which went into full force in 2019 as well as rampant corruption from the side of the former Syrian government.
According to these sources, when the contract was signed the so-called Security Office of the SAA’s 4th Armored Division was the de-facto operator of the port. Later, Yassar Ibramim, a close aide of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, controlled civilian operations in the port indirectly through a network of small, local security, customs and shipping companies.
It is still unclear if contract with Stroytransgas was in fact even legally finalized by the former Syrian government. Such contracts usually have a strict penal condition, thus they can’t be simply annulled by one of the sides at will as reported by Al Watan.
The report coincided with information confirming that Sparta II, a ro-ro cargo ship affiliated with the Russian Navy, had entered the Russian base in Tartus port after arriving in Syrian waters a few weeks earlier. The move marked the first known time a Russian vessel is known to have docked at the base since the collapse of the Assad regime.
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The ship is most likely tasked with evaluating military equipment from the base. However, this again does not necessarily mean that Russia is abandoning the port of Tartus.
In the weeks following the collapse of the Assad regime, Russian forces deployed in several small posts in central, southern and eastern Syria withdrew to Tartus base, which became crowded with vehicles. Sparta II will likely evacuate the extra equipment, which is not needed in Syria anymore. There is no clear indication that the base’s own equipment will be pulled out, at least not currently.
In fact, recent reports from Tartus indicate that Russian forces are now operating as before, although at a higher level of alert.
Eyewitnesses who spoke with SouthFront from the port city said that a Russian surveillance blimp has been deployed over the base for several weeks now. They also revealed that in recent days, Russian warships have once again approached the beach of the city and are easily visible from its coast.
In addition, footage aired recently by Al-Hadath TV showed Russian troops shopping in the town of Banias some 40 kilometers away from Tartus port.
The situation in Khmeimim air base is not as clear. HTS-led forces set up several checkpoints around the base in recent weeks. However, helicopters, reconnaissance planes and fighter jets are still operating from there on a regular basis. There have been no reports of any incidents, which indicate that the two sides are coordinating.
Following the collapse of the Assad regime, Russia warned of a plot to attack its bases in Syria. Nevertheless, it said that Western intelligence services were responsible, not HTS.
It’s worth noting that both Russia and the new government in Syria have voiced their openness to renegotiate the agreement related to the bases in Tartus and Khmeimim.
On December 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow proposed to use Russian military bases to deliver humanitarian aid to Syria. And on December 27, a source told TASS that the new Syrian authorities in the near future do not plan to sever the agreements that allow Russia to use the bases.
Speaking on the matter, Syria’s Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra said on January 22 that the government was still in talks with Moscow over the military bases.
“Up until now, it is unclear what the final solution will look like. We have not yet received instructions” from our leadership in this regard, he said in an interview with Al Araby television. “Talks are underway.”
The talks are conducted by the Syrian leadership and involve the Syrian Foreign Ministry, according to the minister.
While the Syrian government has been facing some pressure, mainly from the European Union, to expel Russian forces from the country, it does not appear to be fully on board with the idea. Considering the very complex situation in Syria, the presence of Russian military bases on the coast may be important to balance the influence of other foreign forces in the country.
The Syrian coast, the heartland of the Alawite minority -which Assad belong to- and a former stronghold of the regime, saw rising tensions in the weeks that followed the departure of Assad with calls from some locals leaders for the intervention of foreign forces. HTS forces have been very careful with their operations there, still blood was spilled from both sides.
The withdrawal of Russian forces from the coast could open the door for the intervention of other foreign forces which HTS will likely struggle more to deal with.
There has already been a report calling on the U.S. to take over Tartus port if Russia leaves. Considering the ongoing conflict with the U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria, this would likely mean the de-facto division of Syria.
And while Turkey has been a key backer of HTS, allowing it to expand its military control to the coast will likely leave future Syria completely dominated by Ankara both politically and economically.
Aside from the U.S. and Turkey, there have been several calls on social networks and media reports theorizing about some Israeli operation on the coast, or even the return of the French mandate. Such theories are unrealistic for sure, yet they are dangerous and the new Syrian government is for sure aware of this.
All in all, HTS clearly understands that Russia could have fought after the departure of Assad to maintain its grip over the Syrian coast but favored maintaining the unity and sovereignty of Syria. The group’s leaders and the officials of its new government have already made positive remarks about the relationship they are looking for with Moscow. However, high-level contact is yet to be made.
Now, the situation in both Tartus and Latakia is slowly calming down. Unlike other foreign forces in the country, Russia has not been interfering.
The Russian military presence appears to be in the interests of the new Syrian government. However, this does not mean that Russia is guaranteed to keep the bases.
The two sides will not likely make a decision on matters before the second quarter of the year, when a new national-unity government is supposed to take over in Syria. By this time, any advance in peace talks on Ukraine could ease any Western pressure on Damascus and allow it to engage more openly with Moscow on issues like military cooperation.
Even if a lasting agreement was reached, the shape and size of the Russian military presence in the country could change as the war would be over and there would be no combat operations.
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in my gay amerikan bar we all inferior humiliated senile retired janitors
more rubbish biden sabotaged america’s military on purpose by pulling out the troops in the most unprofessional and disastrous way possible that could never be deemed anything buf akin to intentionality, and gifted the taliban billions of dollars worth of equipment.. on purpose it was not a withdrawal its was a deposit paid down to build up the taliban to attack russia, to i crease tge scope of ww3 and wreak more death and destruction around the world. imo
i stay in my hillbilly trailer park in burgerland; russians stay in syria
actual reports say the new islamists rulers in damaskus have canceled all agreements with russia, so a partly or even full russian retreat in the next time is likely. so russia should try to build new bases in lebanon or in libya in the allied general hafta controlled parts.
russia should just annex those bases until htf can pay back syrian government loans and unpaid liabilities back to russia. how about that instead?
russian should leve “syria” and start bombing and “kalibrating” jihadists… not worth mantain anything in there
russia should leave idlibistan “ex-syria”. it could use lybia as new base, help stabilize the country. lybia has much more oil than syria, which has nothing really.. let the west deal with the quagmire
hts dont want the same scenario as we have seen in libya where forces of egipt nd uae supported another faction againts qatar&turkey axe which took all east of libya,
caso almasri, il portavoce dell’ong david yambio: “italia complice dei suoi crimini nell’inferno del carcere in libia” il rappresentante di refugees in libya: «chi ha preso parte alla parodia dell’arresto e del rilascio ha sangue sulle mani…
the american withdrawal from afghanistan was theater, complete with fake blow up doll airplanes, a deal was made. syria, may or may not be a similar theater, or rather a trap set for israel, uk, america and turkey to expose their criminal intent more so to the world and destroy their once coveted strangle hold on the information war narrative. g-7 politicians, giving standing ovations to visiting war criminals says it all.
putin+edogan=daesh+brics
the ruzzian nazis were kicked out, what a humiliation for putin 😆 🇷🇺=🤡 😆😆😆
this was a strategic defeat against both russia and iran. they lost valuable ground to help the so called “resistance front” in lebanon and gaza. at the end of the day — it is all about israeli interests and the global banking elite’s interests. hence russia is a cuck of the same overlords as the west
hts headchopper gang is now referred to as the syrian government and assad is called the regime? dont u guys at sf have any principles?
btw they definitely going to kick russia out. so keep the honor to yourself and stop these ridicules change of tone.
if these people really know what’s happening in syria, they would have predicted it to collapse. i don’t know anyone who did. so it’s really hard to say what the truth is.
told you all before but that the sjiiets (fake muslim zionists), turks (khazarian zionists) and russians (byzantine zionists) will betray the arab couse. told you also before that these cryptozionists want jerusalem as a religieus treasure for themselfes and using the arabs as usefull idiots.