The American peace initiative is still alive. Both sides of the conflict have voiced some interest in it, but the diplomacy is unfolding against a steady drumbeat of strikes, and the next round of talks may depend on what happens on the ground.
On October 29, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said that trilateral talks between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine are expected to resume after November 4. The timing, he added, will depend on the situation at the front and on Kyiv’s conduct during the holiday period. European representatives are not being considered for these consultations. Vladimir Putin offered a clarification of his own a day earlier. The recent phone calls, initiated by Finland and Norway, are seen in Moscow as a dialogue with those two countries, not with the European Union as a whole.
Diplomacy, however, has not slowed the strikes. Overnight, Kyiv reportedly came under eight ballistic missile strikes: two Zircon hypersonic missiles and six Iskander-M missiles.
In Kyiv and its surrounding oblast, the reported targets included a plant producing components for reconnaissance and strike drones, a workshop for assembling and storing Fire Point FP-1 and FP-2 drones, and the 330-kilovolt Novokyivska substation in Khotiv, which powers defense enterprises in the capital. In the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the Svitle substation, supplying military plants in Dnipro, was hit. In the Black Sea, a dry cargo ship delivering military and dual-use cargo to Odesa was also struck.
From the rear, the focus shifts to the front, where Sumy Oblast is drawing fresh Ukrainian reserves.
Russian aviation, drone crews, and artillery of the “North” grouping are intensifying strikes on Ukrainian troop and equipment concentrations, supporting the advance of assault units. The Ukrainian command is trying to stabilize the situation by quietly moving reserves from other sectors. The 74th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion has been reportedly sent to Sumy Oblast to expand sabotage activity, after an earlier buildup of Ukrainian special operations units there.
These moves suggest that Kyiv has not finished assembling a joint special-purpose force for a sabotage and psychological operation. Russian commentators warn of bloody provocations on Russian territory meant to push escalation to a new level. Such an operation could also derail the emerging peace process, in which Washington is, by Moscow’s reading, not playing on Ukraine’s side.
Moscow is setting conditions for the talks while its missiles keep striking Kyiv. Kyiv, meanwhile, is reportedly massing saboteurs in Sumy while its backers quietly explore other channels. When both sides prepare for the table with force, the talks themselves risk becoming one more front.
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