File image.
Ukrainian motorized units are counterattacking in the Dobropillia area, destroying crossings over the Siverskyi Donets to block Lyman. Approximately 30% of Kupyansk territory is reportedly under Russian control, and fortified defense lines are being bypassed in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk.
Pokrovsk direction:
Heavy, ongoing clashes characterize the situation in the Dobropillia area. Russian units have reported advancing 4 km north of Kucheriv Yar towards Zolotyi Kolodets, where assault infantry have been spotted in the tree lines. Concurrently, footage has emerged showing a Ukrainian counterattack near the Dorozhne settlement involving armored vehicles, including Bradley IFVs. This follows the Ukrainian command’s redeployment of units previously stationed near Kupyansk to this sector, indicating an attempt to stabilize the front. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces are expanding their control zone west of Kotlyne and in the Mirnohrad area.
Krasnolyman Direction:
Russian troops are continuing their offensive operations. Fighting persists in the areas surrounding the settlements of Stavky, Myrne, and the northern outskirts of Drobysheve and Novoselivka. According to statements by the Russian command, advances in the Drobysheve, Yampil and Dronivka areas have almost completely cut off the Ukrainian forces in Lyman from their main overland supply routes.
However, it should be noted that there is still the possibility of transporting goods across the Siverskyi Donets River via fords, without the need to construct complex crossings. This is facilitated by the river’s extensive shoreline, which has sections of less than one meter depth in places. Conversely, Russian units are attempting to identify and destroy these crucial logistical paths using aerial reconnaissance conducted by UAVs.
Click to see full-size image. (Telegram)
Kharkiv Direction:
Units of the Russian ‘Zapad’ grouping are continuing to conduct active combat operations on the Borova axis, to the south of Kupyansk. Vitaly Ganchev, the head of the Russian administration in Kharkiv Oblast, stated that Russian troops are blocking Kupyansk from the north and west, and have taken control of around 30% of the city. He also noted that the advance is being complicated by the significant presence of civilians and the fact that the city has been transformed into a heavily fortified area.
Reports indicate that Ukrainian defenses have been broken through east of Borovska Andriivka, with Ukrainian forces advancing to the eastern outskirts of the settlement. During the fighting in this area, strikes were carried out against personnel from two mechanized brigades, one assault brigade and a Ukrainian National Guard unit.
Huliaipole Direction:
Units of the ‘Vostok’ grouping are continuing to develop their offensive in the Uspenivka-Pavlivka area. According to Russian sources, there has been an advance westward towards Huliaipole along the highway from Velyka Novosilka, as well as to the south.
Reports indicate that Russian units have established control over several Ukrainian strongpoints to the south of Novoivanivka. Furthermore, they are advancing towards the intersection with the road to Novohryhorivka in the direction of Uspenivka. The Russian military claims that they have fire control over this road, which is the sole logistical route into Novohryhorivka.
Combat is ongoing in the area around Novohryhorivka, with Russian units attacking from two directions: from the north, via Skotovata Balka, and from the east, via Novoivanivka. According to reports, the line of contact has been aligned with the tree lines to the north and south of the eastern outskirts of the settlement.
To the north of Novohryhorivka, Russian units are advancing along the ravine towards Pervomaiske and the Yanchul River. To the south of the settlement, there have been reports of an advance to the Yanchul River and of the establishment of control over the eastern part of Pavlivka. Meanwhile, attacks on the southern outskirts of Pavlivka are being conducted from the Malynivka side.
Click to see full-size map.
Conclusion:
The frontline situation as of 2 October is characterized by a deepening crisis in the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on several strategically important fronts, compelling the Ukrainian command to engage in emergency and risky reserve maneuvering. The key development today has been Russian forces successfully implementing tactics involving the deep bypassing of powerful fortification areas in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. This has enabled Russian units to advance steadily into the operational depth of the Ukrainian defence while minimizing losses.
This strategic maneuver is not new to this conflict. It echoes the actions of Ukrainian forces during their 2022 offensive in Kharkiv Oblast, when they also effectively utilized tactics to bypass fortified areas. This enabled them to reach operational space and threaten the defending forces with encirclement.
However, Ukrainian forces lack the reserves needed to reinforce defenses in sectors where Russian units are applying pressure, making it even more difficult for them to prevent breakthroughs in areas where the Russian armed forces are avoiding protracted battles. Consequently, the Russian command is attempting to cut off Ukrainian forces in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions from their supplies and reserves.
Meanwhile, fierce, close-quarters battles are ongoing on the Dobropillia axis. The redeployment of Ukrainian units from other sectors of the front to counterattack in the Dorozhne and Zolotyi Kolodets area highlights the importance that the Ukrainian command places on this line. Successful Russian advances here pose a direct threat of a potential push towards the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration, a key defensive hub and industrial center.
On the Krasnolyman axis, the Ukrainian grouping has been encircled and its main land lines of communication cut, but this tactical success is not yet conclusive. The Ukrainian side’s continued ability to conduct supply operations via fords across the Siverskyi Donets River means the situation here is entering a protracted phase, requiring ongoing efforts to fully isolate the Ukrainian forces.
In a statement today, Putin declared that Ukrainian forces control approximately 0.13% of the Luhansk People’s Republic territory. The situation on the Donetsk axis is somewhat different, with Ukrainian forces holding around 19% of the oblast. As previously mentioned, the objective on the southern front is to establish full control over the remaining 25% of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. These figures outline the approximate scale of the tasks that the Russian command assesses as remaining to be accomplished for the full realization of its objectives in these areas.
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