The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have been developing momentum against ISIS north and southeast of Raqqah.
This week, the SDF has captured the Sadcob Fuel Company and the Grain Silos near Hunaydah and the villages of Bir al-Davd, Bir Hajj am-Muzafi and Bir Akhu Hadlah south of Hunaydah. SDF units have also engaged ISIS in the Division 17 Army Base noth of Raqqah.
Click to see the full-size map
Is SDF really aiming at preventing SAA from participating in the battle for Raqqa!!!
Looks like it. and the indication is that SDF is advancing south, but not East, which SDF is keeping open escape route for the ISIS. In my analysis SDF will try delay SAA reach Raqqa and plugin escape route from South. If SDF will not allowed SAA use highway 4 going south, then we can be 100% sure SDF is and will behave aggressively to SAA
I hate the SDF I really do
Very good.
We will soon see, what the intensions are. You seemes to forget a finger down south also stop ISIS from above running away from SAA as well as ISIS as a trap.
I can see no reason for SDF wishing more ISIS people for the defence of Raqqa. Its a very unusual assumption You make.
YPG took much heat from the weak SAA west af Al Bab and were helped by them making a SAA zone north west of manbij for it.
When one looks at the map in the report, there is no indication at present that SDF is preventing SAA from participating in the battle for Raqqah.
When one looks at it from a political view, the SDF has no reason at all for the SAA to be involved in the battle for Raqqah. Participation of the SAA in this battle means that Assad will have a position in the aftermath and one can see why the SDF would not like that. It would have serious strategic implication were SAA to participate.
So, if SAA wants to participate in the battle for Raqqah, maybe also on DeZ, Assad will have to offer something significant in return.
In my view that would be three things : Acceptance of a federation, a corridor between Manbij and Afrin and heavy arms. Furthermore, there should be an agreement on the future of Raqqah and its countryside.
Without these on offer, there is no point for the SAA to participate, at least not in the view of the SDF.
SAA can hardly support any heavy at Raqqa having too long and too bad logistics. Only a few tanks as long range artillery could be usefull at the southérn side.
SAA gave that up when there offensives failed last summer and them going after al tanf.
Raqqa is an Arab city, not Kurdish. Once this is over the SDF will NOT get to keep Raqqa… that much is certain.
If I was the SAA command I’d let the SDF do the hard work (and take losses) and then move in afterwards.
The lines are not as you say. Raqqah ha(s)(d) kurdish quarters and was up to 25% kurdish.
Furthermore, the SDF is multi-ethnic, the precentage of arabs is rising steadily and they have many recruits out the Raqqah region and refugees joining them.
So, SDF is to a certain extent local.
Agree, Gary Sellars are far out. Might not be allowed to read uncensured news for years.
BORK; BLA-BLA-BLA. Its not even quite true anymore since so many farmers has left the toal dry land north and west of it and now are(were) in Raqqa.
Rojava and Raqqa improvised Counsil has already agreed Raqqa Counsil could do as they wish and they only will help them in military matters if asked for until ISIS is gone.
So Raqqa can choose to be, what they want. be a coalition with the yellow part, be themselves, joing Assads as they wish or can.
You must be joking about SAA. SAA would not even be close to Raqqa and hardly exist if it wasnt for kurds and now SDF. SAA cant take Raqqa today at all even it has been made much weaker.
What a joke hahahhah.
They should have a medal for the highest stupidity for that. A lot of people there was killed spoendable for illusionistic honor. Tabqa airport before that was known for ISIS killing SAA soldiers as a massacre, so they knew it would be dended and more to it.
There are no reason for SAA should be involved in any taking of Raqqa. All is having progress in a well prepared plan weakening it and make it taken or/and out of ISIS order.
Its more relevant to take to Tabqa and west of it. Its more relevent to take Deeir El Zor, which has the same seize as Raqqa. From Deir el Zor by Pamyra SAA can reach the last heavy populated area posseded by ISIS and meet Iraqians.
After that SAA and SDF should talk and try to avoid any confrontations. But ISIS should be eliminated down to the last wadi, where You can get a cup of water.