File image.
Late on September 4, 12 officer of the Iraqi Federal Police were killed and three others were injured in a hit-and-run attack in the northern Iraqi province of Kirkuk. The attack was reportedlly carried out by ISIS.
The attack targeted a position of the 2nd Regiments of the Police’s 19th Brigade in the town of Tell Satyh in the al-Rashad district.
The police were not able to send reinforcements on time because the road leading to Tell Satyh was booby-trapped by ISIS cells. Furthermore, the Iraqi Air Force didn’t provide the police force with close support.
Iraqi sources shared a video showing the aftermath of the attack. A burned down Humvee armored vehicle can be seen in the footage.
ISIS has not claimed responsibility for the attack, so far. Usually, terrorist group announce its operations in Iraq a few days late.
The terrorist group has been fairly active in Kirkuk. Early on September 2, cells of the group attacked the town of Shahel. The attack was repelled by local gunmen. However, a civilian was killed and seven others were wounded by the terrorists.
The Iraqi government has been facing much criticism over the deteriorating situation in Kirkuk. Many questions are being asked about the lack of proper security measures in the countryside of the province.
SYRIA APPROVES US PLAN TO PROVIDE GAS, ELECTRICITY FOR LEBANON
What a spectacular development! This new Russian/American deal deserves a good analysis of what may be going on behind the scenes. I’ll attempt to dissect what’s happening to the Russian-Iranian-Syrian alliance. Hezbollah and Iran need to improve or at least maintain its image in the eyes of the Lebanese people. Iran and Hezbollah have taken steps to relief Lebanon of its oil troubles by sending tankers of oil to Lebanon in the past weeks. The U.S and Israel both refrained from interfering with Iran’s oil shipment in order to not make America look like an enemy of the Lebanese people. At the same time, Iran looks like the savior of Lebanon by providing much needed gas at a cheap rate. So why would Russia agree to this plan by America to diminish the role of Hezbollah and Iran with regards to oil in Lebanon? Secondly, why would Russia agree to a deal that represents an economic setback for Iran? Unlike Assad, Russia knows that Iran is the cause of Syria’s problem. Iran’s shipment of weapons to Hezbollah through Syria was and still is the major reason why the Anglozionists targeted Syria for destruction. This war is all about cutting off Hezbollah from Iran and then weakening Hezbollah and possibly eliminate it by all means possible (including by inciting the Lebanese against Hezbollah and possibly starting a civil war). This new deal to ship oil through Syria will hurt Iran and Hezbollah terribly in Lebanon. It’ll make Iran and Hezbollah insignificant regarding oil (Oil is the only remaining aspect of Lebanon that Iran and Hezbollah can help with, and thus, shore up their public image). This means that Russia is willing to throw Iran and Hezbollah under the bus to maintain Assad’s rule in Syria.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR ASSAD? Well, it’s highly unlikely to lead to a recognition of the Assad regime by the West. This is because of the Kurdish question and the Iran-Hezbollah corridor. However, Assad will reap some moderate financial benefits and maybe an easing of some sanctions. America wants to divide Syria and use the Kurds against Turkey, Iran, and Assad’s part of Syria. The problem for America is that both Russia and Turkey will not allow a Kurdistan in Syria. If America is going to recognize Assad’s rule, then America must give up its Kurdistan project. This will neutralize the Kurdish threat for Turkey, Syria, and Iran. Recognizing the Assad government is highly likely to leave the Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon link open, thus defeating all America’s designs in that part of the Middle East. America simply cannot sacrifice its Syrian ambitions in exchange for transporting gas to Lebanon via Syria – EXCEPT IF RUSSIA CAN GUARANTEE THAT THE IRAN-HEZBOLLAH CORRIDOR WILL BE CUT.
The problem for Russia is that Iran has infested Syria with militias. Attempting to dislodge these militias from Syria will lead to another major war against Assad. Russia cannot afford such a scenario. Making a deal with Iran to withdraw its militias is also impossible as that would mean sacrificing Hezbollah. The mission of these Iran-backed Syrian militias is first to secure and keep the Iran-Hezbollah link open. Their second mission is to help Assad stay in power.
WHAT DOES THIS ASSAD-PUTIN-BIDEN DEAL MEAN FOR TURKEY?
First, an easing of pressure on Assad is bad news for Idlib and Turkey. It will embolden Russia to be more aggressive towards Idlib while symultaneously giving Assad access to more resources. If the deal leads to a recognition of the Assad regime (highly unlikely due to reasons mentioned above), then Turkey will have to withdraw from Syria (provided the Kurds agree to disarm and be ruled by Assad). If America agrees to a deal with Russia that disarms the Kurds, Turkey will have to negotiate handing over Idlib back to Assad. Considering that the U.S cannot abandon its Syria ambitions, it’ll be childish to think that this deal paves way for the recognition of Assad by America. What Turkey can do is wait and see what Biden and Putin do with the Kurds.
WHAT DOES THIS DEAL MEAN FOR RUSSIA? First, it’ll cause frictions between Russia and Iran. This will affect Russia’s ambitions in Syria because Assad may have hostile Iran-backed forces in his own part of Syria. Iran has provided cheap foot-soldiers for Russia’s mission in Syria. Iran can withdraw this support any moment or even turn it against Assad and Russia. If this happens, Putin may find himself in a difficult position where Russia will be forced to deploy more ground troops from the Russian armed forces – thus, increasing the cost in blood and treasure for Russia. Will the Russian public tolerate more body bags coming home from Syria? Very unlikely.
WHAT BOTH RUSSIA AND AMERICA CAN DO TO ACHIEVE ALL OR PART OF THEIR GOALS
Russia can turn a blind eye to American and Israeli strike military attack throughout Syria to root out Iran’s militias. On the other hand, America must persuade the Kurds to disarm and be governed by Assad – maybe similar to the position of the Kurds in Iraq. Any U.S/Russian agreement that does not disarm the Kurds will see Turkey launcing military attacks against armed Kurdish groups in Syria. This will happen as soon as the U.S withdraws from Syria. It will also pit Turkey against Russia and the Kremlin will attempt to control all of Syria’s airspace. I think it would lead to a shootout between Turkish and Russian forces. America would love that. A war with Turkey is certainly not in Putin’s agenda as it will ruin all Russian gains in Syria and pose unacceptable risks to the lives of Russian servicemen in Syria. Putin can easily solve this problem by making sure that the Kurds are completely disarmed. If America abandons the Kurds like it did the Afghan government, then this would be a very realistic goal for Russia (to easily disarm the Kurds, thereby preventing any clashes with Turkey).
This could be Putin’s game: sacrificing Iran’s militias and influence in both Syria and Lebanon just to restore Assad’s rule of Syria. It’s a very realistic goal for Putin. The biggest loser will be Iran, as it’s Syrian and Lebanon arm will be cut off. The next biggest loser will be Turkey as it will be forced to give Idlib back to Assad. I do not think Turkey will fight over Idlib after such a deal. Russia is highly unlikely to win any shooting war with Turkey in Syria. The last war Russia fought against Turkey ended in a Turkish victory. Read up on the battle of Gallipoli. It was fought between Turkey on the one hand and Russia, Britain, and France on the other hand. This was during world war 1 when Ottoman Turkey was at its weakest point. Russia, Britain, and France tried to take control of the Bosporus straits and other Turkish straits alongside Constantinople. Russia hasn’t forgotten that defeat. And Putin won’t take the risk of facing a modern Turkish military in Syria, especially if Russia is to do it alone (without Iran’s help). most of the Russian forces in Syria will be destroyed in the first few days of conflict even if Turkey were to use drones alone. The Bosporus will also be closed and Russian forces in the Mediterranean will be overwhelmed by Turkey’s navy (which actually dominates the Mediterranean). Such a war will weaken both Russia and Turkey and effectively end Russian’s presence in the Middle East. So, while SouthFront and TheSaker and MoonofAlabama will sing everyday about how mighty the Russian military is, they know that Russia cannot defeat the Turkish military in any conventional war, be it in Syria, the Mediterranean or black see.
SYRIA APPROVES US PLAN TO PROVIDE GAS, ELECTRICITY FOR LEBANON https://southfront.org/syria-approves-us-plan-to-provide-gas-electricity-for-lebanon/
What a spectacular development! This new Russian/American deal deserves a good analysis of what may be going on behind the scenes. I’ll attempt to dissect what’s happening to the Russian-Iranian-Syrian alliance. Hezbollah and Iran need to improve or at least maintain its image in the eyes of the Lebanese people. Iran and Hezbollah have taken steps to relief Lebanon of its oil troubles by sending tankers of oil to Lebanon in the past weeks. The U.S and Israel both refrained from interfering with Iran’s oil shipment in order to not make America look like an enemy of the Lebanese people. At the same time, Iran looks like the savior of Lebanon by providing much needed gas at a cheap rate. So why would Russia agree to this plan by America to diminish the role of Hezbollah and Iran with regards to oil in Lebanon? Secondly, why would Russia agree to a deal that represents an economic setback for Iran? Unlike Assad, Russia knows that Iran is the cause of Syria’s problem. Iran’s shipment of weapons to Hezbollah through Syria was and still is the major reason why the Anglozionists targeted Syria for destruction. This war is all about cutting off Hezbollah from Iran and then weakening Hezbollah and possibly eliminate it by all means possible (including by inciting the Lebanese against Hezbollah and possibly starting a civil war). This new deal to ship oil through Syria will hurt Iran and Hezbollah terribly in Lebanon. It’ll make Iran and Hezbollah insignificant regarding oil (Oil is the only remaining aspect of Lebanon that Iran and Hezbollah can help with, and thus, shore up their public image). This means that Russia is willing to throw Iran and Hezbollah under the bus to maintain Assad’s rule in Syria.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR ASSAD? Well, it’s highly unlikely to lead to a recognition of the Assad regime by the West. This is because of the Kurdish question and the Iran-Hezbollah corridor. However, Assad will reap some moderate financial benefits and maybe an easing of some sanctions. America wants to divide Syria and use the Kurds against Turkey, Iran, and Assad’s part of Syria. The problem for America is that both Russia and Turkey will not allow a Kurdistan in Syria. If America is going to recognize Assad’s rule, then America must give up its Kurdistan project. This will neutralize the Kurdish threat for Turkey, Syria, and Iran. Recognizing the Assad government is highly likely to leave the Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon link open, thus defeating all America’s designs in that part of the Middle East. America simply cannot sacrifice its Syrian ambitions in exchange for transporting gas to Lebanon via Syria – EXCEPT IF RUSSIA CAN GUARANTEE THAT THE IRAN-HEZBOLLAH CORRIDOR WILL BE CUT.
The problem for Russia is that Iran has infested Syria with militias. Attempting to dislodge these militias from Syria will lead to another major war against Assad. Russia cannot afford such a scenario. Making a deal with Iran to withdraw its militias is also impossible as that would mean sacrificing Hezbollah. The mission of these Iran-backed Syrian militias is first to secure and keep the Iran-Hezbollah link open. Their second mission is to help Assad stay in power.
WHAT DOES THIS ASSAD-PUTIN-BIDEN DEAL MEAN FOR TURKEY?
First, an easing of pressure on Assad is bad news for Idlib and Turkey. It will embolden Russia to be more aggressive towards Idlib while symultaneously giving Assad access to more resources. If the deal leads to a recognition of the Assad regime (highly unlikely due to reasons mentioned above), then Turkey will have to withdraw from Syria (provided the Kurds agree to disarm and be ruled by Assad). If America agrees to a deal with Russia that disarms the Kurds, Turkey will have to negotiate handing over Idlib back to Assad. Considering that the U.S cannot abandon its Syria ambitions, it’ll be childish to think that this deal paves way for the recognition of Assad by America. What Turkey can do is wait and see what Biden and Putin do with the Kurds.
WHAT DOES THIS DEAL MEAN FOR RUSSIA? First, it’ll cause frictions between Russia and Iran. This will affect Russia’s ambitions in Syria because Assad may have hostile Iran-backed forces in his own part of Syria. Iran has provided cheap foot-soldiers for Russia’s mission in Syria. Iran can withdraw this support any moment or even turn it against Assad and Russia. If this happens, Putin may find himself in a difficult position where Russia will be forced to deploy more ground troops from the Russian armed forces – thus, increasing the cost in blood and treasure for Russia. Will the Russian public tolerate more body bags coming home from Syria? Very unlikely.
WHAT BOTH RUSSIA AND AMERICA CAN DO TO ACHIEVE ALL OR PART OF THEIR GOALS
Russia can turn a blind eye to American and Israeli strike military attack throughout Syria to root out Iran’s militias. On the other hand, America must persuade the Kurds to disarm and be governed by Assad – maybe similar to the position of the Kurds in Iraq. Any U.S/Russian agreement that does not disarm the Kurds will see Turkey launcing military attacks against armed Kurdish groups in Syria. This will happen as soon as the U.S withdraws from Syria. It will also pit Turkey against Russia and the Kremlin will attempt to control all of Syria’s airspace. I think it would lead to a shootout between Turkish and Russian forces. America would love that. A war with Turkey is certainly not in Putin’s agenda as it will ruin all Russian gains in Syria and pose unacceptable risks to the lives of Russian servicemen in Syria. Putin can easily solve this problem by making sure that the Kurds are completely disarmed. If America abandons the Kurds like it did the Afghan government, then this would be a very realistic goal for Russia (to easily disarm the Kurds, thereby preventing any clashes with Turkey).
This could be Putin’s game: sacrificing Iran’s militias and influence in both Syria and Lebanon just to restore Assad’s rule of Syria. It’s a very realistic goal for Putin. The biggest loser will be Iran, as it’s Syrian and Lebanon arm will be cut off. The next biggest loser will be Turkey as it will be forced to give Idlib back to Assad. I do not think Turkey will fight over Idlib after such a deal. Russia is highly unlikely to win any shooting war with Turkey in Syria. The last war Russia fought against Turkey ended in a Turkish victory. Read up on the battle of Gallipoli. It was fought between Turkey on the one hand and Russia, Britain, and France on the other hand. This was during world war 1 when Ottoman Turkey was at its weakest point. Russia, Britain, and France tried to take control of the Bosporus straits and other Turkish straits alongside Constantinople. Russia hasn’t forgotten that defeat. And Putin won’t take the risk of facing a modern Turkish military in Syria, especially if Russia is to do it alone (without Iran’s help). most of the Russian forces in Syria will be destroyed in the first few days of conflict even if Turkey were to use drones alone. The Bosporus will also be closed and Russian forces in the Mediterranean will be overwhelmed by Turkey’s navy (which actually dominates the Mediterranean). Such a war will weaken both Russia and Turkey and effectively end Russian’s presence in the Middle East. So, while SouthFront and TheSaker and MoonofAlabama will sing everyday about how mighty the Russian military is, they know that Russia cannot defeat the Turkish military in any conventional war, be it in Syria, the Mediterranean or black see.
Bingo! That means that Iran allies with Turkey and Syrian and Iraqi militias and they form the Islamic alliance.
This should have been the case, but Iran has been pushing sectarian policies from the onset. Iran’s sectarian policies in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon alienated both Turkey and Pakistan, leading these two countries to view Iran as a threat to their own domestic Sunni Muslim majorities. If Turkey could have an official alliance with Shiite Azerbaijan, it means Turkey can still have the same kind of alliance with Iran, but under favorable conditions. Unfortunately, I think it’s too late.
The wars in Syria and Iraq were not sectarian. First of all, many Sunnis support Assad. Secondly, Turkey and Iran supported the Iraqi Shia government. Pakistan did the same. In Syria, Shias are only 3%.