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This map provides a general look at the situation in the area of Tarhuna, where an intense fighting is ongoing between the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Libyan National Army (LNA). Recently, GNA forces launched an attack to capture Tarhuna, but their first offensive was repelled. Now, the main clashes are located north of the town. GNA units have captured the village of Soq al-Juma and are preparing for a second attempt to capture Tarhuna itself.
To all you guys that follow Libya: why the recent GNA success? Haftar seemed to be beating their asses pretty consistently for months now despite what looked like GNA’s pretty determined defense. Everything slowed down as LNA got closer to Tripoli – that was expected. I’m confused why the GNA is able to advance at all under the current conditions.
GNA has used its air forces and drones before – that doesn’t seem to account for their current success. Turkey has been sending over a lot of its troops and hired headchoppers for months. Did it take them this long to integrate them into the GNA operations or did something else change?
I think the GNA success is the result of the intensive Turkish support. I remember how in April 2019, the LNA was on the roll and I still admire how quick their advance was, but sadly the turkish support has compensated GNA’s lack of manpower.
The front south of Tripolis is a stalemate and I don’t understand why the LNA still launches attacks there. They have to open a new front. They have to advance towards to Mediterranean west and east of Tripolis otherwise the GNA forces inside Tripolis will continue to receive nonstop supplies. The southern Tripolis front reminds me of the Kabani front. The SAA launched numerous attacks there, but failed to make any progress, similar to the Tripolis front. Apparently the turkish support was successful. Now no side has the upper hand it seems.
Thanks, xTheWarrior22 – makes sense. I would love to know how many ‘new’ troops the GNA managed to add in the last few months. ‘Thousands’ is certainly enough to tip the scales.
If the LNA is getting new air defenses organized, then maybe the apparent lack of progress on their part is intentional. The Syrians/Russians wisely stopped their Idlib campaign when confronted with the new tactic of drone spotting for long-range Turk artillery and Turkish drone attacks. You can’t just demoralize your troops by insisting they push forward while they get shredded by drones. That’s the old-time loser Arab army strategy. Pausing, adding capability to neutralize the new threat and then moving on is the rational way to conduct campaigns.
Likewise, Haftar has to deal with the new air threats, increase in GNA troops and seaborne GNA logistics and resupply. It’s too late to just keep plowing directly forward to Tripoli hoping you prevail on shock and awe or sheer will before all your troops are dead or desert. I can’t gauge Haftar either way, and he’s completely dependent on allies to add any new capability today. I can see why Turkey figured it was worth it to throw some resources at the GNA – it didn’t take much and Turkey has a hell of a lot more to send if they want. The UAE has (or at least had) pretty deep pockets. I wonder if they (and Haftar’s allies) still have the will to counter the Turks.
I agree, hit the ports.
Maps can be deceptive, for instance the map above covers a smaller area that you may think. We need to look at the overall picture.
The overall picture is that Tripoli for all practical purposes IS Libya and nobody is ever going to legitimately govern Libya without it. Haftar just controls the opposition, a bunch of desert and some oil now. If he can’t take Tripoli, then he can’t take over the government. A long stalemate benefits the GNA. The LNA troops are not going to hang around forever watching fellow Libyans die if they don’t see some hope of victory in the near future.
Thanks for the info PV IV. I do agree, but I have a feeling that we shall soon see Egypt in as Turkey strengthens its forces. Then, it all changes.
Wow… never thought about that possibility. It would certainly bring things to a decisive end much quicker.
I wonder what Libyans would think of this today? Some of them hope Haftar and the GNA replacement would be better, some don’t think so. But what would they think about Egyptian troops in Libya? “We’re just coming in to help secure victory for your rebellion, then we’ll leave!” <– Nobody really believes that anymore no matter who says it. There's always a quid pro quo expected for foreign blood.
I don't know – maybe this time it will be different…. I'll just observe that historically, a foreign actor diving into your country's war generally means a more of your country's people are going to die regardless of the outcome. A second foreign actor means a LOT more of your people are going to die.
LNA could only win this war by taking the imperative objectives and control of the NW coast from Tunisian border to Misrata – that is (from west to east) Ras Jdir- Zuwarah (port) -Mellitah (ENI gas export/oil terminal) -Zawiyah (oil refinery and tanker terminal) – Tripoli city (government/central bank/port/Ma’itiqah AB)- Tajoura (militia bases) – Khums(port) – Misrata (2xsea ports+AB) Six months ago this was possible, now it is too late as Sarraj Effendi the Bey of Tripoli has enlisted full Turkish support. By integrating and co-ordinating air-sea-land operations the combined GNA ground forces (militia) and Turkish assets (air defense, drone recce and UCAV strikes, naval gun support etc.) have built strong layered defenses for Tripoli and Misrata such that these main objectives are now impregnable. Furthermore the enemy is now capable of mounting counter-offensive operations as seen in the NW where LNA has lost the Sabrata-Surman coastal sector and retreated to Watiya AB/Uqba bin Nafa. LNA failed to progress after taking Sirt and has been stalled behind the Wadi Zemzem line for months, unable to advance even to Abu Qrayn. Ditto stalemate in Tripoli south and now the enemy, using Syrian jihadi cannon fodder is pushing LNA back from contact lines from three axes : Ramla-Togar to Ben Ghashir (inactive Tripoli Intl Airport), Ain Zara, and from Qara Bouli SW to Zatarnah. Enemy thrust to Tarhunah from Msallata halted at Dawun but still developing to the north.
The puzzle is, for all the talk of securing active support of allies UAE, Saudi, Egypt, Russia, Greece on the ground the LNA has so far conspicuously failed to even threaten, let alone take, the obvious imperative objectives listed above ? To take just one example, for months LNA had forces deployed within 5 kms (5 KM !!) of the MSR Tripoli-Misrata at Qawa near Qara Bouli yet never cut the highway or took fire control to stop enemy traffic. Similarily, for all the talk about no-fly zones or “targeting” enemy shipping the massive Turkish inflow of arms, heavy weapons, ACVs, personel has continued, almost daily. Apart from a few isolated, inaccurate, pinprick rocket/mortar strikes Ma’iqah airbase has not been affected, ditto Misrata and seaport which continues to receive, every day, more and more war stores.
I for one, am sick of seeing countless images of newly graduating LNA troops, and lines of brand new ACV, technicals, SPG, Grad 107s etc.. and hearing boasts of “final battles ” but somehow nothing seems to actually deploy in time or in the right place. Instead all I see is selfies of rag-tag units, supposedly LNA affiliated engaging in small unit clashes but clearly lacking in discipline or organized support and yelling “Allah akbar ” If this is the best the LNA can do then God help us as the intiative has been handed to the enemy.
Thanks for all that detail, abuqahwa. That pretty much covers all the reasons this war continues to be so confusing to me. The LNA rolled through the sparsely-defended desert villages pretty quickly, then seemed to grind to a halt before continuing to any and all of the important objectives you listed.
I’m trying to guess Haftar’s particular strategy here, but there really doesn’t appear to be any besides wishful thinking and waging a costly war against easy targets but without any conviction to take the most important ones.
I have to wonder what the average LNA soldier has been thinking as they watched this unfold month after month. If they’re there to fight for the future of Libyan people instead of just fighting for Haftar, then they must be getting pretty damn demoralized by now. Either way, they’ll just end up with different foreign owners waiting for their chance to screw over the Libyan people yet again.
Love these updates SF but it is “intense fighting” or “an intense fight”. Sorry to be a pedant but I used to teach English and old habits die hard. Imperfect English aside I still value your information and analysis more than the most articulate corporate presstitutes.