The map provides a general look at the military situation in Syria on November 29, 2016.
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Map Update: General Look at Military Situation in Syria on November 29, 2016
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What’s next after Aleppo? Idlib? Hama? Latakia? Maybe destroy the Turks while they’re at it?
Syrian army need to finish the pockets in Southern Syria once and for all.The move on Idlib.
Finish off Idlib first before Turks try to occupy that area. Southern Syria mostly FSA unlike Islamist north Aleppo/Idlib/ and Damascus can be later sent to the following Turkey of YPG area.
They have them on the run in Idlib, but methinks securing Al-Bab may now be an even bigger priority then the remaining Aleppo pocket. They’re probably not going to keep the Rohava Kurds out of Raqqa, but Deir El Zor needs to be relieved before the American backed forces gain too much ground in East Syria.
Securing Al-Bab would not only stop the Turks gaining further foothold in that region, but also block supplies getting to ISIS from Turkey.
Probably the Idleb option will have to wait a long time. The SAA is not deployed in strength to relieve Deir El Zor right now. They have enough force around Aleppo to clear out Alleppo pocket now, if the Jihadist are low on fighters, ammo, and morale (as seems to be the case). In Al Bab, why not let the FSA and Turks do the heavy fighting against ISUS? The SAA forces can quickly move in from the south after ISUS is worn down or in retreat. Taking all of E Aleppo will free up large amount of SAA and allied forces for other areas.
Beat the opposition groups to Raqqa.
Totally outdated, Khan al-Shih isn’t islamist territory anymore, theyve already moved on to Idlib, while the part in southern Damascus, Yarmouk and that forgot the name, neightbouring district should be black not green, since yarmouk’s martyr’s brigade is affiliated with ISIS.
well, good thing they already have a concentration of troops around Aleppo, which can (and probably will) be engaged in blitz towards Al-Bab. this will effectively turn the turkish territory into a fishbowl. any turkish complaints can simply be answered by arming the kurds better.
Ofcourse, Erdogan might really attack SAA, but this would be a very grave mistake. at this point after russian military aid revived SAA and it’s equipment, Syria can probably hold it’s ground against turkey in case turkey attacks. I know it sounds far fetched, but it isn’t. firstly, there is very little actual frontline between SAA and turks, kurds being a good buffer. thus, any engagement would be contained there or having to go over kurdish territory.secondly, syria also has artillery, missile systems and advanced warplanes.
the sluggish pace of operation so far (considering the mythical strength of turkish military) shows it isnt as formidable an army as it looks. it’s slowness and pacing shows that the military is gutted by coup repression and demoralized by fighting outside their homeland. so, in any confrontation of syrian and turkish military, should SAA go all out, turkey would find itself of the recieving end of at least missile systems, artillery, and warplane strikes. also, worthy of note is concentration of T-72 and T-90 tanks around Aleppo.
in any such war the SAA would be highly motivated against invaders, and turkish military engaged with determined, experienced and high tech armed forces would falter sooner than we think. and that’s even in equation without the kurds! speaking of kurds, there also is an option of opening the pandora’s box should SyAAF in deal with kurds bomb turkish military units on syrian turkish border. this can mean that PKK and YPG can engage the weakened turkish military and would undoubtedly be eager to go into open rebellion after recent genocide there (cizre 2015). in weakened state of turkish armed forces, this would be a rather serious problem (especially if Syria would supply weapons to SDF, and they to PKK). so Assad has many options, even if some are downright deperate. and that’s even without russian support.
Erdogan has been going out of his way to undermine everything that Ataturk and the Turkish military stood for, and everything that made them better than other local armies. Having them fight alongside Islamist terrorists is just rubbing all that in their face a little more. It’s little wonder they aren’t showing much spirit. They are also having a much bigger headache with the PKK than they let on. The fighting has sucked 22 of their 24 Commando battalions into it, along with other supporting forces. So, yes, Turkey is not able to operate with the impunity it has previously, or that Erdogan’s bluster implies.
What needs to be done after the Ghouta and Aleppo problem is SAA must choose between liberating Idlib or Deir Ezzor first. Both have SAA garrisons that are under siege.