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The Current State of Affairs
At present time, Israel’s top political leadership is in the state of outright hysteria regarding Lebanese Hezbollah. Senior Israeli officials have repeatedly claimed that Israel will not allow Hezbollah and Iran to concentrate its forces in border areas and to expand their influence in the region, particularly in Syria and Lebanon.
The already difficult situation in southern Lebanon and Syria was further complicated by the series of events, which contributed to the growing tensions in the region in November and early December. It started with a resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri announced from Saudi Arabia on November 7, continued with Saudi accusations of military aggression through missile supplies to Yemen against Iran and rose to a new level on December 6 when US President Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital sparking further escalation.
Some experts also said Israel, Saudi Arabia and the US are conspiring to start a new war in the region. In this light, “The Light of Dagan”, a major military exercise named in honour of the former Director of Foreign Intelligence Service of Israel, Mossad, Meir Dagan, was described as a part of the preparations for armed aggression against Lebanon.
The exercise lasted eleven days, from 4 to 14 September 2017, and involved tens of thousands of troops from all branches of service.
The exercise legend posited that terrorists attacked the village of Shavey Zion, fifteen kilometers from the Lebanese border and, together with hundreds of Hezbollah fighters from the Radwan units, carried out the invasion in the north, captured civilians and occupied the local synagogue. Their ultimate goal was to plant Hezbollah flag of the movement on Israeli soil and send a photo to Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. In response, Israel carried out the evacuation of civilians, then units of the IDF conducted a large-scale operation in southern Lebanon, which was carried out in three stages. The first stage was defensive, including a counter-attack and the deployment of additional units to counter the Hezbollah movements. The second stage consisted of launching an assault on southern Lebanon. The third phase pushed Hezbollah forces back into Lebanon. The exercises were held in southern Galilee to the south from Highway 85 Akko-Carmiel. The goal of the exercises was the full capitulation of the Hezbollah movement, “depriving them of their ability and willingness to resist”. According to the IDF command, the IDF excelled at these tasks.
The IDF Today
Currently the IDF in the regional scale is a formidable force with the budget of 15.9 bn USD.
According to the yearbook Military Balance 2017, IDF numbers 176 thousand servicemembers, of which 133 thousand are in the Army, 34 thousand in the Air Force, 9.5 thousand in the Navy. In addition, there are 465 thousand troops in reserve. The border police (MAGAV) may provide 8000 troops to assist the military.
Land forces are organized into three regional commands (North, Central, South), two armoured divisions, five territorial infantry divisions, three battalions of Special Forces, and a team of special operations forces. Overall they command a number of separate reconnaissance battalions, three tank brigades, three mechanized brigades (consisting of three mechanized battalions, a combat support battalion and a signal company), a mechanized brigade (consisting of five mechanized battalions), a separate mechanized brigade, two separate infantry battalions, an airborne brigade (composed of three airborne battalions, a combat support battalion and a signal company), and a training tank brigade. Three artillery brigades, three engineering battalions, two military police battalions, a company of sappers, a chemical protection battalion and a brigade of military intelligence provide battlefield support.
The Navy consists of a surface ship group, a submarine group, as well as a battalion of commandos.
The Israeli Air Force consist of two fighter squadrons, five attack squadrons, six mixed fighter-attack squadrons (plus two squadrons in reserve), an ASW squadron, a maritime patrol and support squadron (patrol and transport aircraft, tanker aircraft), two EW squadrons, an AWACS squadron, two squadrons of transport and tanker aircraft, two training squadrons, two squadrons of attack helicopters, four squadrons of transport helicopters, an air ambulance division and three squadrons of UAVs. Additionally, on December 6, Israel officially declared its fleet of nine F-35I warplanes operational.
It is believed that Israel has nuclear weapons. The number of nuclear warheads is debatable, but its delivery vehicles include F-15 and F-16 fighter jets, the Jericho-2 ballistic medium-range missiles, and Dolphin/Tanin class diesel-electric submarines capable of carrying cruise missiles.
There are nine orbital military and dual-purpose satellites:
- Three Amos-type satellites.
- One reconnaissance satellite with remote sensing of the Earth of the EROS type, located on the sun-synchronous orbit.
- Four optical reconnaissance satellites of the Ofeq type (No. 7, 9, 10 and 11), located in the low earth orbit.
- One radar-reconnaissance satellite of the TecSAR-1 type, located in low earth orbit.
IDF Problems
The IDF at the moment is a unique and astounding combination of nuclear weapons with delivery vehicles, an arsenal of equipment produced in the 1960s and of modern weapons on par with the leading world powers. This combination has its drawbacks and they do not make themselves wait for long.
For example:
- In September 2016, during the removal of the machine gun from a tank at the training base in Shizafon in the south of Israel several soldiers were severely injured.
- On 5 October 2016 on the approach to the Ramon airbase in southern Israel the pilot was killed as a result of the ejection from the F-16.
- In July 2017 during the course of an exercise, due to his own negligence Lieutenant David Golovenchick was shot dead by a soldier.
- On 8 August 2017 an AH-64 helicopter crashed at the Ramon airbase, as a result the pilot was killed, and others sustained injuries.
- On 9 August 2017 during IDF operations in the suburbs of Bethlehem, an Israeli soldier suffered wounds of moderate severity as a result of friendly fire.
- At the end of August 2017 ten soldiers were lightly injured at the Shizafon base in southern Israel after a smoke grenade exploded.
- At the beginning of September 2017 an Israeli soldier was severely injured by a grenade that exploded during military training on the base in the south of the country.
These incidents indicate that the Israeli military has serious shortcomings in the realm of personnel proficiency and equipment maintenance.
The Gideon Plan
In order to give the IDF the ability to confront modern threats from various armed groups, while implementing budget cuts and minimizing the number of accidents, Israel adopted the five-year Gideon Plan in 2015.
Main Provisions of the Plan:
- Reduction of the number of professional soldiers and officers to 40,000.
- Reduction of military service of male draftees from 36 to 32 months. (Reduction of military service of female soldiers from the draft is not considered so far).
- Reduction of the age of commanders. If the average age of the regiment staff officers, including the commander of the regiment, was 35 to 37 years, now for these positions officers from the age of 32 will be appointed. The staff officers of the brigade, including the brigade commander, 40 to 42 years instead of 45 to 46 years respectively.
- The reduction in the number of reservists to 100 thousand. The reservists who will remain in service will be trained and armed as support troops.
- Reducing the number of artillery and light infantry brigades.
- Eliminating two army divisions.
- Structures such as the Education Corps, Military Rabbinate, Chief Reserve Officer, the Chief of Staff’s Advisor on Women’s Affairs, Army Radio and the Military Censor must undergo reduction and optimization. The command of the Northern District will be merged with the command of the land forces.
- Creation of the cyber-troops. Jerusalem Post, citing a senior officer of the IDF, reported at the beginning of 2017 that it was decided to postpone establishing the cyber-troops center.
- Bolstering of the Navy group through the procurement and construction of surface ships and a submarine.
- Rearming the Air Force by purchasing the American F-35 and UAVs of American and local production. This includes the retirement of an air-force squadron, and the early retirement of F-16 multirole fighter aircraft.
- Ending deferment to students in yeshivas (religious high schools) is not mentioned in this plan.
These provisions indicate IDF’s leaders had decided to focus on transforming it from conscript army to a professional one, staffed with a large number of trained soldiers as well as young and promising officers, capable to implement and employ in practice new ideas. The fact that the command of the Northern District will be united with the command of the land forces indicates that this area (south of Lebanon and Hezbollah) is given special attention. The new army will be armed with more modern equipment and thus will be able to withstand modern threats.
The Israeli Missile Defence Systems vs. the Hezbollah Missile Arsenal
Knowing that Hezbollah will not invade Israel itself, its most capable units are involved in the fighting in Syria, and Hezbollah’s armored forces are in the development stages, for the Israeli military the biggest threat is Hezbollah’s missile arsenal.
Israel has a multi-layer missile defense network, which includes the following systems: Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow and Patriot. Furthermore, a ship-mounted version of Iron Dome [Tamir-Adir] was declared fully operational for use on a gunship off coasts on November 27. However, so far, it has been installed only on one vessel, the Sa’ar 5-class INS Lahav.
Click to see the full-size image
There are 17 batteries of MIM-23 I-HAWK available for air defence but presumably due to their obsolescence they are not in active service.
For comparison purposes, the cost of Qassam type rockets of Palestinian production according to Israeli experts is in the neighbourhood of a few hundred dollars. Rockets for the BM-21 Grad cost few thousand. The cost of production of ballistic, anti-ship and medium-range missiles is unknown, but may be assumed that they do not exceed several hundred thousand dollars.
Of course, human life is priceless and the potential loss in this case from Grad rockets, not to mention Scud and Iranian missiles, exceeds the cost of the interceptor missile. While the Iron Dome control system will only launch missiles if incoming missiles are calculated to fall in residential areas, the cost balance is still not in Israel’s favor.
Scenarios for the Third Lebanon War
Over time, IDF’s military effectiveness had declined. Israel has won the 1967 fully and unconditionally. The Egyptian and Syrian armies were dealt a powerful blow, and the Golan Heights, the Sinai Peninsula and the western shore of the river Jordan were occupied. The war of 1973 was won by Israel with heavy human and material losses; however, neither the Egyptian nor the Syrian army was completely defeated. In the 1982 war, where the IDF had numerical superiority, it had won a tactical victory but the task of reaching Beirut to link up with the right-wing Christian Phalangists was not completed. In the Second Lebanon War of 2006 due to the overwhelming numerical superiority in men and equipment the IDF managed to occupy key strong points but failed to inflict a decisive defeat on Hezbollah. The frequency of attacks in Israeli territory was not reduced; the units of the IDF became bogged down in the fighting in the settlements and suffered significant losses. There now exists considerable political pressure to reassert IDF’s lost military dominance and, despite the complexity and unpredictability of the situation we may assume the future conflict will feature two sides, IDF and Hezbollah. Based on the bellicose statements of the leadership of the Jewish state, the fighting will be initiated by Israel.
The operation will begin with a massive evacuation of residents from the settlements in the north and center of Israel. Since Hezbollah has agents within the IDF, it will not be possible to keep secret the concentration of troops on the border and a mass evacuation of civilians. Hezbollah units will be ordered to occupy a prepared defensive position and simultaneously open fire on places were IDF units are concentrated. The civilian population of southern Lebanon will most likely be evacuated. IDF will launch massive bombing causing great damage to the social infrastructure and some damage to Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, but without destroying the carefully protected and camouflaged rocket launchers and launch sites.
Hezbollah control and communications systems have elements of redundancy. Consequently, regardless of the use of specialized precision-guided munitions, the command posts and electronic warfare systems will not be paralyzed, maintaining communications including through the use of fibre-optic communications means. IDF discovered that the movement has such equipment during the 2006 war. Smaller units will operate independently, working with open communication channels, using the pre-defined call signs and codes.
Israeli troops will then cross the border of Lebanon, despite the presence of the UN peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon, beginning a ground operation with the involvement of a greater number of units than in the 2006 war. The IDF troops will occupy commanding heights and begin to prepare for assaults on settlements and actions in the tunnels. The Israelis do not score a quick victory as they suffer heavy losses in built-up areas. The need to secure occupied territory with patrols and checkpoints will cause further losses.
The fact that Israel itself started the war and caused damage to the civilian infrastructure, allows the leadership of the movement to use its missile arsenal on Israeli cities. While Israel’s missile defence systems can successfully intercept the launched missiles, there are not enough of them to blunt the bombardment. The civilian evacuation paralyzes life in the country. As soon IDF’s Iron Dome and other medium-range systems are spent on short-range Hezbollah rockets, the bombardment of Israel with medium-range missiles may commence. Hezbollah’s Iranian solid-fuel rockets do not require much time to prepare for launch and may target the entire territory of Israel, causing further losses.
It is difficult to assess the duration of actions of this war. One thing that seems certain is that Israel shouldn’t count on its rapid conclusion, similar to last September’s exercises. Hezbollah units are stronger and more capable than during the 2006 war, despite the fact that they are fighting in Syria and suffered losses there.
Conclusions
The combination of large-scale exercises and bellicose rhetoric is intended to muster Israeli public support for the aggression against Hezbollah by convincing the public the victory would be swift and bloodless. Instead of restraint based on a sober assessment of relative capabilities, Israeli leaders appear to be in a state of blood lust. In contrast, the Hezbollah has thus far demonstrated restraint and diplomacy.
Underestimating the adversary is always the first step towards a defeat. Such mistakes are paid for with soldiers’ blood and commanders’ careers. The latest IDF exercises suggest Israeli leaders underestimate the opponent and, more importantly, consider them to be quite dumb. In reality, Hezbollah units will not cross the border. There is no need to provoke the already too nervous neighbor and to suffer losses solely to plant a flag and photograph it for their leader. For Hezbollah, it is easier and safer when the Israeli soldiers come to them. According to the IDF soldiers who served in Gaza and southern Lebanon, it is easier to operate on the plains of Gaza than the mountainous terrain of southern Lebanon. This is a problem for armoured vehicles fighting for control of heights, tunnels, and settlements, where they are exposed to anti-armor weapons.
While the Israeli establishment is in a state of patriotic frenzy, it would be a good time for them to turn to the wisdom of their ancestors. After all, as the old Jewish proverb says: “War is a big swamp, easy to go into but hard to get out”.
Thanks for the Intelligence and Analyzes of this and the Video SF!
Well, I guess the bad guys are scared now.!
To be politically correct Bcbingham, you might have said ” Well, I guess the IDF bad guys and galls and the in between’s are scared now.! ”
Just a thought in these enlightened times. :)
Israel scared? Hahahaha, they have nukes! You Arabs should be scared, the world sees through your false bravado
hahahaha true enough.
yep, Israel is scared
Amazing wrap up of IDF.
IANF : israeli attacking nazi force.
The nazi israeli regime wants to attack Lebanon because Lebanon wants to defend against a nazi state ? The nazi israeli regime want to attack Syria because Syria wants to defend against a nazi state ?
Israel only use sunni islamist terrorist vs SAA as a part of his armed forces…and like in 2006 they failed again!…SAA only have to use P-800 onix cruise missile 2.5 mach to target Haifa without Israeli air defense can stop it!
Be just a bit more precise. Not all sunnis are extremists, they’re creating them, recruiting them brainwashed kids with all kinds of horror and terror to lost will to live, and to die for so called ‘higher purposes’. Talking from the first hand. I swear to dear God that Zionistic /Israeli/wahabie mental torture is utter Hell on Earth that inflicts unbearable spiritual/mental pain to all that are affected by it. Especially for younger boys 13-19 or 23-24 and above years old. No wonder that they insanely fight, actually wanting to die. No wonder they have so many suicidals that they use to break adversariy’s heavily guarded check points and fortifications. Just think about that psychological torture methods, that eventually turns absolutely normal person into children killing monstrosity. One thing is obvious: Same techniques has been used by Charles Manson, Jones, and Davidians, among others. All that, brainwashing stuff, as for Jones had been done by magicians named James Hydrics, who is also documented by Police as a child molester. Just take a break a think about that.
Seems like you are talking about America, a so-called Christian country, and its 223 years of invasions out of its just over 300 years of existence. Many millions of Indigenous slaughtered to steal their land for Christian belief in SUPREMACY and IN Vietnam,alone they lost 60,000 young American men and DESERVEDLY- so.Americans were the INVADERS -Par for the course.
Of course we don’t need to talk about 2 World Wars, Korea and millions dead !
“Onward CHRISTIAN soldiers,marching on to WAR” – A favorite song in those days. Notice it was NOT Muslims.
Presently UNITED STATES is suffering a suicide a day in their Military.
It is called “Reaping what you have sown”
I say that not all sunni are terrorist…but all terrorist are sunni!…of course reverend Jim Jones and many sect brainwash not only children..also adults!..like many terrorist gangs during 70s .. Baader Meinhof, ETA, IRA, Brigada Rossa..etc..Drugs bussiness is another way to Brainwash..but I also say that western powers have been acquiescent with suni terrorism since their target were to overthrow Gadafi and Al Assad..as well as separate Kosovo from Serbia!
They are not sunni nor Muslims at all! They claim that they are, but they aren’t! Like you’d like to say that you are astronaut, but you aren’t even graduated from high school! The thing is as follows. Pain that they inflicted to humanity is immense.
I agree EXCEPT when you included the IRA.
Just as the Israelis call Palestinians TERRORIST for FIGHTING for their own land AGAINST Ashkenazi FALSE Jewish,OCCUPIERS, the British were the OCCUPIERS of Ireland and CALLED my IRISH Brethren, Terrorists for fighting to REGAIN our land and YES I and my family come from IRISH Rebels.thankfully we finally won by 1949
Remember the British also considered the American Patriots as TERRORISTS or as they called the American Patriots – REBEL Traitors
To get away from that British evil Propaganda here is a site you may find very INFORMATIVE and interesting : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDndoQrqQys
100% – Even Hizbollah has a few thanks to Iran. The stupid ZioNazis will not see it coming.Tel Aviv and Haifa will be turned to glass if Hizbollah uses some blackmarket ukrainian nukes ontop of them Yakhonts/Oniks.
Honest assessment once again. You forgot to mention that as the Hezbollah-Israel war winds down, and as much as all of Israel gets bombed by Hezbollah missiles, the Syrian Arab Army can march into the occupied Syrian Golan Height, and take it back with Iranian support. It can declare that Syria has no territorial ambitions on any part of Israeli territory. It only want to take back what is legally and internationally recognized Syrian territory.
Let us finish second round. First round is about to end. Getting rid of all Wahabie sects from all over Syria, defeating fsa and securing border with Jordan and Israel. Second faze is to annihilate sdf. The third faze would be the Golan hights.
If Syria is wise it won’t provoke Israel and give them the war which this article says it so badly wants. To the contrary however, it is likely to be Syria/Iran who are desperate for war, if they so badly want the Golan Heights back that they are prepared to try and take it back by force. They should not make the mistake of confusing the capabilities of ISIS/Al Nusra with that of Israel which has a professional military force and will fight hard to retain ground. Syria also won’t have the backing of Russia in such an adventure, nor should they. Russia is far more concerned with exiting Syria at this point, than in stirring up the hornet’s nest by starting a war with Israel.
Considering that the above article downplayed Hizbollah’s 2006 fighting capabilities making it seem muted in contrast to the excellent blow by blow account of Alastair Crooke and Mark Perry (https://www.counterpunch.org/2006/10/12/how-hezbollah-defeated-israel/) or if you prefer the original article (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HJ12Ak01.html ) – for more info on Hizb’s electroonic warfare capabilities: (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HI09Ak01.html), don’t flatter yourself with Israeli supposed superiority – they had none – despite the second to none airforce that bombed civilian Leb infrastructure relentlessly, if for anything, but to turn the populace against Hizbollah – a foolish, murderous ploy which did not succeed (executed with US Bunker Busters). Its ground forces were successfully interdicted by a small contingent of Hizbollah operatives in the Southern Lebanese villages (which Israel was unable to penetrate more than about 5km from their Northern border) and in well known incidents, Hizbollah ATGM corps had a field day in what amounted to a shooting gallery of Merkavas. Israel deployed 60 000 troops in total, Hizbollah never needed to increase its deployment to more than 3000. Nasrallah never makes bellicose claims, so when he says, “there will be an invasion”, I pretty much thinks he means it. The article is correct in a few things, one of them being that there is NOTHING Israel can offer in mitigation of a missile saturation strike by Hizbollah – Hizbollah will not withhold attacking civilian targets this time and they will deploy Fuel Air Explosives on population centres. Israelis will leave the country in droves and the Golan will be the smallest prize the Arab armies will take. To that end and with that knowledge, Israel has invited the US to assist it in its next war – Pathetic but true, mighty Israel cannot defeat a few primitive Guerillas with AK47’s. The carefully marketed “mad dog of the middle east” is nothing but a dickless puppy.
This mad puppy has nukes. Think about that for a minute. Mad Dog Mattis also has nukes at his disposal. Either way, if Israel is overrun, I don’t see much future for Damascus. Assad can’t rule from a radioactive sea of glass.
The outcome of the third war will be the same: IsraHell will be defeated. I hope this time IsraHell will be annihiliated.
A damn nuke!
Imo idle speculation. An all out ground war between Israel and Hezbollah is unlikely. Skirmishes, yes, maybe.
Yeah, maybe, but because Israelis are super afraid of Hezbolah. This time Hezbolah, that had liberated all parts occupied by Israel in south Lebanon in the War in 2006, will go deep into Israel soil, and then they’re gonna cry all over for only God knows what reasons. But it won’t help.
Well the Torah does say say that the chiddren and mothers of israel will weep as Israel “played the harlot”.
Note no mention of the men.
The Hizb will be seeking out them settlement harlots no doubt! – right after they despatch the men.
The natural response to Israeli agression is classic Sun Tsu (The Art of War). Maybe Hezbollah has learned from the ancient master of war. Hezbollah will always be the weaker party to a war and hence have to use Sun Tsu’s elements such as Earth and the Heavens to counter Israeli strength. Also, asymmetric war better suits Hezbollah’s strengths by diminshing the value of Israel’s technical and material superiority in tanks, aircraft, drones and helicopters. Shooting these latter assets down will remove Israel’s detialed reconnaissance eyes to some degree weakening their tactical advantages. Whatever Israeli military planners have now concocted, the ground reality may prove difficult and expensive in lives and material. Hezbollah’s objective shoudk be a disproportionate weaking of Israeli strength and psychological resolve impacting on home politics. Long and expensive wars weaken resolve. and undermine morale.
Since the 1980’s when Amal preceded the Hizb, military journalist Al Venter already noticed the lowered morale of the IDF in comparison to the Amal fighters. Today, IDF is worse off. Even Hamas makes them Shit in the Gaza – even more so in 2014. Israel responds as usual with genocidal targetting of civilians (see Shujaeya massacre ). Neither Hamas nor the Hizb fight like the PLO – classic guerilla hit and run no longer applies. The Kornet ATGM does the talking in 5 man hunter-killer teams.
Folks read this link. It’s off topic but important:
http://www.usa-the-republic.com/banks/Bankers_Manifesto.pdf
The jews of Israel want permission from the world’s planetry authorities to use HOLOCAUST weapons against the civilian population of Lebanon, and literally wipe most of that nation from the face of the Earth.
Not nukes, but the modern high explosive missiles and bombs that would rapidly wipe out every town, city and village. THAT is the ‘war’ Israel wants to wage on Lebanon- and given Lebanon has zero world war class weapon systems, Lebabon would be razed to the ground.
Poeple here FANTASISE about a limited ‘fair’ war- like the jews ever fight fair. The point is, if the jews of Israel feel they are limited to a fair fight, they won’t attack Lebanon in the first place.
The missiles Lebanon can launch against the jewish state only work if the FEAR FACTOR of ordianry jews matter- clue: it will not. How many ordinary jewish lives did the zionist leaders sacrifice during WW2, for instance. Jewish leaders value ordianry jews as much as Hitler valued ordinary nazis, and Stalin ordinary Russians.
The jewish plan is to launch its holocaust strikes against Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank and parts of Syria under the cover of a terrible Iran War. So many people will be dying in Iran, Israel calculates it will be a golden opportunity to murder one million+ ‘sub-Humans’ in its under-reported strikes.
We are entering WW3- but no-one is going to declare this war this time. You’ll know when WW3 begins by the astonishing loss of lives and property. What did Britain and America do to CITY targets in the final phase of WW2- they literally targeted them for total destruction- the carefully calculated murder of every child, woman and man in that city.
The scale of mass murder planned by the jews that rule the jewish state is MORE ambitious – and their targets even more helpless than the cities leveled by the cowardly allied bombers of WW2.
The main victims whom the Zionists have thoroughly brainwashed are the Jewish people. Without Zionism there is no holocaust. Without the monopoly financial capitalism there is no Zionism.
True true, but once again, think about why Iran “gave up” its nuke program – it doesnt need it. Israel is small and has only a few population and industrial centres – Khamenei repeatedly says “we will flatten Israel” – he means it – Why? because there is nothing Israel can do to defend themselves from a saturation missile bombardment – they will be overwhelmed in a matter of hours while Irans upgraded air defence systems will do an excellent job of defending its own territory. Lebanon will suffer the most, but the Israeli threat will be gone from the region forever. Syria downed the last F16 with only an S200. Apparently an F35 was made “unserviceable” prior to that – by an S200/S300 ? Israel fools itself if it believes it has credible air superiority for the next 30 years with the shitty F35’s. They are left with the nuke option. But as I understand it, there are a lot of cold war nukes floating around the ME from the ex Soviet republics….
“Ooh-aah Hezbollah, sing ooh-aah Hebollah”.
Hezbollah’s weakness is they lack a sense of humor. When Israeli spy cameras disguised as shrubs were found in Bekaa Valley they destroyed them. Instead they should have staged parades of Klingons, Gorn, Romulans etc! :D
Humourless? They are Vulcans after all.
Israelis hate Hezbollah, but Israeli people are extremely averse to casualties. Given Hezbollah’s increased firepower and Israeli public opinion re an actual war and large number of deaths, I seriously doubt Israeli army will invade Lebanon.
The Israelis are averse to die for stolen land. The Israelis are the most brainwashed people on earth. They know that they live on stolen land. The question is how willing they are to die for it. Syrians and Hezbollah are willing to die to recover the stolen Syrian Golan Heights. Are the Israelis willing to die trying to keep land that they stole?
After 2006 war, a few hundred thousand zionazis left Israel for greener, safer pastures. The Israeli colonial project will be dead after the next war IF Israel still survives – most Israelis who can, WILL leave.
Not terribly realistic, first, you are underestimating Israeli intel, I promise they have almost all launch sites marked and targeted, they will most likely shut the majority of these down. Then comes Lebanon, unlike in 2006 when their hands were tied by international pressure due to the Lebanese government and Hezbollah were not united, they are now, this will not be a conflict with a terrorist group, the whole nation will gone after, Israel will decimate Lebanon’s infrastructure, then will go in a wipe out the Arabs there, I don’t think this next time there will be any quarter, they will burn them out, flood them out of their tunnels, we will most likely see a 1980’s PLO operation when Israel sent them all running.
“tied down by international pressure” what a Fkin joke – since when is Israel’s hands ever tied down? it bombed its neighbours for decades with impunity – it is in contravention of 100’s of UN resolutions and security council resolutions – IT DOES NOT CARE for international law – you are using it as an excuse for their pathetic losses. Hizbollah wacked the Shite outta cowardly IDF in 2006 and will IDF will have their butts handed to them once again in the next war.