Kyiv Under a Double Blow: Record Russian Attack and the Consequences of Its Own Air Defenses

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On the night of September 28, 2025, Russia launched one of its most powerful and prolonged combined air attacks on Ukrainian territory. This attack, which lasted over 12 hours, was a demonstrative action primarily targeting the Kyiv region. It was notable not only for the record number of munitions used but also for the large-scale deployment of various weapon systems.

According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia launched a total of 593 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), two jet-powered ‘Banderoil’ drones, 38 Kh-101 cruise missiles, eight ‘Kalibr’ cruise missiles, and two ‘Kinzhal’ aeroballistic missiles. The Ukrainian side reported neutralizing 568 drones and 43 missiles.

This attack differed from previous ones in that the Ukrainian side has significantly strengthened its air defense with new systems and missiles, including Patriot SAM systems. However, this raid proved very costly for the defending side, as it is not cost-effective to use expensive missiles to shoot down relatively cheap ‘Geran’ drones.

This also caused many fragments from Ukrainian air defense operations to fall on residential buildings, particularly in the capital, sparking a wave of informational statements and disinformation.

Debris of a missile on the streets of Kyiv

Most sources consider that the debris in the photos are from Patriot missiles, specifically the PAC-3 variant. However, there are also experts who believe that the debris belongs to the S-300PS surface-to-air missile system. According to their statements, a detailed technical analysis of debris photos circulated from Kyiv indicates with high probability that these are parts of an S-300PS missile (modifications 5V55/48N6), not Russian cruise missiles, as sometimes presented in Ukrainian reports. This is confirmed by the overall dimensions, longitudinal overlays, coloration, and tail section of the missile.

The engagement range of these SAMs confirms that their launch could only have originated from Ukrainian air defense positions. The absence of a crater and shrapnel field indicates the fall of a hollow section after self-destruction.

The launch of a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile at a house in Kyiv, which was captured by a webcam

Why S-300PS and not other missiles:

• S-300V: Significantly larger, different diameter and configuration.

• Patriot PAC-2/3: PAC-2 has a sand-colored paint scheme and a different tail architecture; PAC-3 has grid fins at the nose.

• IRIS-T SLM, AIM-120, HAWK: Diameter 127–178 mm, noticeably thinner.

• SRBMs / Cruise Missiles (“Iskander-M”, Kh-101, “Kalibr”): Diameter 0.65–0.95 m, must show traces of a turbojet engine and wings.

Why such debris ends up in the city:

1. Aerial Intercept: If guidance fails or the missile self-destructs, it breaks apart, and large hollow sections fall in built-up areas without leaving a crater.

2. Malfunction or Loss of Stability: In abnormal flight, the fuselage impacts the surface without the warhead detonating.

3. Surface-to-Surface Launches: The Ukrainian side periodically uses S-300 systems in a surface-to-surface mode. Such falls are an already observed scenario in the context of provocative self-shelling.

Surveillance camera footage records strikes from Russian Kh-101 cruise missiles and the work of Ukrainian crews, likely of the same S-300PS as well as Patriot systems, in the skies over Kyiv this morning

Detailed Breakdown of Strikes on Ukraine

Kyiv and Region

The main strike targeted Kyiv and its region. Facilities in central Kyiv, the ‘Antonov’ plant, warehouses in the Podil district and on the western outskirts of the city, in Borshchahivka, were hit. About 20 objects of military and energy infrastructure in six city districts were damaged.

Svyatoshyn-1 Airfield (Antonov-1)

The Svyatoshyn airfield is an industrial airfield within the city limits, integrated into the perimeter of the ‘Antonov‘ serial production plant. The facility is used as a platform for the finishing, testing, and flight trials of ‘An’ family aircraft, as well as internal plant infrastructure between assembly buildings. It is not a passenger airport but a “working” flight-test zone of the industrial complex. The concentration of debris impact points in the Svyatoshyn area is logically explained by its industrial infrastructure and the high activity of air defense over this industrial zone.

Bila Tserkva

A targeted strike was carried out on the territory of the Thermal Power Plant (TPP) in Bila Tserkva using three Kh-101 cruise missiles, aimed at disabling power and heat generation used for industrial enterprises and defense industry facilities in the region. The plant’s generating capacity at the moment of the strike was 150–200 MW.

Simultaneously, serial strikes by UAVs were carried out on industrial facilities in the city, including the former Rubber Products Plant, the ‘ROSAVA‘ tire plant, the Bila Tserkva Cargo Aviation Complex, and the ‘Hermes‘ shopping mall, which, according to some reports, was used as a storage point for ammunition and equipment. These strikes should be viewed as a connected operation to disrupt the production and logistical chain of Ukrainian forces.

Other Regions of Ukraine

• Zaporizhzhia region: Strikes were reported on the territory of ‘Zaporizhstal’ and Police Department No. 6. At least three vehicles were damaged, and the building itself was seriously affected. Data on personnel losses is not yet available.

• Odesa region: Significant impacts were noted in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi (Akkerman) near the wine factory, which has long been used for launching drones towards Crimea.

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Click to see the full-size image

• Mykolaiv region: In the Ochaкiv area, strikes were carried out on recreational bases repurposed as temporary deployment and logistics support points for units of the Ukrainian GUR (Main Intelligence Directorate), particularly on the ‘Vila Madrid’ and ‘Dynamo Training and Sports Recreation Base’ facilities.

• Sumy region: A powerful fire occurred at a truck parking lot, impacting logistics in the border area.

• Strikes by ‘Geran-2’ drones were recorded on the 330 kV ‘Nizhyn’ electrical substation and the Chernihiv TPP in the Chernihiv area.

Strikes on Russia

Ukrainian forces struck Russian border territories. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Russian air defenses destroyed 41 Ukrainian UAVs: 12 over Kursk region, 10 over Bryansk region, 8 over Belgorod region, 4 over Tula region, 3 over Yaroslavl region, 2 over Rostov region, and 1 each over Novgorod and Samara regions.

In Belgorod region, the governor reported three injured in Shebekino, and one rocket hit a road in the center of Belgorod, but no one was hurt. In Kursk region, a civilian was injured. A man died in the hospital after being injured by the detonation of an FPV drone in the village of Novostroevka-Pervaya, Graivoron district of Belgorod region.

Conclusion

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced retaliatory strikes: “The Russians launched almost 500 drones and more than 40 missiles. We will strike back at Russia to ‘compel diplomacy’.”

Commenting on Zelenskyy’s statements, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov noted, “The situation for Ukraine and its negotiating positions is steadily deteriorating; they understand this in Kyiv, but they are bluffing. Everyone understands Russia’s reaction if Kyiv tries to attack the Kremlin.”

According to insiders in the General Staff, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing strikes on Russian heating systems and energy grids ahead of the heating season. Ukrainian command has planned strikes for early to mid-October. However, these strikes will focus solely on creating panic among the population and will not change the balance of forces on the front line.