This map shows the military situation in the countryside of Raqqah on April 23, 2017.
Click to see the full-size map
Military Situation In Raqqah Countryside On April 23, 2017 (Map Update)
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Slowly, slowly, Raqqah is coming in sight.
The fall of Taqba would free up many fighters, however, nobody on the outside can really tell when it will fall.
At the same time, SDF is building forces in case Turkey attacks them from behind in order to help their allies of IS. Was it just 60kms Turkey had to advance from Tell Abyad to break through the SDF lines to reinforce IS, now they will have to advance 70 to 75 kms, SDF is building strategic depth.
I find it hard to calculate the chance of Erdogan being mad enough to try an outright invasion of Syria. If he attacks there, it will most likely take some 20.000 turkish troops with some rebel rabble as “reinforcements” to have a real advance in Tell Abyad.In my mind Turkey will not invade Syria but maybe they will try to genocide te last jezidis in Iraq, though they will name it something else of course.
I doubt if the US will allow that to happen and would supply the Kurds with the arms to drive them out while cutting off Erdogan from being resupplied with munitions and replacement parts for his NATO equipped military.
It appears to me that the SDF will close in on Raqqa while leaving ISIS an escape route to the west where they can cross the lower dam to get over the river. Then when that traffic slows to a trickle then they’ll move in on the city while leaving that route open so the remaining rats with sense can flee.
I think the mad Sultan is more talk than action. Good note about the Baath dam road, it may have some very large craters in it? A constant pain in the ass to repair. Hoping that SDF take the N shore soon. But this is only a hope.
This seems reasonable but, not for nothing, we are talking about Erdogan being mad, and to my mind deluded too, so it is possible he will talk himself into a position of believing the US will cooperate or, at the least, only verbally object.
They send contratulations on his election as Dictator in Chief, did they not?
Do not count on saner voices reasoning against Erdogan. He does not listen.
Traitory Erdogan’s Turkey will pay the price… We, Russians, are not an angry nation, while we have a long term memory.
A long memory is not always the bettsr option
Sometimes, one just has to let it go.
As for Erdogan, he can go by the drain.