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MARCH 2026

Kamyshevakha In The Crosshairs: Russian Advance To Konka River Could Open The Road To Zaporizhzhia

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In the Zaporizhzhia area, Ukrainian forces continue to carry out sorties in Prymorske and control the northern part of Stepnohirsk. Meanwhile, Russian troops are avoiding large-scale attacks on the static sectors of Novoandriivka and Mala Tokmachka. In the Slaviansk area, Russian troops have consolidated their position in Holubivka and Minkivka. They are advancing along the M-03 highway toward the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal and threatening to encircle Rai-Oleksandrivka. In the Kupyansk area, the situation remains complex with a “layered cake” of positions in the city. Russian troops are expanding their control in Kucherivka, Petropavlivka, and Podoly to improve logistics towards Kupyansk. In the Sumy area, the “North” grouping advanced 300 meters, and fierce fighting continued in Sopych. In the Kharkiv area, Russian assault groups repelled a counterattack by the “Kraken” unit. They advanced in Vovchanski Khutory and in the direction of Lyptsi, striking the 127th Brigade’s positions and warehouses in Chuhuiv. The Prime Minister of Belgium, Bart De Wever, stated that the European Union needs to establish a dialogue with Moscow regarding the Ukrainian settlement. He added that a deal with Russia is the only possible solution.

Zaporizhzhia Direction

In the Zaporizhzhia area, Ukrainian forces continue to carry out sorties on the western flank. The attacks are likely intended to pin down units of the “Dnipro” grouping in the eastern Zaporizhzhia sector. According to objective control footage, Ukrainian units are moving freely along the northern outskirts of Prymorske, inserting personnel not only in armored vehicles, but also in pickup trucks. However, they are suffering losses from Russian drones.

Stepnohirsk remains a focal point. According to available evidence, Ukrainian infantry continues to capture the northern part of the city and the northern quarter of multi-story buildings. To the east, in the Pavlivka and Novoiavlenska areas, the situation remains intense. Following the mid-February attacks on Lukianivske, Ukrainian units captured several new positions near the village that remain under their control.

The Novoandriivka–Novodanylivka–Mala Tokmachka sector has remained static in recent weeks. Russian troops are not conducting large-scale attacks across open terrain to avoid unnecessary losses. The Ukrainian side is also not inclined to take offensive action, focusing instead on maintaining defensive stability.

Ukrainian units are trying to hold Prymorske and Stepnohirsk, which are located near the Konka River. If Russian troops were to take control of this sector, they could launch attacks toward the fortified area near Kamyshevakha. This would also give them the opportunity to shell Ukrainian unit positions in Zaporizhzhia with tube artillery, which the Ukrainian side seeks to prevent.

Slaviansk Direction

In the direction of Slaviansk, Russian troops continue to advance toward the Slaviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. They are achieving the greatest successes on the southern flank, where assault groups are advancing along a chain of strongpoints. Russian units have taken control of the remains of Minkivka, and assault troops are consolidating in Holubivka. Russian troops are continuing their attacks along the M-03 highway and are approaching the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal.

There were earlier reports of Russian units crossing the canal in the Malynivka area; however, these reports have not been confirmed. Nevertheless, such an outcome is quite likely. Over the past month, units of the “South” grouping have advanced up to 10 kilometers wide and 5 kilometers deep in a sector.

The northern flank remains relatively static for now, with fierce fighting continuing for Kryva Luka and Reznykivka. In the Kalenyky area, Ukrainian units are deploying armored vehicles and artillery several kilometers from the front in an attempt to contain the onslaught of Russian troops, but the destruction of these vehicles and artillery continues. Capturing these settlements would enable control of the nearby heights and create the conditions for encircling the fortified area in Rai-Oleksandrivka from two sides.

Apparently, the Ukrainian side will try to hold the Kalenyky–Rai-Oleksandrivka–Yurkivka line for as long as possible. Losing this line would allow the Russians to bring up artillery and drone units to strike Ukrainian unit positions in Slaviansk. Anticipating combat operations in the city, local authorities have removed the trolleybus fleet and are constructing anti-drone tunnels.

Kupyansk Direction

The situation in Kupyansk itself remains extremely complex, with a “layered cake” of positions. Russian positions in the city are unstable, as Ukrainian units regularly counterattack using drones and artillery. In the Moskivka area, however, Russian units have managed to consolidate their positions and maintain relatively stable control. In the city itself, holding positions is extremely difficult due to the lack of reliable logistics. Russian groups are mainly supplied by drones, which Ukrainian units constantly hunt.

To stabilize the situation, the logistical route in the Extreme Park area must be expanded. Currently, it is only 500 meters wide, which makes it impossible for vehicles or foot groups to pass under fire from Ukrainian units.

Russian troops have achieved some success in the areas of Kucherivka, Petropavlivka, and Podoly and are expanding the control zone, which should eventually improve logistics to Kupyansk. The Russian side is working to strengthen defense lines to prevent Ukrainian unit attacks on the left bank of the Oskol.

In the Pishchane area, Ukrainian units are fortifying their positions with anti-tank ditches and fortifications in tree lines south of the village. The Ukrainian side has established firing and drone control points.

Sumy Direction

In the Sumy region, Russian assault groups are engaged in intense combat along the entire front line, advancing deeper into the area. Russian aviation forces and strike drone operators attacked Ukrainian unit personnel and equipment concentrations in the Hlukhiv, Iskrykivshchyna, Pisarivka, Proletarske, Barylka, Khoruzhivka, Solidarne, Myropillia, Zapsillia, and Nova Sich areas.

Russian assault troops advanced on seven sections in the Sumy district and on two in the Hlukhiv district. The total advance over the day amounted to up to 300 meters.

The Ukrainian 71st Separate Airmobile Brigade continues to suffer significant losses in the Sumy district. Relatives of missing servicemen intend to request a meeting with the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine. Notably, the brigade command completely ignores the requests of their soldiers’ relatives.

Fierce fighting continues in Sopych. Drone operators from the 104th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade are engaging the Ukrainian forces, including soldiers trying to flee the settlement.

Meanwhile, Russian units are continuing to successfully carry out offensive operations in the Krasnopillia district. For the second day in a row, soldiers from the 119th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade have voluntarily left their positions and abandoned their weapons. The Ukrainian command has transferred reserves from the 53rd Separate Reconnaissance Battalion to this sector. The battalion’s personnel have been quartered in the homes of residents in Lisne. Russian artillerymen and drone operators have identified temporary deployment points.

Kharkiv Direction

In the Kharkiv region, Russian assault groups are advancing with stubborn fighting. Russian aviation forces and strike drone operators attacked Ukrainian unit personnel and equipment concentrations in Vesele, Verkhnii Saltiv, Varvarivka, Nesterne, Prykolotne, and Chuhuiv. In Chuhuiv, a temporary deployment point and weapons warehouse belonging to the 144th Separate Mechanized Brigade were destroyed.

In the Vovchansk area, Russian assault groups repelled a counterattack and advanced up to 200 meters. Ukrainian units conducted a counterattack with two “Kraken” special unit assault groups (belonging to the Main Intelligence Directorate) on Russian troop positions in the forest south of Hrafskoho. The groups were destroyed as a result of comprehensive fire engagement.

In the Lyptsi area, the 11th Army Corps advanced up to 300 meters into the forest. Units operating heavy flamethrowers destroyed a concentration of Ukrainian troops from the 127th Separate Tank Mechanized Brigade in a wooded area near Vesele.

Conclusion

Analysis of the operational situation indicates that high-intensity combat operations persist in all directions. In the Zaporizhzhia area, Ukrainian troops are holding bridgeheads in Prymorske and Stepnohirsk to prevent Russian forces from reaching the Konka River and threatening Zaporizhzhia. Russian troops are proceeding cautiously to avoid losses on open terrain. In the Slaviansk area, Russian troops are advancing on the southern flank and approaching the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal. This puts Rai-Oleksandrivka at risk of being surrounded, which would put Slaviansk under pressure. In the Kupyansk area, Russian units are expanding their control of the flanks despite the critical logistics situation in the city itself, seeking to ensure a stable supply for the grouping. In the Sumy area, the “North” grouping is advancing systematically, exacerbating the crisis in Ukrainian units (mass desertion and command ignoring relatives’ requests). In the Kharkiv area, Russian troops are repelling counterattacks by elite units and advancing in forested areas to strike rear targets.

In the context of international politics, an important event was the statement made by Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever. In an interview with Echo, De Wever stated that the European Union needs to establish a dialogue with Moscow regarding the Ukrainian conflict because a deal with Russia is the only possible solution. The politician acknowledged that Europe cannot support Ukraine indefinitely or supply weapons without US participation, and that it is impossible to “economically strangle Russia.” Without a mandate to negotiate with Moscow, he lamented, Europe will not be at the negotiating table where the Americans will pressure Ukraine to accept a deal that would be unfavorable for Europe.

De Wever’s statement reflects the growing understanding in European capitals that the conflict has no military solution and that Europe’s role in the future peace process may be minimized. De Wever effectively admitted to the failure of the strategy to economically strangle Russia and to Europe’s dependence on the US for security. His words echo President Putin’s recent statements that Europe excluded itself from the settlement process. It is significant that European leaders are openly discussing the need for dialogue with Russia, despite this conflicting with Brussels’ official stance. Against the backdrop of Russian troops’ successful offensive in all directions and the EU’s internal problems (an energy crisis and conflicts with Hungary and Slovakia), such statements increase pressure on Kyiv and push it toward a negotiation process with terms that will likely differ greatly from the Ukrainian side’s initial demands.

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