Click to see the full-size map
These maps show the current military situation in central Syria and possible directions of the expected government advance on Deir Ezzor (according to pro-government sources).
It should be noted that these scenarios partly ingore a threat posed by ISIS units deployed north of the Homs-Palmyra road. Thus, most likely the advance on Deir Ezzor will significantly depend on the ability of the Syrian army and its allies to counter this threat.
Click to see the full-size map
Yes but if the close that pocket.. they have their backs cover and can move to deir ezzor from two fronts.
The general armchair warrior in me says let the two prongs should converge somewhere west in between Al Sukhnah and Dier Ezzor. The landscape here is flatter and makes a rapid advance easier. Even if the two prongs met at Al Suknah, there will always be resistance from both the east and west flanks. To top that up, they will be further away from Dier Ezzor than the first option.
My worries for that spreading out is different. It longer and longer supply lines with no reserve.
There is no pocket. Like telling if You smile very, very much – there is no head.
I would bet that they will box Isis like they did with the Americans in Al-Tanf and then they will procede along the Euphrates toward Deir Ezzor
The SDF are proceeding along the Euphrates. The Russians just bombed ISIS on highway 4 (Euphrates road) to help the SDF advance to Deir Ezzor.
No they are not.
The SDF and the YPG have a whole military council based in Deir Ezzor. And they just trained a whole new battalion, and the Deir Ezzor leader/hero who is Arab is very positive on his allies outlook and support for the Deir Ezzor campaign, and Russia did just give them air support.The SAA and the Ba’athist might want to consider negotiating with the SDF and the Syrian people on the democratic confederation of the country.
I dont believe a word…
When I see it ill belive it.
where would they be doing the boxing?
saa Nord maadan-deir ez zor, saa Mitte suknah, sholah, dir ez zor, saa Süd abu kamal, mayadan the same time.
I didn’t know Von Leeb, Von Bock and Von Rundstedt are commanders of the SAA.
that is the problem
Bock died before the war ended. According to news some 2 SAA generals should have been killed as well.
English mother fucker! Do you speak it? https://youtu.be/rNkLCR7TT3s
HAHAHHHAHHA
A broad front approach from vest to est?
Rubbish. There are hardly any front now.
this is not big area. half DEZ province
It is in the interest of the Syrian government to keep several options open. That forces ISIS to spread its defenses and allows the government to be opportunistic where it attacks.
Yet I would expect Sukhnah to have a high priority as it lies on an important road crossing on what is probably the main supply road towards East Hama.
It is not necessary to take Sukhnah , but to surround and siege it .
Yes, its very hard to understand, why they spread out troops in stead of just take it. Its very difficult to understand why they have have the maybee demolized troops at the point at the Iraqian border, when they are mobile in the rright way and could have attacked Suknah from east.
why is not necessary to take it?
Sukhnah needs to be taken , but only after Deir Azzor is relieved . If it is sieged , meaning surrounded , with no supplies going in , and only civilians coming out , it can be taken latter , after ISIS has run out of supplies . Don’t waste a month on two thousand or fewer men , DE is critical .
Yes I agree DEZ is utmost importance
I say go for the Euphrates and move slowly along to Deir Ezzor, only one flank to defend and you are taking out their operating bases from which they launch raids into the desert, still risky and is slower but optimal geostrategically.
yea that does seem to be less riskier, but what would the other pincer (yellow) go or do? or would they join with the red pincer (tigers im assuming)?
Id have forces near T-2 poised to move, Forces near Sukhna ready to move and move first to the Euphrates, Isis would have to calculate the risk and subsequent placement of their forces, Deir Ezzor isnt far down the Euphrates and if they moved forces to counter this pincer then the others would advance.
Still, any advance towards either dear ezzor or the Euphrates would have to watch out for their flanks, except maybe the tigers. They could move towards the Euphrates and only have to worry about their southern flank (since they are at the northernmost point), and then move down to dear ezzor
Flanks ??????????? Its an octupussy with only flanks, and You wil make one more ???????????
Each advance is going to have flanks, the Euphrates one has only one however.
I see to many and include Palmyra, Sukna, T2 and the deserstormers,. Its very dangerous. Long and thin supply lines ad those fronts cant help each other.
And in the middle ISIS can go anyway they want with full power, if they troops left for that. I hope not.
In the end, the SAA will do what the SAA will do.
They learned a harsh lesson last year in their failed advance on Taqbah, failed because of unsecured flanks.
Either the SAA has learned its lesson, or they get another one. The risks are somewhat reduced as IS has been weakend. On the other hand, if IS gets a chance, they will take it.
Yes this is a good read up on it –
http://spioenkop.blogspot.com.au/2016/06/no-end-in-sight-failed-tabqa-offensive.html
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/33e489859d5a628c70ac5315faa3ab62a057d00a209de8c3e5e6b75199328038.png
Indeed.
No Jens, you did not understand my strategy…
Yes, Your stragegy is to give You enemy as many chances as possible.
Wrong again mister Jens Holm, please read and attempt to understand my strategem again, or I will be assigning you homework :DDDDD
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c5d521fb5b8b11579f7abd007c4b1082d0eb6126c9df30d60e374b012e936fe1.png
Russia is now bombing to help the SDF advancement to Deir Ezzor from Raqqa. The SDF will probably be past Ma’adan within 24 hours. It’s a race between the SDF and SAA now. Damascus and the Ba’athists refuse to negotiate with the confederated councils and unite the country, so it’s a race between the revolution and the Ba’athists.
They have no troops for that.
The Russian are providing air support to the SDF.
No, they are not. Rubbish.
Do you have any evidence of this?
I’m happy for you all to be in disbelief. It means your elitist bureaucrats in Damascus won’t be able to respond quickly nor coherently enough.
Do you have any evidence of this?