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After a short period of de-escalation, the Middle East appears to be heading towards another round of fighting as Israel escalates against the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Syria and Iran.
The escalation began from Gaza on February 10, when Hamas said it would delay hostage release until further notice due to what it claimed were “Israeli violations” of the ceasefire agreement, which was brokered by the United States, Egypt and Qatar.
In response, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on February 11 Israel will resume “intense fighting” in Gaza if Hamas doesn’t release “our hostages” by noon of February 15. The threat echoed a demand made by U.S. President Donlad Trump a day earlier.
On February 13, Hebrew media reported that Israel sent a message to Hamas through mediators Egypt and Qatar that the hostage release-ceasefire deal will continue if the group releases three more hostages on February 15. While Hamas stressed its commitment to the deal, it is still unclear if the group will go on with the swap.
Meanwhile, escalation was also reported on the front with Hezbollah. On February 13, Hebrew media said that the U.S. had authorized a “long-term” Israeli troop presence in southern Lebanon. This represents a violation of the ceasefire agreement, which calls for the withdrawal of both Israel and Hezbollah from southern Lebanon. The ceasefire, which extended a month earlier, is set to end on February 18.
Israel’s Kan public broadcaster said that Israeli forces have begun establishing the five outposts where it would like to remain after receiving approval from Washington. While establishing the new outposts, the troops are withdrawing from nearby Shiite villages, including in southeast Lebanon and the Mount Dov area, according to Kan. Hezbollah will not likely tolerate this.
Similarly, Israeli military radio reported on February 11 that Israeli forces had constructed nine military bases along the “buffer zone” inside occupied southern Syria extending from Mount Hermon in the Golan Heights to the border triangle in the south.
According to the radio station, Israel’s presence in Syria will go beyond 2025 with three brigades operating there. So far, Syria’s transitional government has remained silent on this issue.
Adding to tensions in the region, The Washington Post reported on February 13 that U.S. intelligence believes that Israel will likely launch a preemptive attack on Iran’s nuclear program by midyear.
Overall, the Middle East may be heading towards another round of fighting from the Gaza Strip to Lebanon and even Syria as a result of Israel’s attempts to expand. Any Israeli attack on Iran could have an even more serious ramification for the whole region.
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