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Written by Pietro Pinter, a Doctor in International Relations, author of italian-language geopolitics blog inimicizie.com
Something very serious has started in Israel, which will lead to a conflict on a level not seen since the one with Hezbollah in 2006, and perhaps even higher. Happening on the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, it is probably no coincidence.
Militants from various Hamas-linked Palestinian factions have managed to infiltrate Israeli defences and attack a number of police and IDF positions in villages near the Gaza Strip. The initial successes – the capture of military vehicles and even at least one Merkava tank – make a strong response by Tel Aviv – which has already declared a state of war against Hamas and its affiliated factions – mandatory.
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Meanwhile, the other Palestinian factions mobilise, and the mosques in Jerusalem incite jihad through their muezzins.
That this is happening now is also a result of the geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf, which has weakened Israel’s position. Saudi-iranian normalization made clear that the time would soon come for Tel Aviv to choose between difficult options (giving up something to normalise, or taking drastic measures against Palestine and its Arab population).
The time has come, we will know the answer soon.
One of the crucial turning points now will be the reaction and of Hezbollah in the north – which still remains firm – and clearly of the other regional actors such as the Gulf monarchies, Syria, Egypt, Turkey, Iran. The potential for a conflict not only within Israel and the Palestinian territories exists. Remember that Israel has an undeclared nuclear deterrent.
Palestinian forces have taken control of seven population centres around the Gaza Strip, the IDF bulletin reports. A control that cannot reasonably be maintained in the face of the armoured advance that Israel is about to launch, having already recaptured some positions. The main question is what will happen when the IDF enters the Gaza perimeter, and (if) what other actors will mobilise.
Both Turkey and Egypt have taken a (at least overtly) neutralist stance in their public statements. Recently, an unspoken understanding had led to the elimination of the Muslim Brotherhood from both the ranks of Hamas and the Turkish political scene, under pressure from Egypt. This has led to a rapprochement and normalisation of diplomatic relations between Ankara and Cairo – two capitals that have tended to be hostile since the victory of political Islam in Turkey – centred precisely on Palestine.
According to Israeli media Cairo warned Tel Aviv not to occupy the Gaza Strip. Possible retaliation, depending on the source, ranges from generic “consequences” to predicting Hezbollah’s entry into the conflict.
Iran through government officials declares – not surprisingly – its full support for the Palestinians. The European and North American chancelleries, on the other hand, issue statements of unconditional support for Israel. Ukraine supports Israel aswell, while Russia urges for immediate de-escalation.
Even Saudi Arabia joins the Turkish-Egyptian position of calling for “an immediate de-escalation”, while assigning full responsibility to Israel for what has happened.
Naturally, what is happening will have strong repercussions on the normalisation agreement with Israel that is being worked on more and more intensively. The possible scenarios are very different among them. Two extremes:
– A replay of the Kippur War: a war that started with the Palestinians in a position of strength, ended thanks to pressure from external actors before their total defeat. The possibility of a peace agreement similar to that of 1973 opens up
– Palestinian action highlights the contradictions and nips any possibility of a “historic compromise” in the bud. Israel must increase its control over the Palestinian territories by every possible means to ensure its own security, but remains isolated in the region.
The political situation in Saudi Arabia and Israel also imposes enormous caution on the respective governments in their bilateral relations. In Riyadh, normalisation with Iran has come at a cost, which will be difficult for the hardline Wahabbist wing – the one that took control of the great mosque in Mecca in 1979 and forged the current modus vivendi between the Al-Saud monarchy and the Sunni clergy – to digest. In Israel, on the other hand, one of the “toughest” coalitions on Arab-Israeli relations in a long time is supporting the current government, the result of a compromise between Nethanyahu’s Likud and minor nationalist and orthodox parties.
The strategy outlined by Nethanyahu now is the following:
– Liberate the territories lost so far
– Reinforce external borders and potential crisis areas to prevent other actors from joining the war
– Make those responsible pay an exorbitant price
Regarding the first point, advanced elements of the IDF are operating on the front line while others are mobilizing. A video shows fighting in Sderot, the largest settlement the Palestinian militants have entered, that as of now seems to be back into israeli control.
As for the second, the border with Jordan – where some tribal and political formations are urging their militants to ‘march to the border’ – has been closed, and the army has mobilised on the Golan Heights, on the Syrian border. It seems that the IDF is conducting exercises with live ammunition, with the clear aim of deterring actions from Syria and Lebanon.
The third point is the crucial one: a ground operation in Gaza has already been declared by the IDF, while air operations have already begun. This is the point at which the involvement – both diplomatic and military – of external actors will become stronger and more likely.
It should also be noted that the Israeli defence minister has pointed to Iran as being directly responsible for the attack, and has announced that the country will pay a high price. But what that will precisely entail?
From a military point of view:
– This is the first time Israel has even temporarily lost territory, since the 2005 Gaza withdrawal (which although ’caused’ by the Palestinians was still an Israeli choice). The IDF lost at least two military bases on the Gaza border, with tanks and armoured vehicles inside, from what the footage shows.
– The first destruction of a Merkava tank since the 2006 war with Hezbollah. The first ever of a Merkava equipped with the Trophy active protection system, introduced around 2010, which over the years has protected Israeli tanks from dozens of anti-tank missiles, even in high-intensity operations. Simple as it is as a tactic, not even one of the most advanced armies in the world has yet managed to find a truly effective solution to protect tanks from bombs dropped by small commercial drones. The various cages, tyres, wooden and cardboard constructions seen in Ukraine and Syria have made many ‘laugh’, but they perform a real function.
– Israel opens to mobilisation of ‘hundreds of thousands’ of reservists and declares a state of emergency throughout the country. Officials declare that the war will last for ‘weeks’.
Something very different from the usual clashes – however harsh – between Hamas/JI and Israel of the past 15 years. As much as the correlation of forces undoubtedly favours, and to a large extent, the Israelis, what happened today is bound to have a traumatic effect, and not only because of the brutal episodes of violence that have been circulating online.
Fifty years after the Yom Kippur War – a few days before, Sharon derided as unrealistic the possibility that the Egyptians could cross the Suez Canal – Tel Aviv once again finds itself having underestimated its adversaries. Conclusions will have to be drawn from this.
i hear the street dogs of gaza have more intelligence than mossad
the jewish gang is already begging for ammunition in washington because they are running out of rockets for their patriot system!
the iron dome didn’t work against saddam’s scrap missiles, what fun will that be when iranian drones patrol over tel aviv.
it’s strange, the west is losing in ukraine, and now their antiquated technique does not work in israel either.
no begging, they control usa through federal reserve. usa is a massive colony of israel
poor usa taxpayers…. another client state shootin 4 million dollar missiles at homemade drones, and then of course demanding that more missiles must arrive yesterday. now the only political fight will be who gets the expensive missiles from the us taxpayer, as the peace faction just went to war.
the mayor of sderot, alon davidi, is quoted in the times of israel as saying the hamas leadership are animals who should be wiped out. and the west things israel is a democracy? israel has lurched so far to the right that even suella braverman would be embarrassed by israeli political discourse.
then again maybe not…
israelis have been callign palestinians and arabs animals for over a hundred years – their religion considers all non-jews cattle or “goyim” – nothing more than animals. this is how zionists view white europeans and all other non jews also
why do so many of them have rat-like features? how can they call other folks “beastly”?
netanyahu has just promised to level gaza. let’s hope he succeeds. it will be a great day for the free world when that sordid den of muslim pigs is wiped off the face of the earth!!
little zio nazi again using nazi and inhuman vocabulary? not really surprising. and big luck for the zionists that till now neither hisbollah, syrian shias, and iran still didnt step in, otherweise the effect would be factor 100 and whole zionististan burning.
ahh the ever so intelligent and intellectual comments from the clueless gimp who tries so desperately to sound tough, tomb!
the time has come.
the time has come? for you to finally end your life and rid us off you pathetic stupidity? go for it!! i’m sure your mommy and daddy went the same way after realising what a foul little turd they had raised?
no, tomb just warned kikes like you not to goo too far as yankees have too much internal strife to give you all the neccessary backup for you to win this conflict. if i were you, i would proceed very cautiously with a pinch of wisdom. unless this entire show is mossad arrangement from the start as hamas is a mossad cretion.
when i want your opinion morton, i will fucking beat it out of you. right after i’ve raped your bitch arse whore of a mother, then cut her throat before burning her alive.
sounds more like hamas then israel to me you sure about your identity?
(rape innocent + sodomy) * (sacrifice + burned offering) = [ zio nazi ]
islam = i steal lie and murder
we understand that you steal and lie. it’s in your blood.
i doubt you understand very little lambert. just another sad deluded anti-semitic fuckwit repeating the same old thing over and over again in a desperate attempt to sound tough.
omg you are dumb as dogsht.
you dont even know what anti-semetic means you moron.
95% of jews on earth are khazarian and ashkenazi you brain dead clown….. that means tey are not semetic lol
you like scking bbc do you?? only real jews in the world are black…. go and learn what a semetic person is you come swallowing buffoon
it’s spelt anti-semitic.
at least learn how to spell the word you gormless prick.
now who’s the dumb motherfucker?
epstein was one of yours, rotschild is one of yours, soros is one of yours, harry weinstain is one of yours and so on…
more like: i-slam kikes like little bitches hahahahaaaaaaa
the spudhead m. deserves to wither like the blight of the irish famine of the 1840’s. not only noxious but terminally boring.
past the time for south front to stem and leave such asses.
you sound like a true zionist nazi. very much like those in ukraine fighting for kiev regime. and you will meet the very same fate, zio-commissar. your people invented sodomy, at least it’s highly praised in talmud. take a close look people of the world, zionazi promises to rape people in the world. bear that in mind when you have to decide which den of vipers to nuke.
oh look. now we have lambert joining the ever growing throng of southfront jew hating bullshitters who do nothing but repeat the same old crap every time like a fucking stuck record!! and what cave do you dwell in sand-nigger?
we wonder how much a nasty little troll like the leprechaun “murphy” is paid for its contributions. a penny per post, perhaps.
times are hard, after all – the desperation is apparent, with half-wit leprechaun “murphy” being all over the forum like a cheap suit.
even a half-wit with no morals or life skills living in its mother’s basement has to make a living somehow.
‘we wonder how much a nasty little troll like the leprechaun “murphy” is paid for its contributions. a penny per post, perhaps’
well if that’s the case, you must be a fucking millionaire. maybe you could spend the the money on a proper decent education? you sound like you desperately need it.
‘even a half-wit with no morals or life skills living in its mother’s basement has to make a living somehow.’
well sure, you’ve somehow managed to do it.
what’s your name and address?
ask your momma. she’s just come round for her weekly buttfuck. i prefer to do her from behind as that way i don’t have to look at the ugly bitch
all 2.35 million palestinians in gaza? nice to see you longing for holocaust.
but of course its fine when palestinians long to see israel wiped off the map?
fuck off you ignorant gimp.
correct, the fact that you are still posting here means hamas freedom fighters still have a lot of work to do. the whole free world would like to see a world free from zionist terrorists.
they still have a lot of work to do? ha ha ha!! oh man you really are comedy gold aren’t you?!! judging by what i’m reading they’ve already lost and the brave israeli’s are kicking their muslim backsides back to the their sordid shithole of palestine where they will be bombed to a big pile of rubble and bloodied body parts!!
brave progeny of global banksters, criminals and lunatics/psychos like zev sabatai. remember lebanon of 2006. we saw then a huge piles of merkavas burning to a crisp just like leopards in ukraine.
yep, as i thought. just another deranged individual, living in their own deluded fantasy world. southfront really has been full of them in the last day or so. thank you for proving my point yet again, fag.
it would be a lot different, murphy, if israel had stayed within its un mandated boundaries. and even then, what right did they have to steal part of palestine?
good post karl.btw there is even more sensation & breaking news around because a formerly undiscoverd song from elvis presley is hitting the internet & going viral. the last song he wrote before death. the title of it is: “truth about the jews !! ” so i guess he too was killed like m. jackson and jfk by these hook-nosed scum on two legs !! here the song http://rlu.ru/3a1cx please re-upload spread it everywhere.
holocaust? lol there was no such thing as the holocaust. and the jews funded hitler because they jews loved hitler.
now the only thing jews are are inbred europeans.
the real jews died out years ago. the only ones left who are real semetic jews are black and theres only 10,000’sof them left.
thats why isareli women around the world love bbc… they are trying to find their culture away from pathetic girly jewish modern men/lgbt fagots
oh fuck me. if there was ever an award for the most deluded, deranged and totally gormless post ever written on the internet, you’ve just fucking won it hands down. congratulations. the prize is to have a bullet put in your head to put you out of your fucking misery
murphy stein berg. kike detected
john, fucking ignorant cretin detected.
can’t you tell you are not welcome here asshole ? you are a fucking loser leftist crybaby. grow a pair.
like i give a fuck. i come here to be entertained by the deluded ramblings of deranged jew hating scum and to watch them squirm and totally lose their shit when they are triggered. you’ve just proved that point ten-fold, so thanks.
lol just go to tel aviv- the home of gay night clubs…. literally more israeli men go to gay bars than straight bars. every gay jewish club in israel is fully booked every night. hey, jew men love scking dck. thats why the population never increased and they are now extinct lol
gas yourself, jew
you first, goat-fucker
actually hebrews were fucking goats while sacrificing children to moloch/renpham. six sided star of molch aka satan. you are a satanic people rooted in pagan worship of moloch and consider all non jews animals (goyim). the goyim are waking up, holocaust 2.0 on the way, kike
oh look, another one has joined!! you guys really are like breeding rats aren’t you?!! let’s see what predictable jew hating bullshit you come up with, fuckwit!!
the whole free world stands in solidarity against unprovoked jewish aggression who have been looting and raping innocent palestinian civilians, including children. #freepalestine from decades of oppression at the hands of savage jewish terrorists.
“the whole free world stands in solidarity against unprovoked jewish aggression who have been looting and raping innocent palestinian civilians, including children. #freepalestine from decades of oppression at the hands of savage jewish terrorists.”
wow, you know you are on southfront when you read utterly deluded drivel such as that. i actually pity you sunny. not that scum such as yourself actually deserves any pity.
go fight for ukraine you moron..get another booster while your at it.
oh please. stop trying to sound tough you ignorant shit-talking fag. i’ve heard it all before from the likes of scum such as yourself and i’m not at all impressed.
raping eh? there is always this projection when western forces win over savages. the savages project their own desire to rape. there is a video of the woman zip tied. she may have been actually raped but that is ok with you as she is israeli
the unprovoked invasion of palestine and the murder of hundreds of thousands of palestinians is fine with you because they’re not israeli.
but you celebrate when israeli women and children are killed, kidnapped and tortured? once again sunny, you are just proving what a deluded, twisted little mind you have.
i fully agree with your post. it’s time to exterminate the kikes ! especially now that they tried to exterminate mankind with their mrna-genetic-poison vaccines !!!
there’s more to this than meets the eye.
israelis are among the most injected populations on the planet – with the excess all-cause mortality to match.
seems they’re just as expendable as the goyim when it comes to the injections.
yet another nato voice for mass murder.
oh yawn. get back on your horse roy rogers and fuck off back to the desert with the other sand-dwelling, goat-fucking rag headed twerps.
hey mckikelstani, don’t forget your meds and to have your nigloid lover use a condom for your nightly s+m sessions. how much does soros pay you to be his shitposting suck-boy ?
nope, didn’t get that. try engaging your brain the next time you write a post. i can wait…..
this is not upto your mark, south front. a poorly articulated article. could be removed from your site.
just because you don’t like the article, it doesn’t have to be bad!
there is no solution, until the world understand that khazars are of khazaria origin and that they are not semites.
palestinians are real genuine indigenous semites.
but they are not indigenous or only partly. they all came there from syria and egypt in the 1920s mostly.
they are the remnants of the ancient people called philister – that why the name of their current state is philistine, falestine resp. palestine.
just imagine that…
update: “the taliban asks iran for passage across country to assist hamas in annihilation of israel – after joe biden armed taliban with $80 billion in us weapons and supplies”
-thegatewaypundit
de gaulle, june 1967 : “the jews, hitherto widely dispersed and who had remained what they had always been, in other words, an elite people, sure of themselves and dominating, once they were together again in the lands of their former grandeur might transform into a burning, conquering ambition the heart-moving wishes voiced over nineteen long centuries: “next year in jerusalem.”
latest update, death toll on israeli past 300,
and even more palestinians slaughtered. thousands more to come in the next week or so. maybe they’ll slaughter your entire family daniel? a younger brother or sister? that will really make you sob like a little girl won’t it?
now the jewish oligarch in ukraine will learn how it feels if you are not the top priority when deliveries will be redirected to israel. and china is laughing since taiwan will get even less.
the jews are nothing but liars, swindlers and thieves
islam = i lie steal and murder
lampshade soapbar kike. 6 trillion wasn’t enough funny how your israeli ngo groups import millions of muslims into europe but cry when gaza resistance tries to liberate their own territory u jews cry out in pain against muslims while using them to invade europe double standards. which is why you belong in ovens
yawn. same old incomprehensible bullshit. when will you pathetic jew hating cry babies come up with something original?! actually, forget that. you don’t have the intelligence to be original. i’ve seen more intelligent things lying on their backs on the bottom of ponds.
100 plus jewish/israeli ngo groups pushing muslim refugees into europe and america is a fact. gtvflyers.com cry more, kikeberg murphysteinowitzbaum
errr what? you’re just speaking in tongue now aren’t you sand-nigger?!!!
ar trebui sa ii ingrijoreze pe cumparatorii de tehnica militara? tehnica lor pare f buna pe hârtie… rachetele n au fost oprite… dronele tot au cazut pe tancuri…. am senzatia ca au si drone cyborg vizibile pe radar dar greu de dat jos… au mai fost drone din astea in golan acum multi ani…
idf losing dozens of towns, hundreds of soldiers and high ranking officers to gaza which doesn’t even have an army or tanks or artillery. no airforce,no navy.lol
and palestine will be reduced to rubble in a week or so, with thousands of palestinian pigs slaughtered. with any luck, they’ll all be friends and family of yours john. then you really will cry like a pathetic little bitch!!!
i sense some rage and hopium with your desperate comment, seek therapy you are rigt that idf will probably slaughter thousands of innocent palestinians in their bombing campaign which has been going on for decades, which is another reason which caused this war in addition to the theft of palestinian land
see john, it’s comments like that which just prove how deluded and deranged you anti- semitic scum truly are and you all are just living your pitiful useless lives in a fantasy!! it would be quite humorous if it wasn’t so fucking pathetic!!
look fuckchops.. you are the fantasy dweller, you are not making your point, you are a faggot jew lover, so fuck off. you are the enemy here. you will never win an argument. what are they paying you to spin your arrogant usa attitude bs ? waste of effort. and you don’t have the cells to realize that. oh well, go kiss some jew ass. faggot. that’s all you are good at.
awww. sounds like poor little vega is angry and upset. what’s the matter fruitcake? mummy and daddy left you all alone and you’re scared? or maybe they are just not giving you enough attention? perhaps you were bullied at at school. that would account for how you’ve ended up a sad little insignificant jew hating gimp.
without usa or european rothschild money, israel project will collapse fast. and it’s already crumbling without direct usa/european intervention againts gaza which has no army, tanks, or artillery
‘murphystein’ oh wow. that’s a good one. did your mommy help come up with that?
313 palestinian pigs now slaughtered and the number constantly rising!! yes!!!
300 idf taken out 300 occupier illegal settlers eliminated by gaza resistance which has no official army, no tanks, air force, air defense, or no artillery cry
the elimination of israel and the jewish race would be the biggest benefit to humanity ever.
‘the elimination of islam and muslims would be the biggest benefit to humanity ever.’
there, i’ve correct your sentence for you. you’re welcome, fag.
why aren’t you over there fighting for the jews ? huh ? because you are a loser pussy faggot that talks big shit. leftist asshole pos.
yawn. you’re boring me vega. you’re just another sad, little jew hating soul who is bitter and angry at the world because he chose the wrong religion and now spends his pitiful existence on southfront, a haven for anti-semitic morons like himself, trying so desperately to sound tough.
gtvflyers.com to find out about the truth of jewish zionist supremacy and control over the usa and world
visit gtvflyers.com to learn more about jewish zionist supremacy control over usa and the world shocking facts for all
looks to me , there are a lot of de-population projects around the world..
totally agree with dr. pietro pinter, just add that israel will have a day by day changing environment, and too many options or possibilities are in the table on how this will develop. also you have to measure the power of arab propaganda on the equation. really messy situation. also usa didn’t wanted nethanyahu on israel, and now we can see war in the middleeast just started yesterday on october 7th 2023.
it is fascinating how in this post-orwellian age, there is so much doublethink. russians who object to police in a monastery don’t see police in a mosque. agreement to keep the police out would be opposed by american christians who oppose all sanctuary. doublethink abounds.
those who took control of the great mosque in mecca in 1979 were not the hardline wing of the wahabbists, but the descendants of all the tribes killed by the bloody bin saud with lawrence’s weapons – before they were turned against the ottomans.
hate begets hate. know that when you ambush your enemy, you are only ambushing yourself. when you kill someone, you are killing yourself. heed my words, o man