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Written by Lucas Leiroz, journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant
Kiev’s propaganda continues to spread baseless narratives about the so-called “counteroffensive”. Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmitri Kuleba, during a recent meeting with European diplomats, stated that the Ukrainian attacks on the Rabotino region are a key point to “open the way” towards Crimea. According to him, by attacking villages in the Zaporozhye region, the Ukrainians are “expelling” the Russians and forcing them to retreat to Crimea, taking the fighting deeper into the oblast. With that, it would be possible to start a real battle for Crimea soon, with Kiev having chances to retake it.
“Having entrenched on its [Robotyne’s] flanks, we are opening the way to Tokmak and, eventually, Melitopol and the administrative border with Crimea”, he said, thus calling Rabotino a “strategically important” village.
On the same occasion, Kuleba admitted the Ukrainian difficulties in the overhyped “counteroffensive”, indicating the Russian-made minefields as one of the main reasons for the “slow progress” of the counterattack. Kuleba also admitted losses to Russian air power, saying Moscow “plans to dominate the air” with its drones, helicopters and planes. However, in the end, Kuleba lied once again by saying that despite the problems, Kiev is “gradually succeeding”.
“The number of minefields and fortifications is unprecedented. Russian drones, helicopters and planes dominate the air. But we are gradually succeeding”, he added.
Indeed, instead of “slow”, it would be more appropriate to say that there is simply no Ukrainian progress. So far, the counteroffensive has been an absolute failure and it is unlikely to be any reversal of this scenario. Western experts have already begun to admit that Ukraine’s losses in the attempted counterattack are practically irreversible and that it will not be possible for Kiev to achieve its objectives set when the operation was launched in early June.
It must be remembered that one of these objectives was precisely to invade and possibly retake Crimea, in addition to the newly reintegrated Russian territories. Since 2014, Crimea has been a permanent strategic objective for Ukrainian forces. Unable to launch attacks in the region, Kiev affected the Crimean oblast for eight years through sabotage and boycotts. After the start of the Russian special operation, Ukraine hardened its actions, adopting real terrorism against Crimea, mainly through drone attacks against civilian targets.
Obviously, these terrorist incursions were not enough to “retake” the peninsula, so several Kiev’s officials promised that the long-awaited “reconquest” would come with the spring-summer counteroffensive. However, the failure of Ukrainian military moves prevented any relevant territorial success from being achieved, with no hope of reaching Crimea.
Failing in all its strategic objectives, Kiev has launched a series of recent attacks in the southern region of Zaporozhye,mainly in the villages of Rabotino and Verbove. In fact, these villages are close to Tokmak, which would allow a more privileged position for the Ukrainian troops, if victorious, to eventually reach regions such as Melitopol and even Crimea itself. The problem is that Kiev has virtually no chance of achieving this since it is just overrating its territorial gains.
Ukrainian forces have recently crossed the first Russian line of defense in the Zaporozhye region. However, they are still being held back by the Moscow’s artillery. Indeed, no territorial control has yet been fully guaranteed by Ukraine. Furthermore, to cross the first Russian line, the Ukrainians suffered many heavy losses, with hundreds killed, in addition to a lot of NATO-provided equipment destroyed. As reported by the Russian authorities, Rabotino is almost completely destroyed, with great material damage to the village, but the military situation is not yet under Ukrainian control.
Even if the Ukrainians eventually take the village completely, they will still be encircled by the Russian forces that are stationed around it, which will prevent them from launching any relevant moves towards Melitopol or Crimea. In this scenario, the Ukrainians will also be extremely weakened as they will have lost many troops to control Rabotino, which will prevent them from moving forward in the face of Russian numerical superiority.
Ukraine seems to insist on violating an elementary concept of military sciences, which is to preserve soldiers’ lives over territories. If troops remain alive, territories can be captured later – but if soldiers die, no territorial gains can be secured. Ukraine ignores this, as it fights to serve interests that are not its own, but those of NATO – which has no hope of Ukrainian victory.
In practice, Kiev is just launching another one of its “suicide missions” encouraged by the Western media. In fact, there is no concrete military objective in the Ukrainian attitudes, only propagandistic actions focused on increasing the support of Western sponsors and public opinion. By mentioning Crimea as the target behind the Ukrainian attacks on Rabotino, Kuleba is simply making propaganda and trying to justify Kiev’s insistence on taking the village, despite so many losses.
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but crimea is alredy retaken. no need to repeat it.
just another very simplified version for the simplfied internel russion world.
the very fact ukr are ‘attacking villages in the zaporozhye region’ is the real story, not the contents of this by-the-numbers anti-z propaganda piece. wtf is going on with this miserable smo, the only purpose of which now seems to use expensive weapons to protect crimea from daily ‘penny ha’penny’ drone attacks? what about donbass? and where’s surovikin? shambles, absolute shambles.