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The map above provides a general look at the military situation in the area of Nayrab, where clashes between Turkish forces and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militants erupted on April 26.
Map Update: Military Situation In Area Of Nayrab Where Clashes Between Turkish Troops And HTS Militants Erupted
stupidity outbreaks in Idlib…
A US Bio Warfare Lab has now weaponised ‘ Stupidity ‘. The US Deep State is said to be most impressed with the results of testing the ‘Stupid2020’ virus on the US Government and governments of US allies.
It certainly has hit You at least twice.
Not good. Now the Turks can claim they “try” to “implement” the Astana agreement, therefore Russia wont give the green light to Assad and allies to finally clean out Idlib once and for all.
Then there is also a report on al masdar who confirms Russia would prefer Assad to just abandon further liberation of Syira by force. Former Russian Ambassador to Syria slams Assad’s approach to ending war: https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/former-russian-ambassador-to-syria-slams-assads-approach-to-ending-war/
It also sheds a light on the fact, how the relationship of Putin and Assad has been for years. Not good.
I understand Russia wants an end to the conflict, and prefers the economic gains Erdogan promised over supporting Assad. It is sadly just cold realpolitik. But given that Russia supposely went into Syria, to end the terror threat to itself, i dont think any economic gains Turkey may promise Russia could be more important than the national security of Russia being threatend by Idlib Jihadi safe haven.
Erdogan played his cards well. With the last conflict in Idlib between SAA and Turkey, Erdogan showed that only a full out war against his forces in Idlib with total Russian support for the SAA could end the Turkish occupation. And Putin seems to think (at this point understandable) that this is not worth it for Russia.
But sadly, if Putin would not have made the Idlib deals, Turkey would never have been in this strong position to begin with, and Idlib would have been liberated since at least 2019.
But i fear we will have to accept the Turkish occupation in Syria for the near and middle term future. Without Russian support for a full out war of the SAA against Turkish forces in Idlib, there is not that much of a chance for the SAA.
I guess the only option will be like in USA occupation zone: Low level conflict and insurgency. And that will take many many years i fear.
I hope the future will prove me wrong. But after following this war closely, the liberation of Idlib seems even further away as the liberation from US occupation.
The ‘green light’ for Syria to clear terrorist rats from Idlib has nothing to do with the Russia admin. As soon as the SAA are there in numbers Idlib will be cleared, Russian or no Russian admin. Unfortunately the SAA are busy fighting fires in many places at once. With ongoing Russian help this will change soon. The rats are running low on rat-runs and their caliphate is forever shrinking.
The relationship between Russian and Syrian admins are very good and always has been. There are no cracks, just crackpots and hearsay journalists peddling propaganda.
i do wonder just how long it will be before Turksh parents begin to vent their anger at seeing increasing numbers of sons returning home in a bodybag. The Turkish leader isn’t that popular, even with his ‘allies’. He survived one coup, will he survive another? would the Russian admin save his ass again? maybe not.
Turkish troops in Syria and Libya is a quagmire waiting to happen.
Using “unfortunatly” is far out. The power even with a whole Russian recycle of old weapons for free behind it is, that Assads has no backup for having Syria and not even most of it -And should not.
And yes, Turks are same of a kind. MIllions not even wanr to be with them too and Kemals are not better.
Those countries are very poor only able to produce one great leaders each from 100 millions living there.
Libya should be at least 2 cpountries as they was and share the oil money in % after inhabitats.
To say that Russia has “nothing to do” with this or any other major decision of Assad is flat out redicolus. Assad is dependending on Russia, as it depends on Iran and other allies. And all those allies forces are coordinated by Russian military, in the joint operation rooms, but with Russian coordination and control.
This is geopolitics. Cold, hard quit pro qou; balancing interests. Nothing else. Russia has been on the record again and again saying they dont have allies in the sense of former times and like the USSR, only “partners” where interests allign. These partners include Syria, but also Turkey and Israel, which are potentially much much more valuable to Russia than Syria.
Russia obviously would prefer an agreement and alliance between Assad and Erdoan, and supported all efforts in this regard, and in Turkeys attempts to “seperate the opposition from extremists”, even though its clear for years all opposition is more of less extremist.
The first Idlib deals were made out of the hope of such a Assad-Erdogan agreement. And until the start of 2020, Russia seemed to still have had hoped for this. But at the start of this year, this had changed, which led to the massive gains of the SAA.
But when the Russians bombed and killed the 50+ Turks, and when then Turkey wreacked havoc for 24+ hours on the SAA with the drones, things went far to hot, and could have led to serious NATO-Russia confrontation. And this is where we are now.
Turkey is now even much stronger than 1-2 months ago when this happend. They wont leave, they will say they implemented the agreement, MAYBE HTS and others will be “disbanded” meaning rebranded. And then, as per Astana agreement, SAA will not be able to reconquer all of Idlib, at least with open Russian support.
Turks never leave any land they occupy. And Russia will never openly support any direct and full war of the SAA against any NATO army. That leaves, as i said, insurgency as the only real option now, as long as any of the variables dont change.
And to than unproven conspiracy theory of Erdogan being saved by Putin: There has never been, and there is not a single solid piece of hard evidence to support this. And the reality of the Russian-Turkish relationship looks totally different. Erdogan is also immensly popular, both in Turekey and abroad where Turkish immigrants live (65%+ voted for Erdogan in last vote). It is a misconception to believe the “poor” Turks dont want Erdogan. They want such a criminal, corrupt Muslim Brother clan chief. It is their culture and ideology. The opposition parties are nothing better. Turkish children are being sworn in to Erdogan as their leader and to die for him in all Turkish mosques, even in all German DTIB mosques. And that at the age before they go to high school. To comprehend the Islamistic ideology combinded with Turkish facistic ultra nationalism is very hard for any outsider, but it is defining the majority of Turks. Erdogan voters AND most opposition voters.
To Lybia: It will depend on the ability of the new EU mission and the Haftar forces to prevent more supplies and manpower by Turkey. We have seen how the GNA greatly improved, and made gains and momentum, that most, me included, have not seen coming some months ago. I still believe Haftar will win in the end, but it will depend on the support from his allies. Without it, things will go badly, when the Turks are able to further their support for Jihadi GNA.
I already think You are wrong. In greater parts of the taken-retaken territory Assads only has military control and it will remain like that too.
The only way of making freash air could be fx Russians removed those morons.
Assad even gave Afrin away – as You say for at least many years.
You are right, that in some areas of Syria, gov control is lacking, and attemps by US and its axis to exploint this are gaining ground. And many Idlib civilians are sympathinzing with the Jihadi opposition, and this wont change for the foreseeable future. But in what universe is the Jihadi rule preferable to Assads rule to you? And Assad did not give Afrin “away”. It was Kurdish arrogance of believing in US promises, and playing poker with their own people.
“Assad gave Afrin away”
That’s pure and utter BS, Putin gave Afrin to the Turks, check the 3 separate Memorandums of understanding between Russia and Turkey, Putin gave away Afrin and Northern Aleppo first, then Ilib and northern Hama, and now just recently parts of northern Al Hasakah and Ar Raqqah, and it was all thanks to MOU’s signed between Russia and Turkey, NOTHING AT ALL TO DO WITH ASSAD.
https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2746041
Search for all the MOU’s listed on this official Russian government website and tell me if Assad agreed to any of them, HE DIDN’T EVEN GET A SAY IN ANY OF THE MOU’S, AND HE DIDN’T EVEN GET TO ATTEND ANY THE NEGOTIATIONS BECAUSE HE WASN’T ALLOWED TO. So stop lying Jens, Assad’s actually vehemently opposed every single one of those Turkish/Russian MOU’s that he didn’t get a say in, so saying he gave away Afrin is just pure and utter BS Jens.
I’ve been linking official RIAC articles for years and a lot of pro Russian supporters try to tell me the site isn’t even a legitimate Russian government website, LOL, they even say the sites actually just a propaganda site from the enemy, so maybe now they’ll finally start believing what the Russians are saying if Al Masdar starts relaying the news for them. I agree with you on all your points, you obviously follow what the Russians are really saying instead of just relying on this news site, which only tells us .01% of the real news. I suggest a few pro Russian supporters [they think they’re pro Russian] also start using the official site, that way they might actually find out what the Russians are really saying, because SF very rarely tells us what the Russians are actually saying, we just get told what we want to hear on SF, which isn’t really news, it’s just propaganda. So thumbs up for both your comment and the link to Al Masdar, maybe now a few more SF readers will add the RIAC link to their browser and actually find out what the Russian government is really saying and doing.
Turkey’s just got itself into trouble with the most powerful organization/movement in the whole wide world, The New World Order, so I suspect the msm is about to turn on Turkey if it doesn’t change it’s rhetoric real quick. They’ll suffer the same fate Purin did back in 2005/6 and Trump’s suffered since he announced his intentions to run for the US presidency, and now it’s looking like the NWO is about to fix it’s evil gaze on Erdogan too, so this should get really interesting, so watch out for a sudden change in tone concerning Turkey and the way it’s about to be portrayed by the western msm. LOL, and it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy either, and I say that despite the fact I actually agree with Erdogan on the matter, so if he wasn’t such an A-hole I’d actually be sticking up for him and be taking his side on this very contentious issue. But since he is such an A-hole I’m just going to sit back and watch the western msm savage him, and also savage this excellent new policy the Turkish religious leaders are now pursuing, and which I actually agree with, but I’m not going to say one word in their defense even though I should. LOL, perfect timing, “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”, at least until we don’t need them anymore, then they can go back to being the enemy again. The New World Order, the new world in which men no longer need to marry a woman to start a family, in the new world men can now have families with other men, but in the Old World Order they couldn’t. Erdogan’s right about one thing only, the Old World Order is the only way to have happy prosperous children and families [ones that don’t commit suicide in their masses], so it’s so sad he’s wrong about everything else, he could’ve made a good champion for the Old World Order.