This map provides a general look at the military situation in the Palmyra countryside on July 26, 2017. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its allies have liberated the village of Baghliyah and nearby hills from ISIS terrorists. Government forces are now aiming to liberate Dabat Milli, Taliah Sharqiyah and Rasm Hamidah.
Click to see the full-size map
We all hoped to see ISIL smashed around Palmira in a big WW2 style artillery barrage followed by mighty armored punch – Soviet old school kind of thing. In stead SAA chose their version of Death by Thousand Pinpricks – so very Sun Tzu – Spring roles and rice – Chinese option. Both methods work for me as long as Allah supply of fresh virgins for fallen jihadists is kept strained to the limits…
You’d probably see that WW2 style artillery barrage, that is, if the SAA had any of its prewar levels of man and firepower. Since it’s but a shadow of a shadow of that it has to be the 1000 pinpricks.
Actually last time SAA was able to stage that kind of show was back in 1970s. By the 2000s they were still able to use 100s of arty pieces for fireworks, but the rest of it (tanks and BMPs rushing the breaches) not so much. The point is the area around Palmira is not your guns&tanks blitzkrieg country. And Syrian war is not the war of massive charges by conscripts and fat reservists. Going slow and careful in mountainous areas with prepared defenses and rushing surprised terrorists on flat and lightly defended terrain is most effective and sensible tactics…
Not to mention that when they did that kind of show in 1973, they got utterly butt fucked by the IDF, as they did not do it well enough. The Yom Kippur war was not exactly the SAA’s finest hour.
I agree. Although it was very close call. SAA forward divisions were literally few 1000 meters away from gaining important high ground on the first day, that would probably made IDF counter attack a blood bath for them. It was Hafez Assad’s stubbornness and stomping out all lower rank initiative that helped turned the battle. And to give some due credit – SAA later defensive actions were pretty fierce – even IDF generals admitted so…
To clear the Hama/Homs countryside will take much longer than the liberation of DE City and CS. But we are realistic and patient. To cook well fortified ISIS chicken in a rough terrain needs a good preparation – and Hawks, SAA and allies are well prepared. All these ISIS fanatics there won’ t see anything else than dying own fighters but never another place on earth.
I suspect that the Desert Hawks were removed from the Homs battle due to their disgraceful conduct of proudly displaying the severed heads of ISIS terrorists.
If so, that would be very stupid. But displaying should be forbidden because of the international sights, law and sentiments. Personally I have nothing against this special treatment.
The Hawks are in Latakia now where there is a threat and presumably forces from there can be relocated in necessary.
It may sound old fashioned but moral discipline must be enforced in any formal army. Not to to so by the officers in charge merely creates anarchic conditions and a loss in fighting capability.
In addition the last thing that Russia desires is to be linked to the barbarism of US Coalition backed terror groups.
You are right, it is not old fashioned. But it is a pity to lose a well trained formation at a direct front line.
It is indeed. There is an inherent ‘discipline ‘ issue with privately funded militias or Contractors as we recognise them in the West. Blackwater in Iraq were also responsible for atrocities that even embarrassed the US military. Partly because the contractors were caught murdering civilians by the independent press.
The Desert Hawks undoubtedly have good experience and military skills. It is important to remove those who were directly responsible for the beheading’s and those officers who turned a blind eye to this. The Desert Hawks will then be able to prove their valour in battle and not by arbitrarily cutting the throats of handcuffed prisoners who have probably committed heinous crimes. In any organised society that is the decision of courts that are accountable to the people.
I do wonder why ISIS holds on to this ground so fanatically? What strategic ground is there here to be held so dearly while its collapsing elsewhere? It can’t be the hope of a repeat of the 2nd fall of Palmyra, it’s no longer a vulnerable sailliant, ISIS’ withdrawal from the south has seen to that. It can’t be the hope that holding on here will delay further SAA advances, the SAA is advancing near Raqqa, slowly near Sukhna and around the T2 station.
Are they going for yet another Nazi analogy and creating some national redoubt? Some ground favorable to long term guerilla warfare long after their state has crumbled into the dustbin of history? And this is the ground they’ve selected to make their final stand?
Current ISIL goal is not so much preserving territory – rather to inflict as much casualties as possible on advancing SAA – hoping to shatter moral of the troops but also of the civilian population supporting the government. Besides, the area is defenders friendly – so why not use it. The odds for ISIL are better in the hills around Palmira then in the flats of the desert or Euphrates valley. Also, ISIL leadership is preparing to shift gears and start fighting guerilla war soon and this salient is a perfect guerilla country in every sense – hilly, defensible, smack in the geographical heart of the country and close to strategic road networks and oil/gas fields – rich pickings for raids and diversions. ISIL is not ready for a final stand yet, my friend…
After bleeding significantly in the area and loosing most of its heavy equipment, ISIS without any stolen revenue will be a ragtag force, any attempt of insurgency on their part will be minimal and SAA should be able to handle any possible annoyances.
ISIS holds onto this territory because that is what their master Israel wants, its part of the Yilon plan for great racist supremacist Israel. ISIS / Israel holding this position was supposed to prevent the SAA from getting to Deri Azur and allow Israel’s other puppets the kurds and the USSA and FSA to take Eastern Syria but it is not working out so well and the Kurds appear to be having second thoughts about dying for racist supremacist Jews who think all non Jews including Kurds are lower the https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/65272ba33698043a57e8677e4dfb9b290550d79a0d39a7be6eeff14a12a9f86e.jpg n animals.
ISIS Is trapped, they have no retreat routes and they decided to fight to death. In order to minimize casualties, Russian SAA and allies should pulverize ISIS defensive networks with direct and direct fire, involving long range artlilery and MLRS using cluster munitions, Suk 25 and 34 for aerial bombardment, maybe even T22s for heavy payload drops, Kaliber missile strikes for pinpoint targeting of well identified targets, Tochka and possibly Iskander short range ballistic missiles.
There should be some awesome fireworks in eliminating the remanats of a useful proxy for the US.
Get rid of the Green areas now.