PHOTO: REUTERS
This article is based on conversations with people of Azerbaijani origin as well as current citizens of Azerbaijan.
While Azerbaijan – if we look at its macroeconomic performance – is a relatively developed country, the real internal social-economic situation, as well as that around the world in general, is deteriorating. This situation is further complicated by cronyism in the government as well as a disproportion in personal income and ownership of property inside the country. The speed of the reactive processes increased 3-4 years ago.
The Azerbaijani capital of Baku bursts with elite restaurants and hotels. Corporations involved in the country’s oil and gas industry are controlled by just a few families. At the same time, ordinary citizens suffer from unemployment and the inability to find a job with a competitive salary (100-150 USD in Azerbaijan). Furthermore, there are no means of social mobility for ordinary citizens.
Law enforcement is designed to defend the interests of the elite, 100-200 people, who are real stakeholders, and their inner circle. The fundamental rule of equal protection under the law does not work. The ruling elite and their friends and relatives live by their own rules while the life of the rest of the population (95%) is regulated by other norms.
Another factor is that Azerbaijan is an Islamic state incorporating both Sunni and Shia followers, including their radical components. However, both sects have something in common. They both oppose the Western-style conspicuous consumption and Western values. Social inequity is actively fueling the hate aimed at representatives of the Azerbaijani elites and some members of the upper-middle class. One of the Azerbaijani citizens contacted by SouthFront said that the upper class sees its nation as slaves.
All this created conditions for the further growth of social tensions and the spread of radical ideas. Analyzing the recent developments in the city of Ganja, it’s possible to agree with the official attitude of the Azerbaijani authorities that some radical organizations or foreign powers used the situation and created the July 10 incident. However, this does not lift responsibility for the complicated situation in the region from the Azerbaijani government.
There are a few indicators that the July 10 incident was highly likely to have been inspired by a radical power.
The demonstration outside the local administration headquarters in Ganja involved just a small number of people: 200-300 demonstrators in the city with a population of over 750,000. The demonstrators demanded an independent investigation of the recent murder attempt on the mayor of Ganja, Elmar Valiyev.
Unus Safarov injured Valiyev and his bodyguard on July 3. The Azerji government says that the attack was inspired by some foreign power. Local sources say that the attack was a result of a complicated social and economic situation in the area amid a very low popularity of the mayor. Safarov was detained following the attack.
Understanding the roots of the situation, two officers went to negotiate with the demonstrators. They were likely aiming to convince them that some effort will be made to investigate the Safarov case properly.
The officers were surrounded by a small group of radicalized people who confronted them and stabbed the officers to death. There are two possible explanations for this:
- The killing of the officers was a pre-planned provocation by some radical group (most likely a terrorist group) or other;
- This group of people was volatile because of their personal experience of interaction with authorities (government officials, law enforcement etc.) and because of the recent impulse caused by the Safarov case and its media coverage. In this case, the situation have escalated by itself for objective reasons.
In any case, the authorities, as in any state, are the main side responsible for this situation.
For example, in neighboring Kazakhstan, another country with an “authoritarian government”, the social economic situation is better and tensions are much lower. The last notable riots took place in Kazakhstan in 2011 when radical groups exploited the then complicated social and economic situation. After the riots were suppressed, the Kazakh government took active measures to find and eliminate the roots of the social tension to prevent any such situation in the future.
The recent incident in Ganja shows that the situation in Azerbaijan may develop further in a reactive manner. This may destabilize the situation in the entire region.
The current situation in Azerbaijan is also a wake-up signal for Russia, which could be considered at least partly comparable to Azerbaijan. If the Russian government ignores social and economic problems in its country, it may face problems similar to those now experienced by Baku.
Putin raised the pension age in Russia above the average life expectancy for the average male. Any of you read ‘Animal Farm’ and recall the fate of the work-horse?
Vile statist propagandists will always whine on about the death of a ‘police officer’, as if the boot boys of the state have a greater value than the citizen. So of course SF chooses this NON-STORY to promote.
Meanwhile the atrocity in Cameroon gets ZERO coverage of SF. What is the rule of ‘news’ coverage here? Jew atrocities against humanity are decribed using the words of OFFICIAL JEW PRESS RELEASES on SF. Atrocities against the ethnic russians of Novorussian are banned from coverage here (what an irony given the origins of SF).
The truth about the USSR, and its current remnants, is that the USSR had tremendous success PACIFYING the various ethnic groups all across that region. Everyone was leveled, and for most this was a significant level upwards. Human rights at the level most ordinary people understand the term were fantastic in the USSR, at the cost of the rights of more advanced people.
But the USSR failed to evolve economically as the West evolved, so the USSR collapsed in order to allow the people there the same access to goods as enjoyed by the West.
But the post USSR control systems are slowly rotting, and the unusual and enlightened advances that communism brought to so many ordinary people (post Stalin) are ending. But is this NEWS? I think not.
What is NEWS is that vile zionist appeaser, Putin’s relationship with world jewry and the wahhabi bloc. The atrocity in Cameroon, where an Israeli trained death squad proudly filmed themselves murdering two women and their little children, claiming the right to emulate the jews in Gaza, is the face of evil today on this planet, not some nonsense in Azerbaijan.
With jew controlled media it is as much the stories the jew outlet doesn’t cover as the stories it does cover.
World jewry helps Putin keep his grip in Russia with the old “better the devil you know” trick. Now Putin is utterly confident in his position, of course he parties with the demonic jew who rules Israel, and sells s-400 systems to all the members of the wahhabi bloc. Of course Putin even more so votes at the UNSC to support the jew wars- and he will most certainly vote to support the coming Iran War.
Jews have worked very hard to build up massive support for Putin in the ‘alternative’ space. But now the jews are carring out EXTERMINATION CAMP level atrocities in Gaza with the full approval of Putin, the game is up, and it is all too obvious what Putin really represents.
But the jews feel free to be transparent now, for they know it is too late for Humanity to stop them. Trump is going to announce the Iran War this September, and murder tens of millions of Humans in Iran within a few months. King jew and Trumps world tour (and both of them meeting zionist appeaser Putin) is all about the coming Iran War.
Between now and then, SF will carry on pretending everything is fine.
In Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Georgia etc. the Israeli secret snipers and terrorists assassinating patriotic politicians by shooting and IEDs etc in these countries but I don’t know who cover up these Israeli secret snipers and terrorists in these countries.
The wages of sin…
Wow, that was a quick jump from Azerbaijan to Russia . . wonder why he didn’t jump to the USA instead because huge segments of the population are underpaid, overtaxed and ignored. Burdened by a rampant national debt and failed healthcare schemes, sucked dry and abused by a FED that has always been in private, unAmerican hands and riddled with Zionists and ultra extremist liberals in Congress, it could easily happen here . .
I called it. the US was trying to overthrow a Physical link between Russia and Iran. Furthermore if US actually succeeds in taking control of Azerbajani land they will not only challenge the black sea but they will gain Oil. The USA Not Israel knows that if they gain control of this territory. Russia will First lose all influence in the Middle east, then Africa and Finally China. Russia Must Place its best on the Border with Turkey, The Americans Wanted a Hot war this whole time The Ural Moutains are the Ultimate goal. 100 megatons X2
There is a key element that has been mentionned in this article : ethninicity. 30% minimum of Azerbaijanis does not identify themselves with the new official national narrative under Aliyev.
So far it seems only one relatively small Shia community was involved in the riots, the Tats. The radical Islamism excuse is largely exagerated since the Tats are mostly a pacific rural people. Just an excuse so that Alyev and his clan continue to cling to his cash machine without much western interference or criticism. This is why Azerbaijan get suddenly closer to Russia together with the spread of the so called spring revolutions……
But economic situation is catastrophic and the country will always be on the verge of bankrupcy if the barrel stays under 55 too long. Aliyev is walking on a volcano again, like in 2016. Sooner or later, he will get sacked and I bet on a violent end for him. The croud in Baku is often bloody.
isn’t barrel 80$?
and still things are going bonanza. Not only huge amount of cash are funneled but the remaining money is used for stupid lavish events. 55 is a barreer ard which central bank will have to depreciate again the Manat to keep up. Considering that Soviets pumped most of the oil and every year the production is decleaning since the pic in 2012/13, usd 55 is a fluctuating level. Aliev pin all his hopes on new gasfields, but not sure he will make it until their exploitation.
didn’t they start the export of gas last week?
last time I checked the big fields where due to open in the early 2020s.
so on top of current export, more volume to come? i don’t see, how is it a bad thing for the economy.
Volumes will not be anough. The anatolian gas pipe will need additionnal Iranian or Turkmen gas to justify the expense… Azerbaijani economy is almost only reduced to oil while not much oil/gas reserves are lef, last significant discovery was in 2011 despite they are hysterically looking for more fields. 50% of the gdp is directly related to oil income, 85% of the exports. Typical Dutch disease case. They will feel very sharply any hint the crude will take. Meanwhile as written in the article, the vast majority of population face unemployment, lowest wages of the Caucasus and inflation specially for first necessity items, in a highly corrupted and inequal cou try. I hardly see how some few millions cube gas could change the fragile patterns of Azerbaijani economy.
sorry to ask you instead of researching myself, but do you happen to know the volume of the pipeline and the accessible reserves for gas (as well as oil i guess for the other pipeline) in Azerbaijan?
No idea. I remember that financial times was estimating about 10/15 years remaining production for crude, and that when fully operational, gasfields will be able to satisfy gas consumption equivalent to hungary, slovenia and georgia. Noticable but not game changing.