The Russian Defense Ministry released a list of “armed formations” which have joined a nation-wide ceasefire in Syria (set to be started on December 30).
It’s interesting to note that Russia suggested to designate Ahrar al-Sham as a terrorist group in the UN in May 2016. Now, the group is in the list of entities involved in the ceasefure.
According to the list, 51,500 “opposition” fighters will be involved in the ceasefire. Meanwhile, media reports say that the number is 62,000.
1. Feilak al-Sham
19 detachments, total strength: over 4,000 people.
Its formations conduct combat actions in the Aleppo, Idlib, Hama and Homs provinces.
2. Ahrar al-Sham
The full name is Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya.
Over 80 detachments, total strength: about 16,000 people.
Formations of the grouping conduct combat actions in the Aleppo, Damascus, Daraa, Idlib, Latakia, Hama and Homs provinces.
3. Jaysh al-Islam
64 detachments, total strength: about 12,000 people.
Jaysh al-Islam formations conduct combat actions in the Aleppo, Damascus, Daraa, Deir ez-Zor, Latakia, Hama and Homs provinces.
4. Thuwar al-Sham
8 battalions, total strength: about 2,500 people.
Armed formations conduct combat actions in the Aleppo, Idlib and Latakia provinces.
5. Jaysh al-Mujahideen
13 detachments, total strength: about 8,000 people.
Armed formations conduct combat actions in the Aleppo city and provinces of Aleppo, Idlib and Hama.
6. Jaysh Idlib
3 large detachments, total strength: more than 6,000 people.
Jaysh Idlib conducts combat actions in the Idlib province.
7. Jabhat al-Shamiyah
5 large detachments, total strength: about 3,000 people.
The grouping detachments conduct combat actions in the Aleppo, Idlib and Damascus provinces.
Most major warring parties like Al Nusta and ISIS have not been part to any agreement. The war will continue and this ceasefire will likely have the same fate as all those that preceded it. Just more PR scoring points for Putin & Lavrov but no substance. Seems Russia has long forgotten how to win wars.
Not really. No, ISIS and al Nusra are not included in the cease fire agreements. But by including some 50’000 fighters, it will be easier for the Syrian army to take on ISIS because they don’t have to simultaneously fight against the Syrian opposition militants. That will make the fight against ISIS more efficient. A permanent ceasefire and peace cannot really be achieved without first eliminating ISIS and al Nusra who are mostly foreigners. And it will need a new order for the Syrian state – that has to be discussed and negotiated elsewhere – as it is planned, in Astana in Kazakhstan. Hopefully, once Obama leaves, the US will stop to interfere and support terrorists. That will help a lot to get peace.
“they don’t have to simultaneously fight against the Syrian opposition militants.” We already have had this situation before, and the whole ceasefire was only used to resupply the terrorists. These groups are so intermingled you can’t distinguish them, they are not separated, and frankly, the “opposition” is more like a phantom, no one has ever seen a credible opposition figure who is not a US or Saudi puppet or a headchopper.
A ceasefire now will sort them out: whoever continues to fight is a terrorist.
no, not by a mile. it’s easy to want to end the war and a military solution and i agree on a need to do so, but if this truce and possible amnesties and reintegration really materialize (for all the reasons in my comment up), this will save the syrian army at least 6 months of armed struggle and following deaths, then it’s a welcome thing. THEN you can go after Nusra. and btw. the climate fundamentally changed: soon, there will be no US help for “moderate opposition” not ISIS, and Turkey is more hostile the them as well. not to mention killings of commanders. all these facts lead to the normal human desire to save one’s own skin.
and btw. i saw a video somewhere about ex-rebels-turned-jihadis who got amnestied, and were then – sent to the army, because they didn’t do their mandatory conscript period (don’t you LOVE the bueraucracy?). the video showed them retrained. point being, at least some of them will be cajoled back into SAA, making more soldiers available. while i do have my doubts about their level of loyalty (though loyalty can oddly shift towards a winning side esp if you’re in that uniform) and ability, it WILL provide some extra troops that could be sent to fight ISIS.
Believing that turkey can control ahrar sham enough to respect a cease fire is a gamble. Ahrar sham have been financed by both turkey and qatar and their is no reason to believe qatar is part of this agreement.
Nice list. It should be supplied to Mr Kerry or his replacement. The US didn’t provide any info on who the “moderate” rebels are, and have no idea where the western arms are going (some of them may have turned up around Al Bab). This may change very soon.
Aha, I think i get why truce was proclaimed just after Aleppo. 1. Aleppo wasn’t just a strategic city, it was also a nerve center of foreign “advisers” (better to tall them terror coordinators). And seems all these islamist fractions were in contact with them and provided with data, strategic planning, etc. so, once Aleppo pocket got busted and the advisers were forced to relocate Aleppo the influence of coordinators was for the time drastically reduced (since you need time to relocate and set up your operation again). 2. in addition to losing the “coordination center”, loss of Aleppo was a major blow to morale of jihadists. 3. CIA “cleaners” putting out jihadist commanders to hide their cooperation with jihadis, as we’ve seen recently. 4. With Trump government coming soon and Erdogan flipping sides, the jihadis could expect no future help from turkey nor USA government. even if saudis and qataris are still ready to bankroll them, you need to GET this money and weapons to Idlib… and as it goes, they don’t have Turkey’s consent anymore. ofcourse, this leaves Israelis, but being smart, they should also understand the times have changed, and should start cleaning up as well.
For these reasons i dare argue that the various jihadist fractions across Syria were for the time being confused, one could say strategically headless, and desperate. And it was in this sensitive moment that Putin offered a way out – truce (and negotiations about amnesty). The number of groups which listed indicates that this came at the right time. and should this work Putin lot smarter than we give him credit.
Putin realizes that a lot of the troops in these militias are not even soldiers and have no desire to fight. A lot of them were just local militas that were pressed to join the ‘biggest gang in town’ to survive. These groups are top-heavy with foreigners and jihadis that won’t just let the foot soldiers walk away. I’m sure Assad would have wanted to keep fighting these groups – Putin and the Russian military leaders seem to have been pushing Assad for months on the amnesty programs in liberated areas. The longer the truce holds with the current list of groups, the more pressure there will be for them to disband and ask for amnesty (or flee, if they’re foreigners). There is just no more war for these groups to fight.
So by the amnesties (which a lot of people bitched about) and the truce arranged now (which more people are bitching about), Putin is largely doing what Obama failed to do: separate non-jihadi native Syrian rebels that are tired of fighting from the foreigners and hard-core jihadis who want to keep fighting. Of course the hard-core head-choppers in these groups will break the truce, but those will be isolated incidents and they will be liquidated. What looks like an act of stupidity or weakness – ‘trusting’ the rebel leaders to hold the truce – is probably the best way to smoke our the most die-hard nutjobs for elimination or give them time to flee. The nobody foot-solders don’t get shot in the back by jihadis for deserting, they won’t have to fight now and they will eventually get go home without being thrown in prison for terrorism.
Obama and Kerry could have never figured out a deal like this, and Assad would never have done it on his own. People in the west will never be able to understand the genius of this plan. Instead, they’ll shriek every time someone breaks the truce and crow about how it was such a stupid plan, not realizing that this was the exact intent.
It’s actually reminiscent of how the 2nd Chechen War ended. The Russians saw that there was a clear divide between the Wahhabis and ordinary Chechens fighting for their land and people, and offered an amnesty, which the Wahhabis wouldn’t take, so the war ended with the Chechens leading the fight to drive the Wahhabis out.
Brilliant comment!
50 000 Ropes for these scum…Hang them all….fucking american terrorists….