On December 30 and 31 reports appeared that Turkey had oredered their proxies deployed near the northern Syrian town of Manbij to end the state of emergency and withdraw from the frontline with the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
However, despite these reports no indications of real de-escalation on the ground have been observed so far. Furthermore, more and more Turkish battle tanks appear to be moving to the areas bordering the SDF-held part of Syria
Separately, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) came with a new report claiming that Syrian Army troops have started withdrawing from positions north of Manbij where they have recently been deployed. If this is confirmed, the army withdrawal will open a new window for a possible Turkish military operation in the area.
It should be noted that a similar situation was observed during the battle for Afrin in 2018. Initially, Syrian Army troops entered the Afrin region with an aim to prevent Turkish military operation. But the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) refused to allow the return of government institutions to the area and continued release various demands to the Damascus government. Then, the army troops withdrew and the Turkish Armed Forces backed up by their proxies captured the city of Afrin from the YPG.
The Kurds are a problem for both the Turks and the Syrians, as are the Jews. And with the US withdrawal still questionable, despite Trump’s tweets today, the US controlled by Jews has to be judged by what it does, not what Trump says. Who has a history of saying one thing and doing another.
Until the Russian equipment can demonstrate in battle that it’s capable of taking down not only ordnance, but launch platforms also, as in IAF fighters. The US withdrawal is doubt. Russia’s export sales of these systems will be impaired by their recent complete defeat by the IAF as having no deterrent value against NATO fighters. And Russia’s value as an ally and security guarantor will also be impaired until this defeat by the Jews is addressed and resolved.
It was understandable and justifiable that an escalation with the Jews was to be avoided when the war was taxing the capabilities of the Syrian government coalition earlier on. But now with the defeat and containment of the Jew’s and their collaborator’s proxy terrorists nearly complete. And the joint Turkish/Syrian operation against the secessionist Kurds progressing. The IDF’s escalation options are significantly reduced. Any type of ground invasion that would face a combined Syrian, Russian, Iranian, Iraqi, Hezbollah, and possibly Turkish response is unlikely. As would be a naval operation. The IDF is also unlikely to use artillery or surface to surface missile strikes that would draw return fire.
This leaves only mass airstrikes as the Israeli’s go to option. If the S-300s are effective against non stealth fighters, that takes away that option. Which leaves the Jews with a small fleet of stealth fighters incapable of mass airstrikes, and possibly vulnerable to more advanced air defense systems that could be employed. If the S-300s are ineffective. Russia’s position will be weakened further. And the US withdrawal may called off completely. And the FUKUS axis may return to further provocations.
At this time, the Jews have succeeded in one upmanship by calling the Russian’s bluff and raising the stakes. They may be playing Russian roulette with a loaded revolver, but at this time they’re winning at it.
At this time, the Jews have succeeded in one upmanship by calling the Russian’s bluff and raising the stakes. They may be playing Russian roulette with a loaded revolver, but at this time they’re winning at it. https://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02500/Russian_roulette_2500016k.jpg
kid stop wasting pixel space.
How so?
because your conclusions are very far from the truth you claim you posting here as well your analysis of what is happening on the ground and why.
Feel free to disprove what I’ve written. Until you do your criticism doesn’t mean much.
trying to disprove what some one writes, it be a fools quest. Beside the facts on the ground speak for themselves for any one who is able to read them and understand the whole picture and not use selective memory and judge by one pixel rather than the whole.
When and if you write something that worth debating and not the copy and paste you do most of the time I give it a serious consideration answering you to the point. At the moment you was talking to your self and drinking my coffee I decided until my coffee is done to keep you company so you dont sound like a person speaking to itself.
What is it about S-300s currently have zero deterrent value against IAF fighters that you don’t understand?
Richard…………. what should worry you is not what I dont understand, is the fact you always seem to be missing the forest focusing on the tree. As for your rambling about S300 and IAF…. if and when S300 are used against nato planes then we know also if they are effective or not. Until then all someone can do is understand the specs of each weapon also understand the ability of the air force attacking, in electronic warfare and then he can speculate pro or against.
You obviously are not educated enough in this type of area to be able do more than parrot something you read and is the conclusions, of someones you may believe but as ignorant as you are on the subject of war and strategies, that involve the whole of the globe. You also seem to be confusing the orders to the syrians only to defend themselves not to attack, with what S300 can do or not.
Now go wash your face wake up and try not to be a pest, to the pixels here.
“You also seem to be confusing the orders to the syrians only to defend themselves not to attack,”
They were attacked because the S-300s aren’t currently a deterrent against the IAF. So your contention that deterrence isn’t an issue is nonsense. And using the S-300s when they’re attacked is defending themselves.
Why were the Americans & Israel so upset & strongly objected when Syria received the S300. If they already know the system doesnt work why kick up a fuss. This makes no sense. It looks to me like the Syrians havent even used the S300 yet so you cant make any claims as to its effectiveness.
no they have not used the S300 yet, only the radars of them are used, for the time.
It appears for the time being Syrian air defence is using the older S200 & modern Pantsirs to target incoming missiles but they arent using the S300 to hit IAF planes, this could be for some operational or political reason.
no is because israeli planes have not entered syrian airspace if they do they will be hit. As long they fly over Lebanon the orders are to engage missiles but not the platforms for the time been.
The SADF obviously took down planes over the sea and Israel and there are multiple reports of planes being shot at outside of Syrian airspace from multiple sources.
So Syrian air defence works then. If they successfully hit planes with older S200s then surely S300 would be far more dangerous.
The S-200 hit rate is low, how much better the S-300’s is has yet to be determined.
well the jews get what they wanted….u folks all dont catch the drift……U R ALL hanging on their threads..BELIEVING what they want U to believe…U have to choose a side….Get angry on ONE side…..Make them turn UPSIDEDOWN…..Have them GOJIM go at one another FOR PURE BS ( as your bs s-300 there..S-4000 here..etc)
DIVIDE and CONQUER
The Agenda
A one world governmnet with jerusalem as its capital, under satanic jewish leadership
ALL NATIONS that RECOGNIZE the illegal satanic evil entity named israel ARE part of the AGENDA.including russia,usa,uk,china,eu,etc…
so keep believing in good usa or bad usa or good russia or bad russia or good uk or bad uk………thats the theatre play of the JEWS for U the GOJIM!!!!!!!!!!!
WE ALL HAVE A COMMON ENEMY
JEWS. and until u have debunked “alice in Wonderland” .. and wake the fuck up…they will achieve their goals.
From the Jewish ” holy ” book the Talmud
“ALL NON JEWS ARE GOJIM, ALL NON JEWISH WOMEN ARE WHORES”
well we are not all like you kid so we have you to tell us what we understand and what we dont. If that make you feel use full and help you pass the day, you have my blessings.
Carry on………
“Why were the Americans & Israel so upset & strongly objected when Syria received the S300”
Evidently that’s changed. The S-300s currently have no deterrent value against the IAF and the US is in the process of slowing or stopping the withdrawal. Those are the facts, I deal with facts.
well the jews get what they wanted….u folks all dont catch the drift……U R ALL hanging on their threads..BELIEVING what they want U to believe…U have to choose a side….Get angry on ONE side…..Make them turn UPSIDEDOWN…..Have them GOJIM go at one another FOR PURE BS ( as your bs s-300 there..S-4000 here..etc) DIVIDE and CONQUER
The Agenda A one world governmnet with jerusalem as its capital, under satanic jewish leadership ALL NATIONS that RECOGNIZE the illegal satanic evil entity named israel ARE part of the AGENDA.including russia,usa,uk,china,eu,etc…
so keep believing in good usa or bad usa or good russia or bad russia or good uk or bad uk………thats the theatre play of the JEWS for U the GOJIM!!!!!!!!!!!
WE ALL HAVE A COMMON ENEMY JEWS. and until u have debunked “alice in Wonderland” .. and wake the fuck up…they will achieve their goals.
From the Jewish holy book the Talmud
“ALL NON JEWS ARE GOJIM, ALL NON JEWISH WOMEN ARE WHORES”
Well the S300s wont be a deterrent to Israel until they are actually used & bring a plane down.
as someone suggested to you already take your pills and come back to reality and forgive me if I dont continue following a fool in his foot steps into his illusionary world.
You tried to debate the issues and when you were disproven you responded with a dodge and immature name calling and insults, because you have no rational response, just stupidity.
They will use it when they will be ready and when they will want to use it. Sure you have the common sense to understand that the syrian and russian general staffs don’t work by your thoughts, or mines, or the thoughts of anyone here. I’m going to repeat the information that I gave to you, an representant of the russian general staff (the news must be in Sputnik, or in Almasdar, or in both sources), between a month and 15 days ago, said that the syrian crews of the S300 will be ready to use it in the second half of january or in february. Sorry, but I’m not going to search for the news, because I’m sure of have reading it.
I looked for the revised readiness date and couldn’t find one before the recent attack. The readiness schedule didn’t get pushed back until after the Christmas day attack, probably as reputation damage control, and the only place that I saw it was here on SF attributed to “experts”. The official schedule is still 3 months, which is now.
If I were the Iranians and others depending on these systems as a deterrence, I’d be concerned about it. The fact that I’m getting a lot of flack from some people here, doesn’t mean that people in positions of responsibility aren’t looking at it along the lines that I’m describing.
It’s understandable that the Russians and Syrians may be sorting through operational issues getting these systems ready for their combat debut. There’s a lot riding on it. But the damage being done by the Jews shredding these systems deterrent capability against modern fighters is doing a lot of damage and putting the US withdrawal at risk. Which will make the war much more difficult to win. And increase ziocon pressure against Russia, China and their allies worldwide.
Search with: “S-300”, “Syria”, “end of january”. You will find several secondary sources referring, already in november, that the syrian crews will not be ready till the “end of january”. Anyway, even in a literal reading, the ‘now’ is not the last Cristmas day, but would be the day of tomorrow, or 02/10/2018 + within 3 months = 02/01/2019, and it’s obvious that we can’t read the ‘within 3 months’ on a literal form, because the man didn’t said ‘within exactly 3 months’
I just did it again there’s nothing there.
30/11/2018 ‘new S300 are not yet operational and won’t be until the end of January’
November 29, 2018 ‘since the Russian- S-300 air defense systems won’t be operational before the end of January’
When you search those quotes nothing comes up. Why don’t you provide links?
Okay, but aree you puting these signs ” ” in the search?
One – https://www.debka.com/iranian-air-freighters-now-routed-to-beirut-instead-of-syrian-air-bases/ search in the news by “end of”
Two – https://glblgeopolitics.wordpress.com/category/syria/
#3 was after the attack, 1 and 2 are the same from a source below used toilet paper. None of them rise to the level of credible or official. They’re rubbish. It’s nothing that I’d use for respectable analysis. What’s official is that the systems should be online now.
Well, the rubbish sources are within the three months, and ‘now’ is the two of January, not the Christmas day, so we can suspect that the israelis made this attack knowing the S300 weren’t yet operational.
The S-300s were operational 2 months ago. It’s the stand alone Syrian crews that would take UP TO 3 months to run them alone. You can quibble about a few days if you want. But there was already another attack before Christmas giving them a heads up that the Jews were resuming airstrikes.
“Shoigu said that Russian experts would teach Syrian personnel to operate S-300 air defense systems within three months.”
3 months was the outside time limit. They could have been and probably were ready before that. Especially with Russian personnel embedded with the crews.
With their russian crews, yes, they could have been used at any time, but as you know that isn’t the approach of the russian general staff.
I didn’t say with the Russian crews, you did. I said with Russian personnel embedded with the Syrian crews. Which is probably going to be an ongoing arrangement. And they’re supposed to be ready within 3 months. Not after 3 months.
Okay, even in a literal reading, 02/10/2018 + 3 months = 02/01/2019, but the Christmas day was on the 25/12/2018, and as I said making a literal reading isn’t reasonable. So, conclusion, even a literal reading can’t put the Christmas day out of the 3 months, or out of the literal or exact time limit.
“Shoigu said that Russian experts would teach Syrian personnel to operate S-300 air defense systems within three months.”
This means that the maximum time would be 3 months, worst case scenario. They may have done it in 2 months and were ready to go. But the order wasn’t given.
As you know two months aren’t three months, and as we already have debated all and now we are repeating ourselves, I propose that we’ll finish the discussion.
Within 3 months means 3 months or less. 2 months is within 3 months.
Yes, as the Christmas day, good night Richard.
It was understandable and justifiable that an escalation with the Jews was to be avoided when the war was taxing the capabilities of the Syrian government coalition earlier on. But now with the defeat and containment of the Jew’s and their collaborator’s proxy terrorists nearly complete. And the joint Turkish/Syrian operation against the secessionist Kurds progressing. The IDF’s escalation options are significantly reduced. Any type of ground invasion that would face a combined Syrian, Russian, Iranian, Iraqi, Hezbollah, and possibly Turkish response is unlikely. As would be a naval operation. The IDF is also unlikely to use artillery or surface to surface missile strikes that would draw return fire.
This leaves only mass airstrikes as the Israeli’s go to escalation option. If the S-300s are effective against non stealth fighters, that takes away that option. Which leaves the Jews with a small fleet of stealth fighters incapable of mass airstrikes, and possibly vulnerable to more advanced air defense systems that could be employed. If the S-300s are ineffective. Russia’s position will be weakened further, the US withdrawal may be called off completely, and the FUKUS terror axis may return to further armed provocations.
The only reason their strike was successful is because the cowardly Fake-Semites used 2 commercial airliners as cover after their 1st three attacked were completely nullified. The Syrian S-300 operators are still undergoing training and we all know the Russians aren’t going to shoot down FSAF(Fake-Semite Air Farce) Jets themselves unless directly attacked. All-in-all it’s another unfortunate incident but Israhell will eventually get the bloody nose they desperately seek when a whole squadron is sent out and don’t return, period.
Using the airliners as cover is temporary. The IAF planes could have been taken down prior to the airliners getting in the way, or once they were out of the way. The S-300s have been operational for 2 months now. The Syrians have been training on them since 2013, and with these units for 3 months. All prior reports said that the Syrian crews would be operational by now. And there’s nothing preventing joint Russian/Syrian crews from operating the units together.
The the crews weren’t ready explanation is running out of shelf life. And the political explanation can only be read as Russia selling out it’s allies to the evil Jews. The better justification would be the risk of missile parts or whole missiles being recovered outside of Syria by adversaries for reverse engineering purposes to find out what makes them tick. But NATO has had access to multiple S-300 systems for many years, has trained against older models for sometime now, and is familiar with what they are and how they’re made.
They were deployed to mitigate threats outside of Syrian airspace. The Pantsirs and sheer volume of other launchers in Syria has closed that airspace already. If they weren’t prepared to use them, the Russians shouldn’t have deployed them and put themselves in the position that they’re now in. Granted it’s still very early in their deployment and there’s plenty of time to prove their effectiveness or lack thereof. Until that’s done there’s no way around the damage to Russia’s standing that is currently being inflicted by the Jew’s fighter planes running circles around these systems and thumbing their noses at them.
S-300 Missiles: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/55a01ab213aefd5011b149e3153bb97429d4b3e7136304cd8c3660718de2a7cb.png
– S-300 missile system –
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-300_missile_system#Comparable_SAMs
S-400 Missiles: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d041dff2a4f44b315678c142acf9aef67175b2e1d4eef0f4a4a0ecea94bc7a0d.png
– S-400 missile system –
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_missile_system#Current_operators
The missiles that the S-300 and S-400 use look to be the same or close to it. The S-400’s advantage is in electronics and radar. The S-400 electronics and radar can run S-300 launchers. It looks to me like Syria’s 3 battalions of S-300s are effectively full S-400 systems, or close to it. With full satcom integration the Syrian S-300 launchers are effectively S-400 launchers with anti stealth capability.
“96L6E radar and equipment work separately (100 metres), 96L6E2 export version has the capability to track a maximum 100 targets. In mountainous terrain the system is resistant to false returns or clutter. Replaces the radar to detect low-level radar targets and conduct radar sector review. Omnidirectional to detect all aircraft types, including low-observable (not against ballistic missiles). Can perform the functions of a command post for battalions of S-300 ”
– S-400 missile system –
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_missile_system#Current_operators
Happy New Year RichardD. Relax, enjoy, stop worrying. The jews lost it long time ago, the moment the Russians stepped in. There is no time or space for reverse. Talking to yourself is a sign of madness, you know. Take your pill and be a good jew-boy.
I’ll stick with the truth, reason, and the facts. When they change I’ll adjust accordingly. Being approved by people who are dismissive of truth, reason, facts, and those who value them isn’t important to me. You’re the one afraid to debate issues, not me. Because you know that you’l lose and appear foolish. Though you’re doing a pretty good job of it on your own.
Well, thank you. I do not give a damn penny for your opinion.
That’s because truth, reason and facts aren’t important to you.
No, richard, you are wrong. It is because you are beyond help.
Another dodge from a loser. What is it about S-300s currently have zero deterrent value against IAF fighters that you don’t understand?
Israel vs Russia https://cdn.drawception.com/images/panels/2013/7-28/XTM8yc4Ogd-2.png https://drawception.com/game/XTM8yc4Ogd/sick-of-bullies-kicking-sand-in-your-face/
Looks like Kurds are going to repeat same mistake as Afrin & lose Manbij. They will then blame the SAA for not defending them overlooking the fact they refused to hand over control of the city.
looks like. But then SAA why should they give a shit what kurds want or not? afrin and the rest of the land the kurds occupy, is syrian land, not theirs to give or to take.
Good day Promitheas, there were no SAA troops in the north of Manbij, I posted 15 minutes ago some information about it.
SDF losing time very fast. Turkey is against division of any country at its border and will take care of Syria and Iraq because the US backed SDF terrorists don’t listen. SDF are crocks .
Good night Rob, here is a little news for you to investigate and comment, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-defense-minister-visits-syria-vows-to-fight-isis/
This is truth or there’s some Almasdar’s error?
The Kurds and Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG, SDF) proof again and again how stupid they are. No wonder the US uses them and abandons them every time.
Like beaten dogs, matter how battered and bruised they always return to their owner for more punishment.
stupid they are not. Totally controlled by the zios yes. Their master plan now is to bring in direct collision russians & syrians against the turks something they been trying to achieve also in idlip and still do. In short they execute the same plan russia executed, against nato in the area, in reverse.
Is called turning the tables on your enemies.
Their so called masterplan sounds arrogant and stupid too. Fooling 3 countries while being used and abandon by the US again and again and again. Being paid by the Pentagon to fight other terrorist groups paid by the Pentagon. Just look at all their mistakes in iraq
none of the participants fools any one, or themselves they are fully aware of the predicament they put themselves into. what you see is allegedly the correcting moves, so dont relay on them for conclusions.
Erdogan just cannot be trusted. Just when he is in the same room with you you should check your for your wallet once every ten seconds. When he walks by you keep an eye on him at all times for he will plant a knife in your back. He makes the devil and a ‘you get 3 wishes’ djinn look trustworthy by comparison, if only because with them there is at least a tiny chance that they will at least deliver what they promised. The only good thing about Erdogan is that he is cartoonishly evil and thus only mildly competent in his evil. I have pity for the people of Turkey that they have to suffer under his rule, as I know a few people from Turkey so I know they aren’t all like him.
Kurdish Retards, never learning from their mistakes. Still hoping against hope that their Yanki/IsraHelli Cockroach sponsors will bail them out which of course the won’t. Let the Turks be their executioners, rather than the SAA their saviors.
even if that means for syria to lose her oil fields to the turks with no chance to get them back in this century again unless they go to a total war with turkey that it seems is what the west so much desire? Or you think all this theater of US pulling out is accidental, bringing not only the kurds but also SAA in direct contact with the SAA army and the turkish army?
Get in on the South East after the SDF finish the alleged ISIS and move upwards for 2 days – BINGO; the SDF will not attack.
Yes and deflecting the liberation of Idlib ,plus the necessity to place SAA elite troops in Deir Ezzor.
The meetings of Turkish and Russian ministers in Moscow last Saturday, Mevlut Tsavusoglu Foreign Minister, Hulusy Akar Minister of Defense, Ibrahim Kalin spokesman, Hakan Fidan, secretary of intelligence and Sergey Lavrov Russian Foreign Minister, may have shaped the political scene in favor of the Turks if indeed, the Syrian troops that had entered Manbij were withdrawn; if they had stayed then Turkey lost the guardian’s game, and its movements are jerking and prestigious moves for national and external consumption.
There were no SAA troops north of Manbij, in the news of the last two days the information was that the SAA around Manbij have formed three flanks, west, east and south, the north, till now, is an open gate to a trap. If the turkish forces will attack by there, the north front, they will be under fire from west, east and south.
I think that soon afrin 2.0 will start
Regarding the debates on S-300 and S-400 in Syria. I suspect the reason for hold back is not to show ones hand. Israel, US and allies are provoking the use of these systems to gain intel – that can then be used for bigger plans elsewhere I suspect. This is chess at its finest.
Good to see you back on this new year, in any case, the syrian crews of the S300 only ‘now’, in the best of the cases, would be ready, and the more reasonable is to consider the ‘now’ till the ‘end of january’.
thanks, and happy new year to you. I have been busy writing a complex analysis paper. have to complete end of this week, then more time to post and read comments etc… :)
You may be right as well on the S-300 in Syria and we should pay close attention to developments in Syria and Yemen, Balkins, Donbass, South China Sea and of course Trump’s moon base with dedicated phased harmonic tweeting arrays….
Exactly
Erdogan’s saying the invasion is on hold, but why is he ammassing so many, soldiers and vehicles on the northern border at Al Hasakah. He began moving troops and equipment to the northern areas even before he sent them to Manbij, is he planning a two pronged or even possibly a three pronged attack, that’s what I’d be doing if I was Erdogan. But if I was Assad, I’d be keeping an eye on the northern border too, and sending the SAA and Russians to any of the areas in the north where I could see a buildup of Turkish troops, that’s if they can get permission from Trump to do so, and since he hasn’t objected so far to having SAA and Russian troops imbedded next to his troops already, I don’t see any reason why he would object. So far it’s only Turkish troops heading north and not the proxies, that seems to indicate to me that Erdogan will most likely use them in a surgical strike to quickly take over an important town in the area, and justify the action as a genuine anti terrorist operation against the YPG. Once he’s got a foot in the door here, it will be very hard to dislodge him, he’ll have short supply route and be close to home territory, on the other hand, the SAA will be a long way from safe territory, and at least at the start of any conflict, have to rely on airdrops for supplies and reinforcements. Until the SAA and Russians have been deployed to the whole length of the Turkish/Syrian border, an imminent invasion is on the cards no matter what Erdogan says, to believe anything else would be stupidity.